Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 21–23 May 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 22.9% | 21.2–24.6% | 20.8–25.1% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.4% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.5% | 14.1–18.0% | 13.8–18.3% | 13.2–19.1% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.8% | 9.3–13.2% | 8.7–13.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5–5.2% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.2–4.3% | 1.9–4.8% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.8% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 35 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 31–39 | 30–39 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 23 | 19–27 | 19–29 | 19–31 | 19–31 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 17 | 15–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 12–21 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 14 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 10–16 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–14 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 8 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–10 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–10 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 4 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–8 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 4 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 3 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| DENK | 3 | 2 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–4 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 14% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 85% | |
| 33 | 2% | 82% | |
| 34 | 20% | 80% | Last Result |
| 35 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 36 | 6% | 40% | |
| 37 | 3% | 34% | |
| 38 | 2% | 31% | |
| 39 | 29% | 30% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 28% | 100% | |
| 20 | 11% | 72% | |
| 21 | 5% | 62% | |
| 22 | 4% | 56% | |
| 23 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 49% | Last Result |
| 25 | 12% | 26% | |
| 26 | 4% | 14% | |
| 27 | 3% | 10% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 31 | 4% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 3% | 94% | |
| 15 | 9% | 91% | |
| 16 | 4% | 82% | |
| 17 | 45% | 78% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 15% | 33% | |
| 19 | 2% | 18% | |
| 20 | 12% | 16% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 15% | 96% | |
| 12 | 14% | 80% | |
| 13 | 6% | 66% | |
| 14 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 15 | 8% | 48% | Last Result |
| 16 | 40% | 41% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 20% | 96% | Last Result |
| 10 | 52% | 76% | Median |
| 11 | 6% | 24% | |
| 12 | 16% | 18% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 7 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 20% | 92% | |
| 9 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 22% | |
| 11 | 9% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 20% | 96% | |
| 8 | 52% | 77% | Median |
| 9 | 7% | 24% | Last Result |
| 10 | 7% | 17% | |
| 11 | 10% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 97% | |
| 6 | 41% | 92% | |
| 7 | 36% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 14% | 15% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 16% | 98.9% | |
| 5 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 20% | 49% | |
| 7 | 25% | 29% | |
| 8 | 2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 4 | 46% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 15% | 26% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 8 | 10% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 97% | |
| 4 | 54% | 93% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 39% | Last Result |
| 6 | 18% | 18% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 38% | 94% | Last Result |
| 4 | 49% | 56% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 6% | |
| 6 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 90% | |
| 3 | 39% | 77% | Median |
| 4 | 19% | 38% | |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 63% | 90% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 26% | Last Result |
| 4 | 10% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30% | 100% | |
| 1 | 33% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 35% | 37% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 57% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 35% | 35% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 14% | 18% | Last Result |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 87 | 88 | 100% | 80–89 | 79–90 | 79–91 | 79–92 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 86 | 85 | 90% | 77–86 | 75–87 | 75–87 | 75–88 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 77 | 80% | 70–79 | 69–81 | 69–82 | 69–82 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 77 | 73 | 33% | 65–79 | 65–79 | 65–79 | 65–79 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 73 | 8% | 65–75 | 65–76 | 65–77 | 65–77 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 67 | 68 | 0.1% | 64–72 | 64–74 | 64–75 | 63–75 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 69 | 0.1% | 62–75 | 62–75 | 62–75 | 62–75 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 67 | 0% | 61–72 | 59–72 | 58–72 | 58–72 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 70 | 66 | 0% | 62–69 | 62–70 | 62–71 | 61–71 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 58 | 58 | 0% | 54–65 | 54–65 | 54–65 | 53–65 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 61 | 58 | 0% | 53–62 | 51–62 | 51–63 | 51–65 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 61 | 55 | 0% | 50–62 | 50–62 | 50–62 | 49–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie | 60 | 55 | 0% | 50–62 | 50–62 | 49–62 | 49–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 52 | 0% | 47–58 | 47–58 | 47–58 | 45–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 52 | 0% | 47–58 | 47–58 | 46–58 | 44–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 49 | 0% | 45–55 | 45–55 | 42–55 | 42–55 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 48 | 47 | 0% | 41–50 | 41–51 | 41–52 | 41–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 45 | 0% | 41–49 | 41–49 | 41–49 | 40–50 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 37 | 0% | 32–40 | 31–41 | 31–41 | 31–45 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 29 | 29 | 0% | 25–32 | 24–32 | 24–32 | 24–32 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 24 | 24 | 0% | 21–26 | 19–26 | 19–27 | 19–27 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79 | 10% | 100% | |
| 80 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 84 | 3% | 87% | |
| 85 | 2% | 84% | |
| 86 | 12% | 82% | Median |
| 87 | 17% | 70% | Last Result |
| 88 | 42% | 54% | |
| 89 | 3% | 12% | |
| 90 | 4% | 8% | |
| 91 | 2% | 4% | |
| 92 | 2% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 10% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 90% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 78 | 2% | 89% | |
| 79 | 3% | 87% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 84% | |
| 81 | 3% | 83% | |
| 82 | 9% | 80% | |
| 83 | 20% | 71% | Median |
| 84 | 0.8% | 51% | |
| 85 | 39% | 51% | |
| 86 | 4% | 12% | Last Result |
| 87 | 6% | 8% | |
| 88 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 10% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 72 | 2% | 89% | |
| 73 | 2% | 86% | |
| 74 | 3% | 84% | |
| 75 | 0.8% | 81% | |
| 76 | 12% | 80% | Median, Majority |
| 77 | 26% | 68% | |
| 78 | 31% | 43% | Last Result |
| 79 | 4% | 11% | |
| 80 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 81 | 5% | 8% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 88% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 86% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 69 | 2% | 85% | |
| 70 | 16% | 83% | |
| 71 | 3% | 67% | |
| 72 | 4% | 64% | |
| 73 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 74 | 1.5% | 45% | |
| 75 | 11% | 44% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 33% | Majority |
| 77 | 4% | 32% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 79 | 28% | 28% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 67 | 2% | 89% | |
| 68 | 1.5% | 87% | |
| 69 | 3% | 85% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 71 | 22% | 82% | |
| 72 | 2% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 18% | 58% | Last Result |
| 74 | 28% | 39% | |
| 75 | 3% | 11% | |
| 76 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 11% | 98% | |
| 65 | 13% | 88% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 75% | |
| 67 | 3% | 74% | Last Result |
| 68 | 40% | 71% | Median |
| 69 | 2% | 31% | |
| 70 | 4% | 30% | |
| 71 | 14% | 26% | |
| 72 | 5% | 12% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 74 | 2% | 6% | |
| 75 | 4% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 2% | 88% | |
| 64 | 3% | 86% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 66 | 12% | 82% | |
| 67 | 2% | 70% | |
| 68 | 6% | 68% | |
| 69 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 70 | 4% | 50% | |
| 71 | 2% | 45% | |
| 72 | 11% | 44% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 74 | 4% | 31% | Last Result |
| 75 | 28% | 28% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 4% | 100% | |
| 59 | 2% | 96% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 11% | 94% | |
| 62 | 12% | 83% | |
| 63 | 3% | 72% | |
| 64 | 2% | 68% | |
| 65 | 4% | 66% | |
| 66 | 2% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 25% | 60% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 35% | |
| 69 | 5% | 33% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 72 | 28% | 28% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 10% | 98% | |
| 63 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 64 | 29% | 87% | |
| 65 | 6% | 58% | |
| 66 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 67 | 13% | 46% | |
| 68 | 11% | 33% | |
| 69 | 14% | 22% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | Last Result |
| 71 | 5% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 54 | 8% | 98% | |
| 55 | 11% | 90% | |
| 56 | 2% | 79% | |
| 57 | 14% | 77% | |
| 58 | 19% | 63% | Last Result |
| 59 | 2% | 43% | Median |
| 60 | 3% | 42% | |
| 61 | 5% | 39% | |
| 62 | 4% | 34% | |
| 63 | 1.2% | 29% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 28% | |
| 65 | 28% | 28% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0% | 90% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 55 | 2% | 89% | |
| 56 | 32% | 87% | |
| 57 | 2% | 54% | |
| 58 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 59 | 16% | 48% | |
| 60 | 13% | 33% | |
| 61 | 4% | 20% | Last Result |
| 62 | 11% | 16% | |
| 63 | 3% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 9% | 98% | |
| 51 | 4% | 89% | |
| 52 | 4% | 85% | |
| 53 | 10% | 81% | |
| 54 | 2% | 71% | |
| 55 | 24% | 68% | |
| 56 | 6% | 45% | Median |
| 57 | 2% | 38% | |
| 58 | 2% | 36% | |
| 59 | 3% | 35% | |
| 60 | 3% | 32% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 28% | Last Result |
| 62 | 28% | 28% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 10% | 96% | |
| 51 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 52 | 4% | 85% | |
| 53 | 14% | 81% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 67% | |
| 55 | 23% | 66% | |
| 56 | 6% | 42% | Median |
| 57 | 2% | 37% | |
| 58 | 2% | 35% | |
| 59 | 4% | 33% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 29% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 62 | 28% | 28% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 48 | 3% | 88% | |
| 49 | 14% | 85% | |
| 50 | 2% | 71% | |
| 51 | 14% | 69% | |
| 52 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 53 | 5% | 43% | |
| 54 | 2% | 38% | |
| 55 | 2% | 36% | |
| 56 | 3% | 34% | |
| 57 | 2% | 31% | |
| 58 | 28% | 28% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 11% | 97% | |
| 48 | 2% | 86% | |
| 49 | 15% | 85% | |
| 50 | 4% | 69% | |
| 51 | 13% | 66% | |
| 52 | 11% | 53% | Median |
| 53 | 5% | 41% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 36% | |
| 55 | 2% | 35% | |
| 56 | 4% | 32% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 28% | Last Result |
| 58 | 28% | 28% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 45 | 16% | 96% | |
| 46 | 12% | 80% | |
| 47 | 13% | 68% | |
| 48 | 4% | 55% | |
| 49 | 12% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 50 | 5% | 39% | |
| 51 | 5% | 34% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 29% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 28% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 55 | 28% | 28% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 44 | 1.5% | 89% | |
| 45 | 30% | 88% | |
| 46 | 7% | 58% | |
| 47 | 13% | 51% | Median |
| 48 | 4% | 38% | Last Result |
| 49 | 12% | 34% | |
| 50 | 15% | 22% | |
| 51 | 3% | 6% | |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 13% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 3% | 86% | |
| 43 | 3% | 83% | Last Result |
| 44 | 26% | 80% | |
| 45 | 6% | 54% | Median |
| 46 | 9% | 48% | |
| 47 | 3% | 39% | |
| 48 | 5% | 36% | |
| 49 | 29% | 31% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 33 | 3% | 90% | |
| 34 | 2% | 87% | |
| 35 | 30% | 85% | |
| 36 | 3% | 55% | |
| 37 | 12% | 52% | Median |
| 38 | 16% | 40% | |
| 39 | 3% | 24% | Last Result |
| 40 | 16% | 21% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 43 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 15% | 95% | |
| 26 | 2% | 80% | |
| 27 | 12% | 78% | |
| 28 | 5% | 66% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 61% | Last Result |
| 30 | 32% | 47% | |
| 31 | 4% | 16% | |
| 32 | 12% | 12% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 7% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 21 | 11% | 92% | |
| 22 | 5% | 81% | |
| 23 | 13% | 77% | |
| 24 | 14% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 25 | 3% | 49% | |
| 26 | 42% | 47% | |
| 27 | 4% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 21–23 May 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1010
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 4.59%