Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 6 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 7.4% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.7–8.8% | 5.6–9.1% | 5.4–9.6% |
| 24 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.6–6.4% | 5.5–6.5% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% |
| 23–24 October 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
7.7% | 7.1–8.4% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.7–8.7% | 6.5–9.1% |
| 17–20 October 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
7.9% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.7–9.4% | 6.3–9.9% |
| 17 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 7.3% | 6.7–8.0% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.6% |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
7.9% | 7.2–8.7% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.9–9.0% | 6.6–9.4% |
| 10–13 October 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
8.6% | 7.8–9.6% | 7.5–9.9% | 7.3–10.1% | 6.9–10.6% |
| 10 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 8.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–6 October 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
8.2% | 7.5–9.0% | 7.2–9.2% | 7.1–9.4% | 6.7–9.8% |
| 3 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 8.6% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.7–9.7% | 7.4–10.0% |
| 26–29 September 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
7.3% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.9–9.0% | 5.4–9.5% |
| 26–29 September 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
7.3% | 6.6–8.1% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.5% | 5.9–8.9% |
| 26 September 2025 | Peil.nl | 8.6% | 8.0–9.3% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.7–9.7% | 7.4–10.0% |
| 19 September 2025 | Peil.nl | 8.0% | 7.4–8.6% | 7.2–8.8% | 7.0–9.0% | 6.8–9.3% |
| 13–15 September 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
8.0% | 7.3–8.9% | 7.1–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.8% |
| 6 September 2025 | Peil.nl | 7.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
6.1% | 5.4–6.8% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.1–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% |
| 22–25 August 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.7–7.9% |
| 25 August 2025 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.6–6.4% | 5.5–6.5% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.2–6.8% |
| 8–9 August 2025 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| 25–28 July 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
5.1% | 4.5–5.9% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.8–6.8% |
| 25–28 July 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 4.9% | 4.3–5.6% | 4.1–5.8% | 4.0–6.0% | 3.7–6.4% |
| 25–26 July 2025 | Peil.nl | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| 4–5 July 2025 | Peil.nl | 6.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–23 June 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
6.2% | 5.5–7.0% | 5.3–7.2% | 5.2–7.4% | 4.8–7.8% |
| 21 June 2025 | Peil.nl | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| 13–16 June 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% |
| 6–9 June 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| 6–7 June 2025 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 5–6 June 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% |
| 30–31 May 2025 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 23–26 May 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
2.2% | 1.8–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.4–3.3% |
| 9–12 May 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| 25–28 April 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.4% |
| 25–26 April 2025 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 11–14 April 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.4% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.8% |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 28–29 March 2025 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 21–24 March 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.5% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.8–2.5% |
| 14–17 March 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.7% |
| 7–8 March 2025 | Peil.nl | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| 21–24 February 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.5% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| 21–22 February 2025 | Peil.nl | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| 14–17 February 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 1.9% | 1.6–2.3% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.2–2.8% |
| 24–27 January 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% |
| 24–25 January 2025 | Peil.nl | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 17–20 January 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 1.7% | 1.4–2.1% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.6% |
| 24–28 December 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| 13–14 December 2024 | Peil.nl | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 6–9 December 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% |
| 22–25 November 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| 22–23 November 2024 | Peil.nl | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 9–11 November 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0.8% | 0.6–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| 8–9 November 2024 | Peil.nl | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 25–28 October 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
1.0% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| 18–21 October 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% |
| 12 October 2024 | Peil.nl | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 28 September 2024 | Peil.nl | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| 20–23 September 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0.8% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| 20–23 September 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 1.4% | 1.1–1.8% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.2% |
| 13–16 September 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% |
| 14–15 September 2024 | Peil.nl | 0.7% | 0.5–0.8% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% |
| 23–26 August 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0.5% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
| 26–29 July 2024 | Ipsos I&O EenVandaag |
0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| 6 July 2024 | Peil.nl | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| 28–29 June 2024 | Peil.nl | 0.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21–24 June 2024 | Ipsos I&O EenVandaag |
0.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 14–17 June 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 32% | 98% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 36% | 45% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 8% | 9% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 6 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 24 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 23–24 October 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 17–20 October 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 17 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 13–15 October 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 10–13 October 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 10 October 2025 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 3–6 October 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| 3 October 2025 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 26–29 September 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 |
| 26–29 September 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 26 September 2025 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| 19 September 2025 | Peil.nl | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 13–15 September 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 6 September 2025 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 29 August–1 September 2025 | Ipsos I&O Pauw & De Wit |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 22–25 August 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 25 August 2025 | Peil.nl | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 8–9 August 2025 | Peil.nl | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| 25–28 July 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 25–28 July 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 25–26 July 2025 | Peil.nl | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 4–5 July 2025 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 20–23 June 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| 21 June 2025 | Peil.nl | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13–16 June 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 6–9 June 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6–7 June 2025 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 5–6 June 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 30–31 May 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 23–26 May 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9–12 May 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 25–28 April 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25–26 April 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 11–14 April 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 3–4 April 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 28–29 March 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 21–24 March 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–17 March 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| 7–8 March 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–24 February 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21–22 February 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–17 February 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24–27 January 2025 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24–25 January 2025 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17–20 January 2025 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24–28 December 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–14 December 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6–9 December 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22–25 November 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22–23 November 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9–11 November 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8–9 November 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25–28 October 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18–21 October 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 October 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 September 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–23 September 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20–23 September 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13–16 September 2024 | Ipsos I&O | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14–15 September 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23–26 August 2024 | Verian EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26–29 July 2024 | Ipsos I&O EenVandaag |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 July 2024 | Peil.nl | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28–29 June 2024 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 21–24 June 2024 | Ipsos I&O EenVandaag |
|||||
| 14–17 June 2024 | Ipsos I&O |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 36% | 36% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |