Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26–27 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
22.0% |
21.0–23.0% |
20.7–23.2% |
20.5–23.5% |
20.1–24.0% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
16.0% |
15.1–16.9% |
14.9–17.1% |
14.7–17.3% |
14.3–17.8% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
10.6% |
9.9–11.4% |
9.7–11.6% |
9.6–11.8% |
9.3–12.2% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
9.3% |
8.7–10.1% |
8.5–10.3% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.8% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
6.0% |
5.5–6.6% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.2% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
6.0% |
5.5–6.6% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.2% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
6.0% |
5.5–6.6% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.2% |
GroenLinks |
5.2% |
4.7% |
4.2–5.2% |
4.1–5.3% |
4.0–5.5% |
3.7–5.8% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
4.0% |
3.6–4.5% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.5–0.9% |
0.5–1.0% |
0.4–1.0% |
0.4–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
35 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
98.5% |
98.6% |
Last Result, Median |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
17 |
98.7% |
99.3% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
15 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
9 |
0.2% |
2% |
Last Result |
10 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
98.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
10 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
8 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
9 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
10 |
98.5% |
98.5% |
Median |
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
8 |
98.7% |
98.7% |
Last Result, Median |
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
5 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
6 |
98% |
98% |
Last Result, Median |
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
5 |
98.7% |
98.9% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
1.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
98% |
98.7% |
Median |
6 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
2% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
3 |
99.0% |
99.0% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
98.5% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
1.5% |
1.5% |
Last Result |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
1 |
99.7% |
99.7% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
87 |
86 |
100% |
86 |
86 |
86 |
85–86 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
86 |
85 |
100% |
85 |
85 |
85 |
83–85 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
78 |
99.5% |
78 |
78 |
78 |
77–78 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
77 |
100% |
77 |
77 |
77 |
76–77 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
75 |
0.2% |
75 |
75 |
75 |
75 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
72 |
0.2% |
72 |
72 |
72 |
71–72 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
70 |
68 |
0% |
68 |
68 |
68 |
67–68 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
67 |
67 |
0% |
67 |
67 |
67 |
67–69 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
65 |
0% |
65 |
65 |
65 |
65–66 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
62 |
0% |
62 |
62 |
62 |
60–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
61 |
0% |
61 |
61 |
61 |
59–61 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
61 |
60 |
0% |
60 |
60 |
60 |
58–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
59 |
0% |
59 |
59 |
59 |
58–59 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
58 |
0% |
58 |
58 |
58 |
57–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
58 |
57 |
0% |
57 |
57 |
57 |
56–59 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
48 |
0% |
48 |
48 |
48 |
47–49 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
48 |
47 |
0% |
47 |
47 |
47 |
46–47 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
43 |
43 |
0% |
43 |
43 |
43 |
43–46 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
38 |
0% |
38 |
38 |
38 |
37–38 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
29 |
28 |
0% |
28 |
28 |
28 |
27–28 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
24 |
23 |
0% |
23 |
23 |
23 |
22–24 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
86 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
87 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
88 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
89 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
90 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
83 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
84 |
1.0% |
98.9% |
|
85 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
86 |
0% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
87 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
88 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
76 |
0% |
99.5% |
Majority |
77 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
78 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
79 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
76 |
2% |
100% |
Majority |
77 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
78 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
79 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
82 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
74 |
0% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
75 |
99.3% |
99.5% |
Median |
76 |
0% |
0.2% |
Majority |
77 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
72 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
73 |
0% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
74 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
68 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
69 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
68 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
69 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
70 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
64 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
65 |
98% |
99.5% |
Median |
66 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
67 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
62 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
63 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
61 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
62 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
57 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
0.6% |
98.6% |
|
60 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
61 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
59 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
60 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
1.0% |
100% |
Last Result |
58 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
59 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
57 |
98% |
99.4% |
Median |
58 |
0% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
59 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
48 |
98% |
99.4% |
Median |
49 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
47 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
48 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
44 |
0% |
2% |
|
45 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
37 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
98% |
98% |
Median |
39 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
98.7% |
99.0% |
Median |
29 |
0% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
30 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
22 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
23 |
98% |
99.0% |
Median |
24 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–27 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.46%