Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O, 1–2 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 13.2% | 12.2–14.4% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.7–15.0% | 11.2–15.5% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.7–13.8% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.1–14.4% | 10.7–14.9% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.1% | 10.2–12.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.7–12.7% | 9.2–13.2% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.4% | 8.5–10.4% | 8.3–10.7% | 8.1–10.9% | 7.7–11.4% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.4–10.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.9–10.7% | 7.5–11.2% |
| Progressief Nederland (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.7–10.2% |
| Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.3% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.1–9.8% | 6.7–10.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.9% | 7.1–8.8% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.7–9.3% | 6.3–9.8% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 0.9–2.6% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.5% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.5% |
| De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Progressief Nederland (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 |
| Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 100% | |
| 5 | 86% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 100% | |
| 5 | 76% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 53% | 99.9% | Median |
| 4 | 47% | 47% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 92% | 98% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Progressief Nederland (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressief Nederland (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 91% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 78% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 40% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 88% | Median |
| 2 | 29% | 29% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 54% | 54% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 63% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 37% | 37% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
De Nederlandse Alliantie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 16% | 93% | |
| 10 | 68% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 49% | |
| 5 | 35% | 35% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 37% | 100% | |
| 4 | 55% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 40% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 44% | 93% | |
| 2 | 19% | 49% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 30% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–2 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1649
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.95%