Partij voor de Vrijheid
Voting Intentions
Last result: 10.8% (General Election of 17 March 2021)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 18.3% | 17.0–19.6% | 16.6–19.8% | 16.4–20.1% | 15.8–20.4% |
| 21 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 19.3% | 18.6–19.9% | 18.4–20.1% | 18.3–20.3% | 18.0–20.6% |
| 19–21 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
17.9% | 16.9–19.0% | 16.6–19.3% | 16.4–19.6% | 15.9–20.1% |
| 20–21 November 2023 | I&O Research | 17.7% | 16.6–18.8% | 16.3–19.1% | 16.1–19.4% | 15.6–19.9% |
| 18–20 November 2023 | I&O Research | 16.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 17.3% | 16.4–18.2% | 16.2–18.4% | 15.9–18.7% | 15.5–19.1% |
| 12–14 November 2023 | I&O Research | 12.8% | 11.9–13.7% | 11.7–14.0% | 11.5–14.2% | 11.1–14.7% |
| 10–13 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.2% | 10.4–12.2% | 10.2–12.5% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.6–13.2% |
| 10–11 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 14.0% | 13.2–14.8% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.4–15.7% |
| 6–7 November 2023 | I&O Research | 11.2% | 10.4–12.1% | 10.2–12.4% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.6–13.1% |
| 3–4 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.5% | 11.8–13.4% | 11.6–13.6% | 11.4–13.8% | 11.0–14.2% |
| 27–30 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.6% | 10.3–12.2% | 10.1–12.5% | 9.9–12.7% | 9.5–13.2% |
| 27–28 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | 11.8–13.4% | 11.6–13.6% | 11.4–13.8% | 11.1–14.2% |
| 22–24 October 2023 | I&O Research | 11.9% | 10.9–13.0% | 10.6–13.3% | 10.3–13.6% | 9.9–14.1% |
| 20–21 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–16 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.5% | 10.3–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.6–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 13–14 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.3% | 12.1–14.5% | 11.7–14.9% |
| 6–9 October 2023 | I&O Research | 11.6% | 10.7–12.5% | 10.5–12.7% | 10.3–12.9% | 9.9–13.4% |
| 6–7 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–25 September 2023 | I&O Research | 11.5% | 10.4–12.6% | 10.1–12.9% | 9.9–13.2% | 9.4–13.8% |
| 22–24 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.4% | 10.2–12.7% | 9.8–13.1% | 9.6–13.5% | 9.0–14.2% |
| 22–23 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 8–11 September 2023 | I&O Research | 9.1% | 8.2–10.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.4–11.1% |
| 8–9 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.6–11.5% |
| 1–4 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
9.5% | 8.3–10.8% | 8.0–11.2% | 7.7–11.5% | 7.2–12.2% |
| 1–2 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.6–11.5% |
| 25–26 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.6–11.5% |
| 23–24 August 2023 | I&O Research | 8.6% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.6–9.8% | 7.4–10.0% | 7.0–10.5% |
| 18–19 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | 11.9–13.4% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| 21 August–24 July 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
12.1% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–13.9% | 10.2–14.3% | 9.6–15.0% |
| 14–17 July 2023 | I&O Research | 9.5% | 8.6–10.5% | 8.4–10.7% | 8.2–11.0% | 7.8–11.4% |
| 14–15 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 9.9% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.6–11.4% |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.5–10.3% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.8% |
| 23–25 June 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.2% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.4–12.2% |
| 16–17 June 2023 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.0–9.4% | 7.8–9.6% | 7.7–9.7% | 7.4–10.1% |
| 9–12 June 2023 | I&O Research | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.6–9.5% |
| 26–29 May 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
9.1% | 8.1–10.4% | 7.8–10.7% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.0–11.7% |
| 19–20 May 2023 | Peil.nl | 6.7% | 6.1–7.3% | 6.0–7.5% | 5.8–7.6% | 5.6–7.9% |
| 12–15 May 2023 | I&O Research | 8.6% | 7.8–9.5% | 7.6–9.7% | 7.4–10.0% | 7.0–10.4% |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Peil.nl | 6.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24 April 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
7.3% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| 21–22 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| 14–17 April 2023 | I&O Research | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| 24–27 March 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
7.8% | 6.8–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.3–9.6% | 5.8–10.2% |
| 23–24 March 2023 | Peil.nl | 6.0% | 5.5–6.5% | 5.4–6.7% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.1–7.0% |
| 17–27 February 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.5% | 9.9–11.0% | 9.8–11.2% | 9.7–11.3% | 9.4–11.6% |
| 24–25 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 17–18 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 13 February 2023 | I&O Research | 11.4% | 10.6–12.3% | 10.4–12.5% | 10.2–12.7% | 9.8–13.2% |
| 10–11 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–30 January 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.2% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.4–13.3% | 8.8–14.0% |
| 13–16 January 2023 | I&O Research | 11.5% | 10.7–12.4% | 10.5–12.6% | 10.3–12.8% | 9.9–13.2% |
| 13–14 January 2023 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | 11.9–13.4% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| 16–19 December 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.7% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.4–14.6% |
| 16–17 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.4% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.8–15.0% |
| 9–12 December 2022 | I&O Research | 11.4% | 10.5–12.3% | 10.3–12.6% | 10.1–12.8% | 9.7–13.3% |
| 2–3 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.4% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.8–15.0% |
| 25–28 November 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.3–13.6% | 10.0–13.9% | 9.4–14.6% |
| 25–26 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 14.0% | 13.2–14.8% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.4–15.7% |
| 11–14 November 2022 | I&O Research | 11.6% | 10.7–12.6% | 10.5–12.8% | 10.3–13.1% | 9.9–13.5% |
| 11–12 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 14.0% | 13.2–14.8% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.4–15.7% |
| 21–24 October 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| 22–23 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.4% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.8–15.0% |
| 14–17 October 2022 | I&O Research | 12.4% | 11.6–13.4% | 11.3–13.6% | 11.1–13.9% | 10.7–14.3% |
| 14–15 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 23–26 September 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 23–24 September 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% |
| 9–12 September 2022 | I&O Research | 10.7% | 9.8–11.7% | 9.5–11.9% | 9.3–12.2% | 8.9–12.7% |
| 26–29 August 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 26–27 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 11.4% | 10.7–12.2% | 10.5–12.4% | 10.3–12.6% | 10.0–13.0% |
| 5–6 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 22–25 July 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| 15–18 July 2022 | I&O Research | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| 8–9 July 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 24–27 June 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| 24–25 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 17–18 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 10–13 June 2022 | I&O Research | 9.5% | 8.7–10.5% | 8.5–10.7% | 8.3–10.9% | 7.9–11.4% |
| 10–11 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 27–30 May 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–28 May 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 May 2022 | Kantar | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–12.0% | 7.9–12.6% |
| 13–16 May 2022 | I&O Research | 9.7% | 8.8–10.7% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.4–11.2% | 8.0–11.8% |
| 13–14 May 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% |
| 22–25 April 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
9.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.5–11.0% | 7.0–11.6% |
| 22–23 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 8–11 April 2022 | I&O Research | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| 8–9 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.5–10.3% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.8% |
| 1–2 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 25–27 March 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
9.3% | 8.2–10.5% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.2–11.8% |
| 25–26 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.5–10.3% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.8% |
| 18–19 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.5–10.3% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.8% |
| 11–12 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9–11 March 2022 | Kantar | 8.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 4–5 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.5–10.3% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.8% |
| 25–28 February 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.8% | 9.7–12.2% | 9.3–12.6% | 9.1–12.9% | 8.5–13.6% |
| 26–27 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 9.3% | 8.7–10.1% | 8.5–10.3% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.8% |
| 18–19 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 11–14 February 2022 | I&O Research | 10.3% | 9.6–11.2% | 9.3–11.4% | 9.2–11.7% | 8.8–12.1% |
| 11–12 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 4–5 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–31 January 2022 | Kantar | 10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.4–12.2% | 7.9–12.8% |
| 28–29 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.7% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.5–13.5% |
| 21–22 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 14–17 January 2022 | I&O Research | 9.7% | 9.0–10.6% | 8.7–10.8% | 8.6–11.0% | 8.2–11.5% |
| 14–15 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | 11.9–13.4% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| 15–20 December 2021 | Kantar | 11.8% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| 17–20 December 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.7% | 9.2–14.3% |
| 17–18 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | 11.9–13.4% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| 12 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | 11.9–13.4% | 11.7–13.7% | 11.5–13.9% | 11.1–14.3% |
| 3–6 December 2021 | I&O Research | 10.0% | 9.2–10.9% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.4–11.9% |
| 3–5 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.4% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.8–15.0% |
| 26–29 November 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
12.5% | 11.2–13.9% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.0–15.4% |
| 26–27 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.4% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.8–15.0% |
| 19–20 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | 12.5–14.1% | 12.3–14.4% | 12.1–14.6% | 11.8–15.0% |
| 12–15 November 2021 | I&O Research | 10.7% | 9.9–11.7% | 9.7–11.9% | 9.4–12.2% | 9.1–12.6% |
| 5–9 November 2021 | Kantar | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| 7 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 29–30 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 22–25 October 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| 15–16 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–11 October 2021 | I&O Research | 9.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 8–9 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1–2 October 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–27 September 2021 | Ipsos | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 24–25 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–20 September 2021 | Kantar | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 17–18 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–13 September 2021 | I&O Research | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 10–11 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3–4 September 2021 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 27–30 August 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 20–21 August 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 23–26 July 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.5% | 9.3–11.8% | 9.0–12.2% | 8.7–12.5% | 8.2–13.2% |
| 23–24 July 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 9–12 July 2021 | I&O Research | 10.4% | 9.6–11.3% | 9.4–11.6% | 9.2–11.8% | 8.8–12.3% |
| 25–28 June 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
10.8% | 9.6–12.1% | 9.3–12.5% | 9.0–12.8% | 8.5–13.5% |
| 27 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 20 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 12 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 4–7 June 2021 | I&O Research | 9.2% | 8.3–10.1% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.9–10.6% | 7.5–11.0% |
| 4–5 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 28–29 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 21–23 May 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
11.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.8% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| 21–22 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 14–15 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 7–9 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 30 April–3 May 2021 | I&O Research | 9.9% | 9.1–10.9% | 8.9–11.1% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.3–11.8% |
| 30 April–1 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 23–24 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 12.0% | 11.2–12.8% | 11.0–13.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.5–13.6% |
| 16–19 April 2021 | Ipsos | 11.7% | 10.5–13.1% | 10.2–13.5% | 9.9–13.9% | 9.3–14.6% |
| 16–17 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 11.3% | 10.6–12.1% | 10.4–12.3% | 10.2–12.5% | 9.9–12.9% |
| 9–12 April 2021 | I&O Research | 9.5% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.6% | 8.3–10.9% | 7.9–11.3% |
| 9–10 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% |
| 3–4 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% |
| 26–27 March 2021 | Peil.nl | 10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Partij voor de Vrijheid.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 21% | 96% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 32% | 75% | Median |
| 18.5–19.5% | 33% | 44% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 11% | 11% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 17 seats (General Election of 17 March 2021)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 29 | 26–30 | 26–30 | 26–30 | 26–31 |
| 21 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30–31 | 29–31 |
| 19–21 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
29 | 27–29 | 27–29 | 27–29 | 25–30 |
| 20–21 November 2023 | I&O Research | 26 | 26–27 | 26–27 | 26–28 | 26–30 |
| 18–20 November 2023 | I&O Research | |||||
| 17–18 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 28 | 25–28 | 25–28 | 24–29 | 24–30 |
| 12–14 November 2023 | I&O Research | 18 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 |
| 10–13 November 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| 10–11 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 23 | 22–23 | 22–23 | 21–23 | 20–23 |
| 6–7 November 2023 | I&O Research | 16 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| 3–4 November 2023 | Peil.nl | 20 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 18–20 | 17–22 |
| 27–30 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| 27–28 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 21 | 17–21 | 17–21 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| 22–24 October 2023 | I&O Research | 18 | 18 | 18–19 | 18–21 | 16–21 |
| 20–21 October 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 13–16 October 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 13–14 October 2023 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 19–20 | 19–20 |
| 6–9 October 2023 | I&O Research | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 14–21 |
| 6–7 October 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 22–25 September 2023 | I&O Research | 18 | 17–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| 22–24 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
17 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 13–19 |
| 22–23 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 18 | 18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–19 |
| 8–11 September 2023 | I&O Research | 14 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| 8–9 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 1–4 September 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–20 |
| 1–2 September 2023 | Peil.nl | 16 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| 25–26 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| 23–24 August 2023 | I&O Research | 14 | 12–15 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 11–17 |
| 18–19 August 2023 | Peil.nl | 22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| 21 August–24 July 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
19 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 17–19 | 17–21 |
| 14–17 July 2023 | I&O Research | 15 | 15 | 14–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 |
| 14–15 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| 30 June–1 July 2023 | Peil.nl | 14 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 14–16 |
| 23–25 June 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
13 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| 16–17 June 2023 | Peil.nl | 12 | 12–13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| 9–12 June 2023 | I&O Research | 13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 |
| 26–29 May 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
14 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–18 | 11–18 |
| 19–20 May 2023 | Peil.nl | 9 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–13 |
| 12–15 May 2023 | I&O Research | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 5–6 May 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 24 April 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| 21–22 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8–9 |
| 14–17 April 2023 | I&O Research | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| 31 March–1 April 2023 | Peil.nl | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 24–27 March 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 |
| 23–24 March 2023 | Peil.nl | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| 17–27 February 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 |
| 24–25 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| 17–18 February 2023 | Peil.nl | 20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| 13 February 2023 | I&O Research | 16 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| 10–11 February 2023 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 27–30 January 2023 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
18 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 15–21 | 14–21 |
| 13–16 January 2023 | I&O Research | 18 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| 13–14 January 2023 | Peil.nl | 20 | 20 | 20 | 19–20 | 17–21 |
| 16–19 December 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17–19 |
| 16–17 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20–21 |
| 9–12 December 2022 | I&O Research | 18 | 18 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 18–19 |
| 2–3 December 2022 | Peil.nl | 21 | 21–22 | 21–22 | 21–22 | 18–22 |
| 25–28 November 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
18 | 16–20 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–21 |
| 25–26 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 22 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| 11–14 November 2022 | I&O Research | 16 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 16–19 |
| 11–12 November 2022 | Peil.nl | 22 | 22–24 | 22–24 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| 21–24 October 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
21 | 18–25 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 17–25 |
| 22–23 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19 | 19–21 | 19–21 | 19–21 |
| 14–17 October 2022 | I&O Research | 17 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 17–19 | 16–21 |
| 14–15 October 2022 | Peil.nl | 20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 |
| 23–26 September 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
19 | 17–20 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 15–22 |
| 23–24 September 2022 | Peil.nl | 18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| 9–12 September 2022 | I&O Research | 17 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 13–19 |
| 26–29 August 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
18 | 16–20 | 16–21 | 15–22 | 14–22 |
| 26–27 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
| 5–6 August 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15–17 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| 22–25 July 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
17 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 13–20 |
| 15–18 July 2022 | I&O Research | 17 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 8–9 July 2022 | Peil.nl | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15–16 | 14–16 |
| 24–27 June 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
16 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 13–19 | 11–20 |
| 24–25 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 14 | 14 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| 17–18 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17–20 |
| 10–13 June 2022 | I&O Research | 15 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| 10–11 June 2022 | Peil.nl | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 27–30 May 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
|||||
| 27–28 May 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 25–27 May 2022 | Kantar | 15 | 14–15 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 11–19 |
| 13–16 May 2022 | I&O Research | 12 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 11–17 | 11–18 |
| 13–14 May 2022 | Peil.nl | 18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| 22–25 April 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
14 | 14–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| 22–23 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 17 | 17 | 15–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| 8–11 April 2022 | I&O Research | 12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–16 |
| 8–9 April 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 12–17 |
| 1–2 April 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 25–27 March 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–18 |
| 25–26 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–17 |
| 18–19 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–17 |
| 11–12 March 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 9–11 March 2022 | Kantar | |||||
| 4–5 March 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 11–16 |
| 25–28 February 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
15 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 13–21 | 12–21 |
| 26–27 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 13 | 13 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 13–14 |
| 18–19 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 |
| 11–14 February 2022 | I&O Research | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–17 |
| 11–12 February 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| 4–5 February 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 27–31 January 2022 | Kantar | 16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| 28–29 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| 21–24 January 2022 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
16 | 15–18 | 14–21 | 13–21 | 13–21 |
| 21–22 January 2022 | Peil.nl | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 16–18 |
| 14–17 January 2022 | I&O Research | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13–15 |
| 14–15 January 2022 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 24–25 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19 | 19–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| 15–20 December 2021 | Kantar | 19 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 15–23 |
| 17–20 December 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 |
| 17–18 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19 | 19–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| 12 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 21 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 19–21 | 18–21 |
| 3–6 December 2021 | I&O Research | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| 3–5 December 2021 | Peil.nl | 20 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
| 26–29 November 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 17–22 | 16–23 |
| 26–27 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 20 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
| 19–20 November 2021 | Peil.nl | 20 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 |
| 12–15 November 2021 | I&O Research | 17 | 15–17 | 14–19 | 14–20 | 14–20 |
| 5–9 November 2021 | Kantar | 16 | 15–16 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 12–20 |
| 7 November 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 29–30 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 22–25 October 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
19 | 19–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| 15–16 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 8–11 October 2021 | I&O Research | |||||
| 8–9 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 1–2 October 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 24–27 September 2021 | Ipsos | |||||
| 24–25 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 17–20 September 2021 | Kantar | |||||
| 17–18 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 10–13 September 2021 | I&O Research | |||||
| 10–11 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 3–4 September 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 27–30 August 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
|||||
| 20–21 August 2021 | Peil.nl | |||||
| 23–26 July 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
14 | 14–16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| 23–24 July 2021 | Peil.nl | 18 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 17–18 | 17–19 |
| 9–12 July 2021 | I&O Research | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–19 |
| 25–28 June 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
15 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–18 | 12–19 |
| 27 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 17 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| 20 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 17 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| 12 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19 | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 |
| 4–7 June 2021 | I&O Research | 14 | 14 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| 4–5 June 2021 | Peil.nl | 18 | 15–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 15–19 |
| 28–29 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 20 | 18–20 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–23 |
| 21–23 May 2021 | Ipsos EenVandaag |
17 | 15–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 12–21 |
| 21–22 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 20 | 18–20 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–23 |
| 14–15 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 20 | 18–20 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 16–23 |
| 7–9 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–21 |
| 30 April–3 May 2021 | I&O Research | 16 | 16 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 13–17 |
| 30 April–1 May 2021 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 17–20 |
| 23–24 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 19 | 19 | 18–19 | 18–19 | 17–20 |
| 16–19 April 2021 | Ipsos | 18 | 16–19 | 14–19 | 14–21 | 13–22 |
| 16–17 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–20 |
| 9–12 April 2021 | I&O Research | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| 9–10 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 16 | 16–17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 15–18 |
| 3–4 April 2021 | Peil.nl | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 26–27 March 2021 | Peil.nl | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15–18 |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Partij voor de Vrijheid.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 18% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 19% | 82% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 63% | |
| 29 | 29% | 62% | Median |
| 30 | 32% | 34% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |