Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 20 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.0–24.6% 21.8–24.8% 21.3–25.3%
Democraten 66 15.0% 14.6% 13.8–15.5% 13.6–15.7% 13.4–16.0% 13.0–16.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.6% 6.1–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.8–7.6% 5.5–7.9%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
GroenLinks 5.2% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Volt Europa 2.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 1.3% 1.1–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.8% 0.9–2.0%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 36 34–36 34–36 34–36 34–37
Democraten 66 24 20 20–24 20–24 20–24 20–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 17 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
Socialistische Partij 9 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–10
Partij voor de Dieren 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
GroenLinks 8 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–9
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–6
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 7 6–7 5–7
Volt Europa 3 5 5 5 5 5–8
Forum voor Democratie 8 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 6 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 5 5 5 5 4–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 3 3 3 3 3–4
Bij1 1 2 2 2 2 1–2
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 29% 99.9% Last Result
35 0% 71%  
36 70% 71% Median
37 0.6% 0.8%  
38 0% 0.2%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 67% 100% Median
21 0.1% 33%  
22 0.7% 33%  
23 0.7% 32%  
24 31% 32% Last Result
25 0% 0.3%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 68% 99.5% Last Result, Median
18 0.7% 32%  
19 2% 31%  
20 29% 29%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 29% 100%  
9 2% 71% Last Result
10 1.3% 69%  
11 0.3% 68%  
12 67% 67% Median
13 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 68% 99.2% Last Result, Median
10 31% 31%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100% Last Result
7 30% 99.9%  
8 69% 69% Median
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 29% 99.6%  
8 70% 70% Last Result, Median
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100%  
5 70% 99.3% Median
6 29% 29%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100% Last Result
6 2% 99.3%  
7 97% 97% Median
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 98% 100% Median
6 0.7% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.9%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 67% 98% Median
5 0.8% 31%  
6 30% 30%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 31% 100%  
5 2% 69%  
6 67% 67% Median
7 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 98.5% 98.6% Median
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 31% 100%  
3 69% 69% Last Result, Median
4 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 98% 99.9% Last Result, Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 98% 98% Median
3 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 87 80 100% 79–80 79–80 79–80 79–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 86 76 99.9% 76–78 76–78 76–78 76–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 68 0% 68–71 68–71 68–71 68–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 68 0% 66–68 66–68 66–69 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 65 0% 65–68 65–68 65–68 63–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 62 0% 62–66 62–66 62–66 61–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 61 0% 61–64 61–64 61–64 61–65
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 70 61 0% 61–62 61–62 61–62 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 58 0% 58–60 58–60 58–60 57–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 58 53 0% 48–53 48–53 48–53 48–53
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 61 52 0% 52 52 52 51–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 48 0% 48 48 48 46–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 48 0% 48 48 48 46–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 48 0% 42–48 42–48 42–48 42–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 45 0% 45–46 45–46 45–46 44–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 45 0% 45–46 45–46 45–46 44–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 41 0% 40–41 40–41 40–41 40–41
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 48 37 0% 37–38 37–38 37–38 37–41
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 25 0% 25–30 25–30 25–30 25–30
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 29 24 0% 21–24 21–24 21–24 19–24
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 24 17 0% 14–17 14–17 14–17 14–17

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 31% 99.9%  
80 68% 69% Median
81 0.2% 1.0%  
82 0.1% 0.9%  
83 0% 0.8%  
84 0.5% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 67% 99.9% Median, Majority
77 0.6% 33%  
78 30% 32%  
79 1.5% 2%  
80 0.9% 0.9%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 67% 100% Median
69 1.4% 33%  
70 0% 32%  
71 31% 32%  
72 0.7% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 29% 99.9%  
67 0% 71% Last Result
68 68% 71% Median
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 1.4%  
71 0% 0.8%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.7% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.3%  
65 67% 99.1% Median
66 2% 32%  
67 0% 29%  
68 29% 29%  
69 0% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.6% 100%  
62 67% 99.3% Median
63 2% 32%  
64 0.6% 30%  
65 0% 29%  
66 29% 29%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 67% 100% Median
62 0% 33%  
63 0.7% 33%  
64 30% 32%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0% 0.3%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.8%  
60 0% 99.1%  
61 68% 99.1% Median
62 31% 32%  
63 0% 0.8%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.5% 0.6%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.5% 100%  
58 68% 99.4% Median
59 0.7% 32%  
60 31% 31%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 29% 100%  
49 0% 71%  
50 2% 71%  
51 1.3% 69%  
52 0.3% 68%  
53 68% 68% Median
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 1.3% 99.7%  
52 98% 98% Median
53 0% 0.8%  
54 0% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.8%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 97% 98% Median
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 97% 98% Median
49 0.5% 0.8%  
50 0% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 29% 100%  
43 0.1% 71% Last Result
44 0% 71%  
45 2% 71%  
46 0.7% 69%  
47 0.9% 68%  
48 68% 68% Median
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 2% 99.9%  
45 67% 98% Median
46 30% 31%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 2% 99.9%  
45 67% 98% Median
46 30% 31%  
47 0.6% 0.8%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 29% 99.9%  
41 70% 71% Median
42 0% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 68% 99.8% Median
38 31% 32%  
39 0% 0.9%  
40 0% 0.8%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 67% 100% Median
26 0.2% 33%  
27 1.3% 33%  
28 0% 32%  
29 2% 32%  
30 29% 30%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.6% 100%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 30% 98%  
22 0% 68%  
23 0.4% 68%  
24 67% 67% Median
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 31% 100%  
15 0.7% 68%  
16 0.3% 68%  
17 67% 67% Median
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations