Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 4–5 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.0–24.6% 21.8–24.8% 21.3–25.3%
Democraten 66 15.0% 14.6% 13.8–15.5% 13.6–15.7% 13.4–16.0% 13.0–16.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
GroenLinks 5.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Volt Europa 2.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 33 33–39 33–39 33–39 33–39
Democraten 66 24 24 22–24 21–24 21–24 21–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 18 15–18 15–18 15–19 15–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 12 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 9–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Socialistische Partij 9 11 9–11 9–11 8–11 7–11
GroenLinks 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–9 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 6 6 6–7 6–9 6–10 6–10
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 6 6–8 6–8 5–8 5–8
Volt Europa 3 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
ChristenUnie 5 3 3–5 3–6 3–7 3–7
Forum voor Democratie 8 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 3 3 3 2–3 2–4
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Bij1 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 51% 100% Median
34 0.2% 49% Last Result
35 2% 49%  
36 10% 47%  
37 17% 37%  
38 2% 19%  
39 17% 17%  
40 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 8% 99.8%  
22 26% 91%  
23 0.3% 66%  
24 65% 65% Last Result, Median
25 0.2% 0.4%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 18% 100%  
16 0.6% 82%  
17 24% 82% Last Result
18 54% 58% Median
19 3% 3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 17% 100%  
10 1.5% 83%  
11 30% 81%  
12 51% 51% Median
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.3% 100%  
9 22% 99.7% Last Result
10 8% 78%  
11 65% 70% Median
12 6% 6%  
13 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.5% 100%  
8 2% 99.5%  
9 42% 97% Last Result
10 3% 55%  
11 52% 52% Median
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 6% 99.9%  
7 19% 94%  
8 73% 76% Last Result, Median
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 85% 99.7% Last Result, Median
7 6% 15%  
8 0.7% 9%  
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.2% 100%  
5 2% 99.8%  
6 83% 97% Median
7 2% 14%  
8 13% 13%  
9 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0.1% 100%  
5 78% 99.9% Median
6 7% 22%  
7 14% 14%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 50% 100% Median
4 21% 50%  
5 24% 29% Last Result
6 2% 5%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 73% 99.9% Median
4 26% 27%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 26% 100%  
3 73% 74% Last Result, Median
4 1.5% 1.5%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 94% 96% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 26% 100%  
3 72% 74% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 71% 100% Last Result, Median
2 28% 29%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 87 83 100% 83–86 83–86 82–86 81–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 86 80 100% 80–84 80–84 80–84 79–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 72 18% 72–76 72–76 72–76 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 69 0.1% 67–73 67–73 66–73 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 69 0% 68–72 68–72 68–72 67–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 68 0% 68–72 67–72 66–72 65–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 66 0% 65–70 65–70 64–70 64–71
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 70 69 0% 63–69 63–69 63–69 61–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 63 0% 61–67 61–67 61–67 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 58 56 0% 56–59 56–59 55–59 55–59
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 61 58 0% 54–58 54–58 54–58 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 51 0% 51–56 51–56 51–56 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 51 0% 51–56 51–56 51–56 51–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 48 0% 48–53 48–53 48–53 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 48 0% 48–53 48–53 48–53 48–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 45 0% 45–50 45–50 45–50 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 44 0% 44–48 44–48 44–49 44–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 48 47 0% 42–47 42–47 41–47 40–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 36 0% 32–36 32–36 31–36 31–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 29 26 0% 24–26 24–27 24–28 24–28
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 24 23 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 19–23

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100%  
81 1.4% 99.6%  
82 2% 98%  
83 50% 96% Median
84 7% 46%  
85 25% 39%  
86 13% 14%  
87 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.4% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.6%  
78 0.1% 99.6%  
79 0.4% 99.6%  
80 58% 99.1% Median
81 7% 42%  
82 13% 35%  
83 4% 22%  
84 17% 18%  
85 0.8% 0.8%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 0% 99.6%  
72 53% 99.6% Median
73 7% 47%  
74 3% 39%  
75 18% 36%  
76 17% 18% Majority
77 0.5% 1.2%  
78 0.7% 0.7% Last Result
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 4% 100%  
67 13% 96%  
68 0.1% 83%  
69 51% 83% Median
70 8% 32%  
71 4% 25%  
72 2% 20%  
73 17% 19%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 2% 99.6%  
68 11% 98%  
69 53% 86% Median
70 13% 33%  
71 2% 20%  
72 18% 18%  
73 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 1.4% 100%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 4% 97% Last Result
68 54% 93% Median
69 3% 38%  
70 17% 35%  
71 5% 18%  
72 13% 13%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 4% 100%  
65 13% 96%  
66 50% 83% Median
67 4% 33%  
68 5% 29%  
69 5% 24%  
70 18% 19%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
75 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 98%  
63 19% 98%  
64 8% 79%  
65 15% 71%  
66 5% 56%  
67 0% 51%  
68 1.0% 51%  
69 50% 50% Median
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 17% 100%  
62 0.4% 83%  
63 52% 83% Median
64 6% 30%  
65 5% 24%  
66 2% 19% Last Result
67 17% 17%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 3% 99.9%  
56 52% 97% Median
57 20% 45%  
58 6% 24% Last Result
59 18% 19%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.4% 100%  
51 0% 99.6%  
52 2% 99.6%  
53 0.1% 98%  
54 21% 98%  
55 6% 77%  
56 14% 71%  
57 5% 56%  
58 50% 51% Median
59 1.0% 1.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 56% 99.8% Median
52 13% 44%  
53 12% 31%  
54 0.2% 20%  
55 0.8% 20%  
56 17% 19%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 56% 99.8% Median
52 13% 44%  
53 12% 31%  
54 0.2% 20%  
55 0.8% 20%  
56 17% 19%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 51% 99.9% Median
49 5% 49%  
50 16% 44%  
51 8% 28%  
52 0.9% 20%  
53 18% 19%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 51% 99.9% Median
49 5% 49%  
50 16% 44%  
51 8% 28%  
52 0.9% 20%  
53 18% 19%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 1.1% 100%  
45 51% 98.9% Median
46 19% 48%  
47 9% 29%  
48 1.1% 20%  
49 1.5% 19% Last Result
50 17% 17%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 53% 99.9% Median
45 2% 47%  
46 7% 45%  
47 2% 38%  
48 31% 35%  
49 4% 4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.7% 100%  
41 3% 99.3%  
42 22% 97%  
43 8% 75%  
44 14% 66%  
45 0.7% 52%  
46 1.3% 51%  
47 50% 50% Median
48 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 4% 99.6%  
32 8% 95%  
33 34% 87%  
34 1.4% 53%  
35 1.3% 52%  
36 50% 50% Median
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 18% 99.6%  
25 17% 81%  
26 57% 64% Median
27 3% 7%  
28 4% 4%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 34% 98%  
21 11% 64%  
22 2% 54%  
23 52% 52% Median
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations