Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 10–13 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 14.9% | 13.9–16.1% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.3–16.7% | 12.8–17.3% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.7–13.8% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.2–14.4% | 10.7–15.0% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.3–12.3% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.8–12.8% | 9.4–13.4% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.8% | 8.9–10.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.4–11.3% | 8.0–11.8% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.9–9.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.5–10.2% | 7.1–10.7% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.2–8.9% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.8–9.4% | 6.4–9.8% |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.6% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.2–9.6% |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 7.0–8.6% | 6.7–8.9% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.2–9.6% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.6% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.7% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.7% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.8% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.1% |
| De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 76% | 100% | Median |
| 6 | 24% | 24% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98.8% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
De Nederlandse Alliantie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 9–11 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij van de Arbeid (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 10 | 22% | 25% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 96% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks (Greens/EFA) – Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 25% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 74% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 26% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 4% | 77% | |
| 2 | 73% | 73% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–13 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1682
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.57%