Forum voor Democratie
Voting Intentions
Last result: 5.0% (General Election of 17 March 2021)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2.6% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| 21 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 2.6% | 2.4–2.9% | 2.3–3.0% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% |
| 19–21 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% |
| 20–21 November 2023 | I&O Research | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.9% |
| 18–20 November 2023 | I&O Research | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 12–14 November 2023 | I&O Research | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% |
| 10–13 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.8% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.7% |
| 10–11 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 6–7 November 2023 | I&O Research | 3.2% | 2.8–3.7% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
| 3–4 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% |
| 27–30 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.7% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% |
| 27–28 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 22–24 October 2023 | I&O Research | 2.8% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.1% |
| 20–21 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| 13–14 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 6–9 October 2023 | I&O Research | 3.6% | 3.1–4.1% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.7% |
| 6–7 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–25 September 2023 | I&O Research | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| 22–24 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.4% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| 22–23 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 8–11 September 2023 | I&O Research | 2.6% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.7–3.8% |
| 8–9 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 1–4 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.1% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.4–3.3% | 1.2–3.7% |
| 1–2 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 25–26 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 23–24 August 2023 | I&O Research | 2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.3% |
| 18–19 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 21 August–24 July 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 14–17 July 2023 | I&O Research | 2.9% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.8% | 2.0–4.1% |
| 14–15 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 23–25 June 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.2% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.7% |
| 16–17 June 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 9–12 June 2023 | I&O Research | 2.7% | 2.3–3.2% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.7% |
| 26–29 May 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.6% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| 19–20 May 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 12–15 May 2023 | I&O Research | 1.9% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24 April 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| 21–22 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 14–17 April 2023 | I&O Research | 2.3% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 24–27 March 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| 23–24 March 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 3.0–3.7% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.1% |
| 17–27 February 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.0% | 2.7–3.3% | 2.6–3.4% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.4–3.6% |
| 24–25 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 17–18 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 13 February 2023 | I&O Research | 3.1% | 2.7–3.6% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% |
| 10–11 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–30 January 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
| 13–16 January 2023 | I&O Research | 2.9% | 2.5–3.4% | 2.4–3.5% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.9% |
| 13–14 January 2023 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 16–19 December 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| 16–17 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 9–12 December 2022 | I&O Research | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% |
| 2–3 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 25–28 November 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| 25–26 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 11–14 November 2022 | I&O Research | 3.2% | 2.7–3.7% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.3% |
| 11–12 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 21–24 October 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| 22–23 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 14–17 October 2022 | I&O Research | 3.2% | 2.8–3.8% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% |
| 14–15 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 23–26 September 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| 23–24 September 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 9–12 September 2022 | I&O Research | 3.8% | 3.3–4.5% | 3.1–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.8–5.1% |
| 26–29 August 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.7% | 2.1–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.8–3.9% | 1.6–4.3% |
| 26–27 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 5–6 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 22–25 July 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 15–18 July 2022 | I&O Research | 2.8% | 2.4–3.4% | 2.3–3.5% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% |
| 8–9 July 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 24–27 June 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.3–5.3% |
| 24–25 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 17–18 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 10–13 June 2022 | I&O Research | 2.9% | 2.5–3.5% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.1% |
| 10–11 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 27–30 May 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 May 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 May 2022 | Kantar | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| 13–16 May 2022 | I&O Research | 3.3% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% |
| 13–14 May 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 22–25 April 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.9% |
| 22–23 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 8–11 April 2022 | I&O Research | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.0–3.8% |
| 8–9 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 1–2 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 March 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.8% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 25–26 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 18–19 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 11–12 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 March 2022 | Kantar | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 25–28 February 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| 26–27 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 18–19 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| 11–14 February 2022 | I&O Research | 3.0% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% |
| 11–12 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| 4–5 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–31 January 2022 | Kantar | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 28–29 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4.2% | 3.5–5.1% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| 21–22 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| 14–17 January 2022 | I&O Research | 3.3% | 2.9–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% |
| 14–15 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 15–20 December 2021 | Kantar | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| 17–20 December 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4.0% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| 17–18 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 12 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 3–6 December 2021 | I&O Research | 2.6% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% |
| 3–5 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 26–29 November 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| 26–27 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 19–20 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | 3.6–4.5% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% |
| 12–15 November 2021 | I&O Research | 4.2% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.5% |
| 5–9 November 2021 | Kantar | 4.0% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| 7 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–25 October 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| 15–16 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 October 2021 | I&O Research | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–27 September 2021 | Ipsos | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 4.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–20 September 2021 | Kantar | 2.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–13 September 2021 | I&O Research | 3.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–30 August 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 August 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–26 July 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| 23–24 July 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 9–12 July 2021 | I&O Research | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% |
| 25–28 June 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| 27 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 20 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 12 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| 4–7 June 2021 | I&O Research | 3.5% | 3.0–4.1% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% |
| 4–5 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 28–29 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 21–23 May 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| 21–22 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 14–15 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| 7–9 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.0% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.3–6.4% |
| 30 April–3 May 2021 | I&O Research | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| 30 April–1 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% |
| 23–24 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% |
| 16–19 April 2021 | Ipsos | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.1–6.5% |
| 16–17 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.4–6.6% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.2–6.9% | 4.9–7.2% |
| 9–12 April 2021 | I&O Research | 4.7% | 4.1–5.4% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.6–6.1% |
| 9–10 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| 3–4 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| 26–27 March 2021 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Forum voor Democratie.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 0.5–1.5% | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 47% | 98.5% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 51% | 52% | Median |
| 3.5–4.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Seats
Last result: 8 seats (General Election of 17 March 2021)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 21 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| 19–21 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 20–21 November 2023 | I&O Research | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–6 |
| 18–20 November 2023 | I&O Research | |||||
| 17–18 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 12–14 November 2023 | I&O Research | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| 10–13 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 10–11 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 6–7 November 2023 | I&O Research | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 3–4 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 27–30 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| 27–28 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 22–24 October 2023 | I&O Research | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 20–21 October 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 13–16 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 |
| 13–14 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 6–9 October 2023 | I&O Research | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 6–7 October 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 22–25 September 2023 | I&O Research | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 22–24 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 22–23 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 8–11 September 2023 | I&O Research | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 8–9 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 1–4 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| 1–2 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 25–26 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 23–24 August 2023 | I&O Research | 4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 18–19 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 21 August–24 July 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 14–17 July 2023 | I&O Research | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| 14–15 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 23–25 June 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 1–6 |
| 16–17 June 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 9–12 June 2023 | I&O Research | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 26–29 May 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 19–20 May 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 12–15 May 2023 | I&O Research | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 24 April 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 21–22 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 14–17 April 2023 | I&O Research | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 24–27 March 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 23–24 March 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 17–27 February 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 24–25 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 17–18 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 13 February 2023 | I&O Research | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 10–11 February 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 27–30 January 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| 13–16 January 2023 | I&O Research | 3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| 13–14 January 2023 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| 16–19 December 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7–8 |
| 16–17 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 9–12 December 2022 | I&O Research | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 |
| 2–3 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 25–28 November 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| 25–26 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 |
| 11–14 November 2022 | I&O Research | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 11–12 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5–6 |
| 21–24 October 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 | 1–5 |
| 22–23 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| 14–17 October 2022 | I&O Research | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 14–15 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 23–26 September 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| 23–24 September 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 9–12 September 2022 | I&O Research | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| 26–29 August 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| 26–27 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 5–6 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 22–25 July 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 15–18 July 2022 | I&O Research | 4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 8–9 July 2022 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 |
| 24–27 June 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| 24–25 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–7 |
| 17–18 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
| 10–13 June 2022 | I&O Research | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 10–11 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 27–30 May 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
|||||
| 27–28 May 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 25–27 May 2022 | Kantar | 4 | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–7 |
| 13–16 May 2022 | I&O Research | 4 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| 13–14 May 2022 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 22–25 April 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| 22–23 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| 8–11 April 2022 | I&O Research | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 8–9 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 1–2 April 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 25–27 March 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| 25–26 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 18–19 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 11–12 March 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 9–11 March 2022 | Kantar | |||||
| 4–5 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 25–28 February 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–7 |
| 26–27 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| 18–19 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| 11–14 February 2022 | I&O Research | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 11–12 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 4–5 February 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 27–31 January 2022 | Kantar | 6 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| 28–29 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
6 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 21–22 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| 14–17 January 2022 | I&O Research | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 14–15 January 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 24–25 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 15–20 December 2021 | Kantar | 4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| 17–20 December 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| 17–18 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| 12 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| 3–6 December 2021 | I&O Research | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| 3–5 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 26–29 November 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| 26–27 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 19–20 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| 12–15 November 2021 | I&O Research | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| 5–9 November 2021 | Kantar | 7 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| 7 November 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 29–30 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 22–25 October 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| 15–16 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 8–11 October 2021 | I&O Research | |||||
| 8–9 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 1–2 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 24–27 September 2021 | Ipsos | |||||
| 24–25 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 17–20 September 2021 | Kantar | |||||
| 17–18 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 10–13 September 2021 | I&O Research | |||||
| 10–11 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 3–4 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 27–30 August 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
|||||
| 20–21 August 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 23–26 July 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| 23–24 July 2021 | Peil.nl | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 9–12 July 2021 | I&O Research | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| 25–28 June 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
4 | 4 | 4 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 27 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 20 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| 12 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| 4–7 June 2021 | I&O Research | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| 4–5 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| 28–29 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 21–23 May 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
3 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| 21–22 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 14–15 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 3 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| 7–9 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| 30 April–3 May 2021 | I&O Research | 8 | 8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| 30 April–1 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8–10 |
| 23–24 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8–10 |
| 16–19 April 2021 | Ipsos | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| 16–17 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| 9–12 April 2021 | I&O Research | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| 9–10 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 10 | 10 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| 3–4 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 26–27 March 2021 | Peil.nl | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9–10 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Forum voor Democratie.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 32% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 68% | Median |
| 4 | 17% | 17% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |