Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 30 April–3 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 21.6% 20.4–22.8% 20.1–23.2% 19.8–23.5% 19.2–24.1%
Democraten 66 15.0% 14.4% 13.4–15.5% 13.1–15.8% 12.9–16.0% 12.4–16.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 9.9% 9.1–10.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.7–11.4% 8.3–11.8%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 6.4% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.4% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0%
GroenLinks 5.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 4.4% 3.8–5.1% 3.7–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.3–5.7%
Volt Europa 2.4% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.8% 3.3–4.5% 3.2–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
DENK 2.0% 2.2% 1.8–2.7% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–3.0% 1.5–3.2%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
50Plus 1.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 36 33–36 33–36 33–36 32–38
Democraten 66 24 22 22 21–23 21–25 20–25
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 16 16 15–16 15–17 13–17
Socialistische Partij 9 9 9–10 9–11 9–11 9–12
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 10 10 9–10 9–12 8–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 9 8–12 8–12 8–12
GroenLinks 8 7 7–8 7–8 6–8 6–8
Forum voor Democratie 8 8 8 7–8 6–9 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 6 8 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Volt Europa 3 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 6 6 6 5–6 4–7
ChristenUnie 5 4 4 4–5 4–6 4–7
DENK 3 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Bij1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
50Plus 1 0 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.4% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.5%  
33 14% 99.3%  
34 1.0% 85% Last Result
35 2% 84%  
36 81% 83% Median
37 0% 2%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 3% 98%  
22 88% 94% Median
23 2% 6%  
24 0.2% 3% Last Result
25 3% 3%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.8%  
14 0.2% 98.8%  
15 5% 98.6%  
16 90% 94% Median
17 3% 4% Last Result
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 82% 99.6% Last Result, Median
10 10% 18%  
11 7% 8%  
12 1.0% 1.0%  
13 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 2% 99.7%  
9 5% 98%  
10 90% 93% Median
11 0.7% 4%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 7% 100%  
9 86% 93% Last Result, Median
10 1.2% 6%  
11 0.2% 5%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 5% 100%  
7 83% 95% Median
8 12% 12% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 5% 95%  
8 88% 90% Last Result, Median
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100%  
6 9% 95% Last Result
7 2% 86%  
8 84% 84% Median
9 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 3% 100%  
5 82% 97% Median
6 13% 15%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 2% 100%  
5 3% 98%  
6 94% 95% Median
7 0.9% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 91% 100% Median
5 4% 9% Last Result
6 4% 4%  
7 0.5% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 87% 94% Last Result, Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 14% 99.9%  
3 83% 86% Last Result, Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 89% 93% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 87% 100% Last Result, Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 82% 100% Median
1 11% 18% Last Result
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 87 81 99.9% 81 77–82 77–84 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 86 79 99.2% 78–79 77–79 77–80 75–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 73 0% 69–73 68–73 66–73 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 72 0% 70–72 69–72 69–72 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 70 0% 67–70 66–70 64–70 64–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 67 0% 63–67 63–68 63–70 62–70
Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 70 61 0% 61–63 61–64 61–69 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 68 0% 65–68 65–68 65–68 63–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 62 0% 59–62 58–62 57–62 55–62
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 61 52 0% 52–53 52–54 52–59 50–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 57 0% 55–57 54–57 52–57 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 57 0% 53–57 53–57 51–57 51–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 58 55 0% 54–55 51–55 51–55 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 54 0% 52–54 52–54 50–54 49–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 54 0% 51–54 51–54 49–54 49–55
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 45 0% 42–45 41–45 41–47 41–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 46 0% 43–46 43–46 42–46 40–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 48 41 0% 41 40–42 40–46 37–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 32 0% 32 31–33 31–34 29–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 29 23 0% 23 22–26 22–27 21–27
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 24 19 0% 19 18–21 18–21 17–22

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Majority
77 7% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 93%  
79 1.3% 92%  
80 0.2% 91%  
81 85% 91% Median
82 2% 5%  
83 0.2% 4%  
84 3% 3%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.6%  
76 2% 99.2% Majority
77 7% 98%  
78 4% 90%  
79 83% 86% Median
80 3% 4%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 4% 99.9%  
67 0.8% 96%  
68 0.5% 96%  
69 7% 95%  
70 5% 88%  
71 0.9% 83%  
72 0.1% 83%  
73 81% 82% Median
74 2% 2%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.2%  
69 9% 99.1%  
70 0.9% 90%  
71 0.2% 89%  
72 87% 89% Median
73 2% 2%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 5% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 95%  
66 2% 95%  
67 8% 93%  
68 3% 86%  
69 0.1% 83%  
70 81% 82% Median
71 2% 2%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.6% 99.7%  
63 10% 99.1%  
64 0.8% 90%  
65 0.9% 89%  
66 0.1% 88%  
67 82% 88% Last Result, Median
68 0.4% 5%  
69 0% 5%  
70 5% 5%  
71 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 2% 99.9%  
61 81% 98% Median
62 0.3% 17%  
63 9% 17%  
64 3% 7%  
65 0.2% 4%  
66 0.7% 4%  
67 0.4% 4%  
68 0% 3%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.5%  
64 1.3% 98.8%  
65 8% 98%  
66 3% 89%  
67 3% 86%  
68 81% 83% Median
69 2% 2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.8% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.1%  
57 4% 99.1%  
58 0.4% 95%  
59 7% 95%  
60 2% 88%  
61 0.3% 86%  
62 85% 85% Median
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 2% 99.7%  
51 0.1% 98%  
52 88% 98% Median
53 2% 10%  
54 4% 8%  
55 0.1% 4%  
56 0.2% 4%  
57 0.1% 4%  
58 0% 3%  
59 3% 3%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100%  
52 3% 99.6%  
53 0.5% 96%  
54 4% 96%  
55 7% 92%  
56 2% 85%  
57 81% 83% Median
58 0% 2%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 3% 99.6%  
52 0.2% 96%  
53 10% 96%  
54 0.9% 86%  
55 2% 85%  
56 0.1% 83%  
57 81% 83% Median
58 2% 2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 7% 99.2%  
52 1.0% 92%  
53 0.8% 91%  
54 6% 91%  
55 83% 84% Median
56 0.3% 2%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.7% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.2%  
51 0.8% 96%  
52 6% 95%  
53 7% 89%  
54 81% 83% Median
55 0% 2%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 4% 99.5%  
50 0.2% 96%  
51 13% 96%  
52 0.3% 83%  
53 0% 83%  
54 81% 83% Median
55 2% 2%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 7% 99.9%  
42 4% 93%  
43 1.1% 89% Last Result
44 0.1% 88%  
45 84% 88% Median
46 0.4% 4%  
47 3% 3%  
48 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.5%  
42 4% 99.2%  
43 7% 95%  
44 1.1% 88%  
45 5% 87%  
46 82% 83% Median
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.5% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.4%  
39 0% 99.3%  
40 9% 99.2%  
41 82% 90% Median
42 5% 9%  
43 0% 4%  
44 0.3% 4%  
45 0.1% 3%  
46 3% 3%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.7%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 3% 98%  
32 88% 94% Median
33 3% 7%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 2% 100%  
22 7% 98%  
23 81% 91% Median
24 1.0% 10%  
25 0.4% 9%  
26 5% 9%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0% 0.3%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 7% 98%  
19 82% 91% Median
20 0.8% 9%  
21 6% 8%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations