Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 11–12 September 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) 0.0% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0.0% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0.0% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0.0% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0.0% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Progressief Nederland (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 8.4–9.7% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4%
Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.0% 8.4–9.7% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0.0% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
DENK (*) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) 0 4 4 4 4 4–5
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 4 4 4 4 4
Progressief Nederland (S&D) 0 3 3 3 3 3–4
Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) 0 3 3 3 3 3
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
50Plus (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
DENK (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
ChristenUnie (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Democraten 66 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 98.9% 100% Median
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.7% 100% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 98.8% 98.9% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 100% 100% Median

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 99.6% 99.6% Median
5 0% 0%  

Progressief Nederland (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressief Nederland (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 98% 100% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 98% 98% Median
5 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 99.5% 99.5% Median
4 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0% 0%  

50Plus (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

DENK (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

ChristenUnie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) 0 8 0% 8 8 8 8–9
Forum voor Democratie (ESN) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 3–4
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) 0 4 0% 4 4 4 4
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0% 1 1 0–1 0–1

Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 98.8% 99.8% Median
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 99.7% 100% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 98.8% 98.9% Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 100% 100% Median

Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) – Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 97% 97% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations