Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 25–28 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 24.6% 23.0–26.4% 22.5–26.9% 22.1–27.4% 21.3–28.3%
Democraten 66 15.0% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.2% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 10.8% 9.6–12.1% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.8% 8.5–13.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 6.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.1% 5.3–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
GroenLinks 5.2% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 2.0–4.9%
Volt Europa 2.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
DENK 2.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
50Plus 1.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 40 40 40–42 38–42 36–42
Democraten 66 24 26 22–26 21–26 21–26 20–26
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 15 15 15–16 14–18 12–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 7 7 7–9 7–13 7–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 7–8 7–9 7–10 7–12
Socialistische Partij 9 8 8 7–8 6–8 6–13
Partij voor de Dieren 6 9 9 8–9 8–9 6–10
GroenLinks 8 7 7 7–8 7–8 6–9
Forum voor Democratie 8 4 4 4 4–6 3–6
ChristenUnie 5 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–7
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 3 3–4 3–6 3–6 3–6
Volt Europa 3 6 6 4–6 4–6 3–7
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 3 3–4 3–5 3–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 4 3–4 3–4 2–4
DENK 3 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–6
Bij1 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–3
50Plus 1 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
35 0.1% 99.7%  
36 0.8% 99.6%  
37 0% 98.7%  
38 3% 98.7%  
39 0% 96%  
40 88% 95% Median
41 2% 7%  
42 5% 5%  
43 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 5% 98%  
22 4% 93%  
23 0.8% 90%  
24 0% 89% Last Result
25 1.1% 89%  
26 88% 88% Median
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 0.6% 98%  
14 2% 98%  
15 88% 95% Median
16 3% 7%  
17 0.8% 5% Last Result
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.8%  
20 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 94% 99.8% Median
8 1.0% 6%  
9 2% 5%  
10 0.3% 3%  
11 0.1% 3%  
12 0% 3%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 88% 100% Median
8 6% 12%  
9 3% 6% Last Result
10 3% 4%  
11 0.2% 0.8%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 5% 99.9%  
7 4% 95%  
8 90% 91% Median
9 0% 0.9% Last Result
10 0.2% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.7%  
12 0% 0.5%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9% Last Result
7 0.3% 98%  
8 4% 98%  
9 93% 94% Median
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 89% 98% Median
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 95% 99.3% Median
5 0.3% 4%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 8% 100%  
4 88% 92% Median
5 3% 4% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.9%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 89% 100% Last Result, Median
4 5% 11%  
5 1.1% 7%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0% 0.3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.8% 100% Last Result
4 7% 99.2%  
5 0.9% 92%  
6 90% 91% Median
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 100%  
3 89% 99.7% Median
4 4% 11%  
5 4% 7%  
6 0.3% 3%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.1% 100%  
3 9% 98.8% Last Result
4 90% 90% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 5% 99.9% Last Result
4 92% 94% Median
5 0.2% 2%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 93% 95% Last Result, Median
2 0% 1.2%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Median
1 5% 6% Last Result
2 0.2% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 87 84 100% 84 81–84 81–85 79–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 86 84 100% 84 81–84 81–84 79–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 77 93% 76–77 73–77 73–77 71–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 70 0% 70–72 70–74 70–74 63–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 73 0% 73 70–73 69–73 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 73 0% 72–73 71–73 69–73 66–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 66 0% 66–68 66–71 66–71 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 62 0% 62 62–67 62–67 57–67
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 70 59 0% 59 57–59 53–62 53–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 58 54 0% 54–56 54–57 54–60 54–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 55 0% 55 55–58 55–59 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 55 0% 55 55–58 55–58 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 51 0% 51 51–55 51–55 48–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 51 0% 51 51–54 51–55 48–57
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 61 51 0% 51 50–51 47–55 47–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 47 0% 47 47–49 47–51 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 47 0% 47 47–50 47–50 44–52
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 48 40 0% 40 38–40 36–44 36–45
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 33 0% 33 29–33 28–35 28–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 29 18 0% 18 18–23 18–25 18–25
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 24 14 0% 14–15 14–19 14–22 14–22

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.5% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.5%  
81 5% 99.4%  
82 0% 95%  
83 1.0% 95%  
84 89% 94% Median
85 3% 5%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0% 0.1% Last Result
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.7%  
80 1.4% 99.2%  
81 4% 98%  
82 3% 94%  
83 0.1% 91%  
84 91% 91% Median
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1% Last Result
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.5% 100%  
71 0% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 6% 98.7%  
74 0% 93%  
75 0.1% 93%  
76 5% 93% Majority
77 88% 88% Median
78 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.6% 100%  
64 0% 99.4%  
65 0.2% 99.3%  
66 0.4% 99.1%  
67 0.1% 98.7%  
68 0.3% 98.6%  
69 0% 98%  
70 88% 98% Median
71 0% 11%  
72 4% 11%  
73 0.7% 7%  
74 6% 6%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 98%  
70 5% 97%  
71 2% 93%  
72 0% 90%  
73 90% 90% Last Result, Median
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.6%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0% 99.4% Last Result
68 0.3% 99.4%  
69 3% 99.1%  
70 0.1% 96%  
71 5% 96%  
72 2% 91%  
73 88% 89% Median
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.2%  
63 0% 99.0%  
64 0.4% 99.0%  
65 0.2% 98.6%  
66 88% 98% Median
67 0% 11%  
68 2% 11%  
69 2% 9%  
70 0.8% 7%  
71 6% 6%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.3%  
59 0.3% 99.0%  
60 0.4% 98.7%  
61 0% 98%  
62 89% 98% Median
63 2% 9%  
64 0.8% 7%  
65 0.4% 7%  
66 0.2% 6% Last Result
67 6% 6%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 3% 100%  
54 1.4% 97%  
55 0.1% 95%  
56 0.2% 95%  
57 0.7% 95%  
58 3% 94%  
59 88% 92% Median
60 0.5% 4%  
61 0% 4%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.2% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 1.1%  
65 0% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.7%  
67 0% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.6%  
69 0% 0.5%  
70 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 88% 99.6% Median
55 0.1% 11%  
56 3% 11%  
57 4% 8%  
58 0% 4% Last Result
59 0.1% 4%  
60 2% 4%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 0.1% 99.2%  
52 0% 99.1%  
53 0.4% 99.1%  
54 0.8% 98.7%  
55 88% 98% Median
56 0.1% 9%  
57 4% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.2%  
52 0.4% 99.1%  
53 0.1% 98.7%  
54 0.8% 98.6%  
55 88% 98% Median
56 4% 9%  
57 0.1% 6%  
58 4% 6%  
59 0.1% 2%  
60 2% 2% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0.7% 99.8%  
49 0% 99.1%  
50 0.1% 99.1%  
51 89% 98.9% Median
52 0% 9%  
53 0.1% 9%  
54 4% 9%  
55 4% 6%  
56 0% 2%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0% 99.8%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 0% 99.0%  
50 0.4% 99.0%  
51 89% 98.5% Median
52 0.1% 9%  
53 4% 9%  
54 1.5% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 0% 2%  
57 2% 2% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 5% 100%  
48 0% 95%  
49 0% 95%  
50 2% 95%  
51 88% 93% Median
52 1.2% 5%  
53 0.2% 4%  
54 0% 3%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.1% 1.0%  
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 0.3% 99.0%  
46 0.6% 98.7%  
47 88% 98% Median
48 2% 10%  
49 3% 8% Last Result
50 0% 4%  
51 4% 4%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
44 0.1% 99.5%  
45 0.1% 99.5%  
46 0.4% 99.3%  
47 90% 98.9% Median
48 0.8% 9%  
49 2% 8%  
50 4% 6%  
51 0% 2%  
52 2% 2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 3% 100%  
37 2% 97%  
38 1.0% 95%  
39 2% 94%  
40 88% 92% Median
41 0% 4%  
42 0.2% 3%  
43 0.2% 3%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.6%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 4% 100%  
29 3% 96%  
30 0.2% 92%  
31 0.6% 92%  
32 0.7% 92%  
33 88% 91% Median
34 0.1% 3%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 93% 100% Median
19 0% 7%  
20 0.4% 7%  
21 0% 7%  
22 1.2% 7%  
23 0.9% 6%  
24 2% 5%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.1% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 88% 100% Median
15 5% 12%  
16 0.8% 7%  
17 1.1% 6%  
18 0.1% 5%  
19 2% 5%  
20 0.7% 3%  
21 0.2% 3%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations