Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 3–4 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 18.6% | 17.7–19.6% | 17.5–19.8% | 17.3–20.1% | 16.9–20.5% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 16.6% | 15.8–17.5% | 15.5–17.8% | 15.3–18.0% | 14.9–18.5% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.9–11.4% | 9.7–11.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.3–10.7% | 9.1–10.9% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.5% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5–6.6% | 5.3–6.8% | 5.2–6.9% | 5.0–7.2% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8–5.9% | 4.7–6.1% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.4–6.5% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.2–5.2% | 4.1–5.3% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9–3.8% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.7–4.0% | 2.6–4.3% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3–3.1% | 2.2–3.2% | 2.1–3.3% | 2.0–3.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 30 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 99.6% | 99.7% | Median |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 99.6% | 99.7% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 16 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 8 | 0% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 99.7% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 87 | 85 | 100% | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 86 | 83 | 100% | 83 | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 76 | 99.6% | 76 | 76 | 76 | 76 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 73 | 0% | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 70 | 72 | 0% | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 71 | 0% | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 71 | 0% | 71 | 71 | 71 | 71 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 67 | 64 | 0% | 64 | 64 | 64 | 64 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 61 | 63 | 0% | 63 | 63 | 63 | 63 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 62 | 0% | 62 | 62 | 62 | 62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 57 | 0% | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 56 | 0% | 56 | 56 | 56 | 56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 55 | 0% | 55 | 55 | 55 | 55 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 54 | 0% | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 58 | 54 | 0% | 54 | 54 | 54 | 54 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 48 | 51 | 0% | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 45 | 0% | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 42 | 0% | 42 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 38 | 0% | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 29 | 30 | 0% | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 24 | 25 | 0% | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 85 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 83 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 76 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 99.9% | 99.9% | Median |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 58 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 57 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 56 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 55 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 49 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 40 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 99.6% | 99.9% | Median |
| 39 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 30 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 25 | 99.6% | 99.6% | Median |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 3–4 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.01%