Opinion Poll by Ipsos I&O for Café Kockelmann, 12–14 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.1% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.7% | 10.1–14.2% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.8–12.8% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.3–13.4% | 9.8–13.9% |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 9.2–11.1% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.3–12.1% |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0.0% | 9.9% | 9.0–10.9% | 8.8–11.2% | 8.6–11.4% | 8.2–11.9% |
| Progressief Nederland (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.3–10.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.5–11.1% |
| Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.3–10.1% | 8.0–10.4% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.5–11.1% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.3% | 7.5–9.2% | 7.3–9.5% | 7.1–9.7% | 6.7–10.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.3–7.9% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.4% | 5.6–8.8% |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.8–5.1% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.5% | 3.3–5.9% |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.8–4.2% | 2.7–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.8% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.2–4.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| DENK (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.4% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% |
| De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Democraten 66 (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Progressief Nederland (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| 50Plus (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| ChristenUnie (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| DENK (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 37% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 13% | |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 30% | 100% | |
| 4 | 70% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 34% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Progressief Nederland (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressief Nederland (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 31% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progressief Nederland (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 25% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 98% | 99.3% | Median |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.7% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 38% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 42% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
DENK (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
De Nederlandse Alliantie (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the De Nederlandse Alliantie (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
Democraten 66 (RE) – Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 14% | 100% | |
| 7 | 37% | 86% | |
| 8 | 49% | 49% | Median |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 (ECR) – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 33% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 62% | 67% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 87% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 13% | |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren (GUE/NGL) – Socialistische Partij (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 37% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos I&O
- Commissioner(s): Café Kockelmann
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1697
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.19%