Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26–27 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.7–23.2% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Democraten 66 15.0% 16.0% 15.1–16.9% 14.9–17.1% 14.7–17.3% 14.3–17.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
GroenLinks 5.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Volt Europa 2.4% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
50Plus 1.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 34 34 34 34 34–37
Democraten 66 24 24 24 24 24 23–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 17 17 17 17 15–18
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 14 14 14 14 13–14
Socialistische Partij 9 8 8 8 8 8–10
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 9 9 9 9–10
Forum voor Democratie 8 10 10 10 10 9–10
GroenLinks 8 8 8 8 8 7–8
Partij voor de Dieren 6 6 6 6 6 4–6
ChristenUnie 5 5 5 5 5 4–5
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 5 5 5 5 4–6
Volt Europa 3 3 3 3 3 3–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2 2 2 2–3
50Plus 1 1 1 1 1 1
Bij1 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 1 1 1 1 1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 98% 100% Last Result, Median
35 1.0% 2%  
36 0% 0.6%  
37 0.6% 0.6%  
38 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 1.4% 100%  
24 98.5% 98.6% Last Result, Median
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 0% 99.3%  
17 98.7% 99.3% Last Result, Median
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 0% 99.6%  
13 0.6% 99.6%  
14 98.7% 99.0% Median
15 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 98% 100% Median
9 0.2% 2% Last Result
10 1.5% 1.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 1.5% 100%  
10 98.5% 98.5% Median
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.3% 100%  
8 98.7% 98.7% Last Result, Median
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.2% 100%  
5 0.6% 98.8%  
6 98% 98% Last Result, Median
7 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 98.7% 98.9% Last Result, Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 1.3% 100%  
5 98% 98.7% Median
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 98% 100% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100%  
3 99.0% 99.0% Last Result, Median
4 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 98.5% 100% Median
3 1.5% 1.5% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Median
1 2% 2% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 99.7% 99.7% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 87 86 100% 86 86 86 85–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 86 85 100% 85 85 85 83–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 99.5% 78 78 78 77–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 77 100% 77 77 77 76–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 0.2% 75 75 75 75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 72 0.2% 72 72 72 71–72
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 70 68 0% 68 68 68 67–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 67 0% 67 67 67 67–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 65 0% 65 65 65 65–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 62 0% 62 62 62 60–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 61 0% 61 61 61 59–61
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 61 60 0% 60 60 60 58–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 59 59 59 58–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 58 0% 58 58 58 57–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 58 57 0% 57 57 57 56–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 48 0% 48 48 48 47–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 48 47 0% 47 47 47 46–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 43 0% 43 43 43 43–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 38 0% 38 38 38 37–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 29 28 0% 28 28 28 27–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 24 23 0% 23 23 23 22–24

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 1.0% 100%  
86 98.7% 99.0% Median
87 0% 0.3% Last Result
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 1.0% 100%  
84 1.0% 98.9%  
85 98% 98% Median
86 0% 0.2% Last Result
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.4% 100%  
75 0% 99.5%  
76 0% 99.5% Majority
77 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
78 98.7% 99.0% Median
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 2% 100% Majority
77 98% 98% Median
78 0% 0.3% Last Result
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.4% 100%  
73 0% 99.5%  
74 0% 99.5% Last Result
75 99.3% 99.5% Median
76 0% 0.2% Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.0% 100%  
72 98.7% 99.0% Median
73 0% 0.2% Last Result
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.2%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 98.7% 99.0% Median
69 0% 0.3%  
70 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 98% 100% Last Result, Median
68 1.1% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0% 99.5%  
65 98% 99.5% Median
66 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 1.0% 100%  
61 0% 99.0% Last Result
62 98.7% 99.0% Median
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 1.0% 100%  
60 0% 99.0% Last Result
61 98.7% 99.0% Median
62 0% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0% 99.6%  
58 1.0% 99.6%  
59 0.6% 98.6%  
60 98% 98% Median
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 1.0% 99.9% Last Result
59 98.7% 99.0% Median
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.2%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 1.0% 100% Last Result
58 98.7% 99.0% Median
59 0% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.2%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.6% 100%  
57 98% 99.4% Median
58 0% 1.3% Last Result
59 1.0% 1.3%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.6% 100%  
48 98% 99.4% Median
49 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.4% 100%  
44 0% 99.6%  
45 0% 99.6%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 98.7% 99.0% Median
48 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 98% 100% Last Result, Median
44 0% 2%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.6%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 0% 99.6%  
36 0% 99.6%  
37 2% 99.6%  
38 98% 98% Median
39 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 0% 99.6%  
27 0.6% 99.5%  
28 98.7% 99.0% Median
29 0% 0.3% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.4% 100%  
21 0% 99.6%  
22 0.6% 99.6%  
23 98% 99.0% Median
24 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations