Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 30 October–3 November 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 39.6% | 26.3% | 24.3–28.5% | 23.7–29.2% | 23.2–29.7% | 22.3–30.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 17.9% | 19.6% | 17.8–21.6% | 17.3–22.2% | 16.8–22.7% | 16.0–23.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 12.7% | 13.7% | 12.1–15.4% | 11.7–15.9% | 11.3–16.4% | 10.6–17.3% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 39.6% | 10.7% | 9.3–12.3% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.6–13.2% | 8.0–14.0% |
| Partit Popular | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.2–12.2% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.5–13.0% | 7.9–13.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.1–12.0% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.4–12.9% | 7.8–13.7% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 8.2% | 6.3% | 5.3–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.8–8.4% | 4.3–9.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí | 20 | 41 | 37–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 | 35–48 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25 | 26 | 24–30 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 21–33 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 16 | 17 | 15–21 | 15–22 | 14–22 | 14–23 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 29 | 15 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 11–21 |
| Partit Popular | 11 | 13 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 10–18 | 10–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú | 11 | 13 | 11–15 | 9–15 | 9–16 | 8–17 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 10 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 3–12 |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 36 | 2% | 98% | |
| 37 | 8% | 96% | |
| 38 | 9% | 87% | |
| 39 | 11% | 78% | |
| 40 | 10% | 67% | |
| 41 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 44% | |
| 43 | 16% | 31% | |
| 44 | 8% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98% | |
| 24 | 10% | 96% | |
| 25 | 22% | 86% | Last Result |
| 26 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 27 | 10% | 41% | |
| 28 | 12% | 31% | |
| 29 | 8% | 20% | |
| 30 | 8% | 12% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 13% | 97% | |
| 16 | 26% | 84% | Last Result |
| 17 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 45% | |
| 19 | 8% | 29% | |
| 20 | 9% | 21% | |
| 21 | 5% | 12% | |
| 22 | 6% | 7% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 13 | 15% | 97% | |
| 14 | 7% | 81% | |
| 15 | 26% | 75% | Median |
| 16 | 11% | 49% | |
| 17 | 27% | 38% | |
| 18 | 7% | 11% | |
| 19 | 2% | 4% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 12 | 15% | 96% | |
| 13 | 34% | 81% | Median |
| 14 | 27% | 47% | |
| 15 | 7% | 20% | |
| 16 | 9% | 13% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 3% | 95% | |
| 11 | 20% | 92% | Last Result |
| 12 | 20% | 72% | |
| 13 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 37% | |
| 15 | 8% | 13% | |
| 16 | 2% | 5% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 6 | 3% | 96% | |
| 7 | 9% | 93% | |
| 8 | 44% | 84% | Median |
| 9 | 31% | 40% | |
| 10 | 8% | 9% | Last Result |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú | 63 | 70 | 83% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú | 60 | 69 | 72% | 65–73 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 62–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 59 | 65 | 17% | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 | 57–72 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 52 | 58 | 0.1% | 54–62 | 53–63 | 53–63 | 51–65 |
| Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 49 | 56 | 0% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 49–63 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 5% | 96% | |
| 67 | 8% | 91% | |
| 68 | 10% | 83% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 73% | Median |
| 70 | 12% | 61% | |
| 71 | 13% | 49% | |
| 72 | 12% | 36% | |
| 73 | 10% | 24% | |
| 74 | 6% | 14% | |
| 75 | 4% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Catalunya en Comú
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 3% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 94% | |
| 66 | 8% | 89% | |
| 67 | 10% | 81% | |
| 68 | 12% | 72% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 70 | 14% | 46% | |
| 71 | 12% | 32% | |
| 72 | 10% | 20% | |
| 73 | 6% | 11% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 6% | 92% | |
| 62 | 10% | 86% | |
| 63 | 12% | 76% | |
| 64 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 65 | 12% | 51% | |
| 66 | 12% | 39% | |
| 67 | 10% | 27% | |
| 68 | 8% | 17% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 9% | |
| 70 | 3% | 4% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 53 | 4% | 98% | |
| 54 | 8% | 94% | |
| 55 | 10% | 87% | |
| 56 | 12% | 77% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 65% | |
| 58 | 13% | 51% | |
| 59 | 11% | 38% | |
| 60 | 10% | 27% | |
| 61 | 7% | 17% | |
| 62 | 5% | 10% | |
| 63 | 3% | 5% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya–Catalunya Sí – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 50 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 96% | |
| 53 | 6% | 91% | |
| 54 | 11% | 85% | |
| 55 | 13% | 74% | |
| 56 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 57 | 12% | 49% | |
| 58 | 12% | 36% | |
| 59 | 9% | 24% | |
| 60 | 8% | 15% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 30 October–3 November 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 710
- Simulations done: 8,388,608
- Error estimate: 0.59%