Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 23–24 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 21.3% 20.3–22.3% 20.1–22.5% 19.8–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Democraten 66 15.0% 14.6% 13.8–15.5% 13.6–15.7% 13.4–16.0% 13.0–16.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 8.0% 7.4–8.6% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.0% 6.8–9.3%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
GroenLinks 5.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Volt Europa 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 34 34 32–34 32–34 32–34
Democraten 66 24 23 23 22–23 22–23 20–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 19 19 18–19 18–19 17–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 12 12 12 12 12–15
Socialistische Partij 9 8 8 8 8 8–10
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10 10 10 9–10
Forum voor Democratie 8 10 10 10 10 8–10
GroenLinks 8 7 7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Partij voor de Dieren 6 7 7 7 7 6–7
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–6
ChristenUnie 5 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–6
Volt Europa 3 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2 2–4 2–4 2–4
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 1 1 1 1 1–2
Bij1 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 7% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 92%  
34 92% 92% Last Result, Median
35 0.1% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.2%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.6% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.4%  
22 8% 99.3%  
23 91% 91% Median
24 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.9% Last Result
18 7% 98%  
19 91% 91% Median
20 0.1% 0.5%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 98% 99.8% Median
13 0.3% 2%  
14 0.1% 1.4%  
15 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 98% 100% Median
9 0.6% 2% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.7% Last Result
10 98% 98% Median
11 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100% Last Result
9 0.7% 98%  
10 97% 98% Median
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.3% 100%  
6 7% 98.7%  
7 91% 91% Median
8 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8% Last Result
7 98% 98% Median
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 92% 100% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 91% 100% Median
5 8% 9% Last Result
6 0.3% 0.7%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.4% 100%  
5 91% 99.6% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 91% 100% Median
3 8% 9% Last Result
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 91% 100% Median
3 2% 9% Last Result
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 98% 100% Last Result, Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 91% 91% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 87 83 100% 83 81–83 81–83 80–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 86 80 100% 80 77–80 77–80 77–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 93% 77 75–77 75–77 75–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 0.2% 75 72–75 72–75 72–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 73 1.4% 73 71–73 71–73 71–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 69 0% 69 66–69 66–69 66–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 67 0% 67 64–67 64–67 63–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 65 0% 65 62–65 62–65 62–66
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 70 64 0% 64 63–64 63–64 63–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 58 0% 58 57–58 57–58 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 58 0% 58 57–58 57–58 55–60
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 61 56 0% 56 55–56 55–56 55–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 56 0% 56 54–56 54–56 53–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 56 0% 56 54–56 54–56 53–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 58 56 0% 56 54–56 54–56 53–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 46 0% 46 44–46 44–46 44–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 48 45 0% 45 44–45 44–45 42–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 44 0% 44 42–44 42–44 41–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 35 0% 35 34–35 34–35 32–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 29 26 0% 26 26–27 26–27 26–29
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 24 22 0% 22 22 22 21–24

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 7% 99.4%  
82 0.1% 92%  
83 91% 92% Median
84 0.2% 2%  
85 1.3% 1.4%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 7% 100%  
78 0.5% 93%  
79 0.3% 93%  
80 91% 92% Median
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 7% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 93% Majority
77 92% 92% Last Result, Median
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 7% 99.6%  
73 0.1% 93%  
74 2% 92% Last Result
75 91% 91% Median
76 0.1% 0.2% Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 7% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 93%  
73 91% 92% Median
74 0.2% 2%  
75 0.1% 1.5%  
76 1.4% 1.4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.5% 100%  
65 0% 99.5%  
66 7% 99.5%  
67 0.2% 93%  
68 0.2% 92%  
69 91% 92% Median
70 0.1% 1.5%  
71 1.3% 1.4%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.4% 100%  
62 0% 99.5%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 7% 99.2%  
65 1.3% 92%  
66 0% 91%  
67 91% 91% Last Result, Median
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 7% 100%  
63 0.1% 93%  
64 0.2% 93%  
65 91% 93% Median
66 1.3% 1.5% Last Result
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 7% 99.7%  
64 91% 93% Median
65 0.2% 2%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.4%  
57 7% 99.4%  
58 91% 92% Median
59 0.2% 1.5%  
60 1.3% 1.3%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.4%  
57 7% 99.4%  
58 91% 92% Median
59 0.2% 1.5%  
60 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 7% 99.6%  
56 92% 92% Median
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 7% 99.3%  
55 0.2% 92%  
56 91% 92% Median
57 1.4% 1.5%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 7% 99.3%  
55 0.2% 92%  
56 91% 92% Median
57 1.4% 1.5% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.8%  
54 7% 99.3%  
55 0.2% 92%  
56 91% 92% Median
57 0.1% 2%  
58 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 7% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 93%  
46 91% 92% Median
47 0% 2%  
48 0.1% 2%  
49 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.4% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.6%  
43 0.3% 99.3%  
44 7% 99.1%  
45 91% 92% Median
46 1.3% 1.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 7% 99.3%  
43 1.4% 92% Last Result
44 91% 91% Median
45 0% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.3%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.6% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.4%  
34 7% 99.3%  
35 91% 92% Median
36 0.1% 1.5%  
37 1.4% 1.4%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 91% 99.7% Median
27 7% 9%  
28 0.4% 2%  
29 1.4% 1.4% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.7%  
22 98% 99.2% Median
23 0.2% 1.4%  
24 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations