Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 27–30 August 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 24.6% | 22.9–26.4% | 22.5–26.9% | 22.0–27.4% | 21.2–28.2% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 13.5% | 12.2–15.0% | 11.8–15.4% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.5% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.7–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.1–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.7% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.2–8.3% | 4.8–8.8% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.7–7.1% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.3% | 2.5–5.7% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–4.9% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.1–3.9% | 2.0–4.1% | 1.8–4.5% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 35 | 35–40 | 35–42 | 33–42 | 32–43 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 16 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 14–21 | 14–21 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–11 | 7–11 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 4 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 4 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 34 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 35 | 48% | 95% | Median |
| 36 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 37 | 3% | 47% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 43% | |
| 39 | 31% | 43% | |
| 40 | 2% | 12% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 42 | 8% | 9% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 19 | 24% | 96% | |
| 20 | 14% | 72% | |
| 21 | 38% | 58% | Median |
| 22 | 18% | 20% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 16% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 16 | 44% | 83% | Median |
| 17 | 2% | 39% | Last Result |
| 18 | 15% | 37% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 21 | 21% | 21% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 23% | 98% | |
| 10 | 4% | 76% | |
| 11 | 13% | 72% | |
| 12 | 47% | 59% | Median |
| 13 | 12% | 12% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 9 | 20% | 98% | Last Result |
| 10 | 73% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 22% | 98% | |
| 8 | 60% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 13% | 16% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 8% | 87% | |
| 8 | 68% | 80% | Median |
| 9 | 10% | 11% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 39% | 97% | |
| 7 | 39% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 19% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 98% | |
| 5 | 55% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 14% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 40% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 6 | 23% | 24% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 4% | 89% | |
| 5 | 41% | 85% | Median |
| 6 | 43% | 44% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 55% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 34% | |
| 6 | 11% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 29% | 86% | Last Result |
| 4 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 1.4% | 41% | |
| 6 | 40% | 40% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 82% | 93% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 5% | 11% | |
| 5 | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 40% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 8% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 82% | 88% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 6% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 7% | 8% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 87 | 83 | 100% | 81–86 | 81–90 | 78–90 | 78–90 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 86 | 81 | 98% | 79–84 | 79–88 | 78–88 | 75–88 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 73 | 18% | 71–77 | 71–81 | 69–81 | 68–81 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 73 | 24% | 72–77 | 70–77 | 70–77 | 68–79 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 68 | 6% | 67–72 | 66–76 | 63–76 | 62–76 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 70 | 0.3% | 67–74 | 66–74 | 64–74 | 64–75 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 67 | 66 | 0% | 65–70 | 65–73 | 62–73 | 62–73 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 64 | 0% | 63–69 | 62–69 | 60–69 | 60–69 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 63 | 0% | 56–66 | 56–66 | 56–66 | 56–68 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 58 | 58 | 0% | 57–61 | 55–63 | 52–64 | 52–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 54–61 | 52–61 | 52–62 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 54–60 | 52–60 | 52–62 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 61 | 56 | 0% | 50–58 | 50–58 | 50–58 | 50–60 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 52 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–58 | 47–58 | 46–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 52 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–57 | 47–57 | 46–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 48 | 0% | 47–52 | 46–54 | 44–54 | 42–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 45 | 0% | 45–50 | 44–51 | 42–53 | 42–53 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 48 | 43 | 0% | 38–43 | 38–43 | 38–43 | 36–46 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 33 | 0% | 28–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 29 | 27 | 0% | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 20–29 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 24 | 22 | 0% | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 15–24 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 77 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 78 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 81 | 22% | 96% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 74% | |
| 83 | 40% | 73% | Median |
| 84 | 11% | 33% | |
| 85 | 3% | 22% | |
| 86 | 13% | 19% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 6% | Last Result |
| 88 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 90 | 6% | 6% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | 2% | 100% | |
| 76 | 0% | 98% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 98% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 79 | 23% | 97% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 74% | |
| 81 | 41% | 74% | Median |
| 82 | 2% | 32% | |
| 83 | 11% | 30% | |
| 84 | 10% | 20% | |
| 85 | 2% | 9% | |
| 86 | 1.1% | 7% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 88 | 6% | 6% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 2% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 71 | 22% | 96% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 74% | |
| 73 | 38% | 73% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 35% | |
| 75 | 3% | 21% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 18% | Majority |
| 77 | 10% | 17% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 7% | Last Result |
| 79 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 81 | 6% | 6% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 69 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 70 | 4% | 98% | |
| 71 | 2% | 94% | Median |
| 72 | 11% | 92% | |
| 73 | 38% | 81% | |
| 74 | 18% | 44% | |
| 75 | 2% | 26% | |
| 76 | 2% | 24% | Majority |
| 77 | 21% | 23% | Last Result |
| 78 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 2% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 66 | 2% | 96% | |
| 67 | 22% | 94% | |
| 68 | 49% | 71% | Median |
| 69 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 70 | 3% | 23% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 72 | 11% | 18% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 74 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 76 | 6% | 6% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 66 | 2% | 96% | |
| 67 | 39% | 94% | Median |
| 68 | 0.3% | 55% | |
| 69 | 0.5% | 55% | |
| 70 | 21% | 55% | |
| 71 | 6% | 34% | |
| 72 | 5% | 28% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 74 | 21% | 23% | Last Result |
| 75 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 2% | 100% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 65 | 11% | 95% | |
| 66 | 39% | 85% | Median |
| 67 | 1.1% | 45% | Last Result |
| 68 | 23% | 44% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 70 | 14% | 21% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 72 | 0% | 7% | |
| 73 | 6% | 7% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 62 | 2% | 96% | |
| 63 | 38% | 94% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 56% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 45% | |
| 66 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 67 | 1.3% | 34% | |
| 68 | 7% | 32% | |
| 69 | 25% | 25% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 22% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 77% | |
| 58 | 4% | 77% | |
| 59 | 2% | 73% | |
| 60 | 10% | 71% | |
| 61 | 9% | 61% | |
| 62 | 2% | 52% | |
| 63 | 38% | 50% | Median |
| 64 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 66 | 10% | 12% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 57 | 38% | 93% | Median |
| 58 | 33% | 55% | Last Result |
| 59 | 10% | 22% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 61 | 2% | 11% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 63 | 6% | 8% | |
| 64 | 3% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 54 | 12% | 96% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 84% | Median |
| 56 | 22% | 83% | |
| 57 | 38% | 60% | |
| 58 | 4% | 22% | |
| 59 | 2% | 18% | |
| 60 | 10% | 17% | |
| 61 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 62 | 2% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 54 | 13% | 96% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 83% | Median |
| 56 | 21% | 82% | |
| 57 | 38% | 60% | |
| 58 | 4% | 22% | |
| 59 | 2% | 18% | |
| 60 | 15% | 17% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 75% | |
| 52 | 2% | 73% | |
| 53 | 3% | 71% | |
| 54 | 11% | 69% | |
| 55 | 7% | 58% | |
| 56 | 38% | 51% | Median |
| 57 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 58 | 10% | 13% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 60 | 2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 50 | 3% | 96% | |
| 51 | 38% | 94% | Median |
| 52 | 11% | 56% | |
| 53 | 23% | 45% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 22% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 56 | 13% | 20% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 58 | 7% | 7% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 49 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 50 | 3% | 96% | |
| 51 | 37% | 93% | Median |
| 52 | 11% | 56% | |
| 53 | 22% | 45% | |
| 54 | 2% | 22% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 56 | 13% | 20% | |
| 57 | 6% | 7% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 46 | 4% | 96% | |
| 47 | 38% | 93% | Median |
| 48 | 32% | 55% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 23% | Last Result |
| 50 | 12% | 23% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 52 | 2% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 8% | |
| 54 | 6% | 6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 45 | 48% | 95% | Median |
| 46 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 47 | 2% | 46% | |
| 48 | 12% | 45% | |
| 49 | 23% | 33% | |
| 50 | 2% | 10% | |
| 51 | 6% | 8% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 53 | 3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 23% | 98% | |
| 39 | 3% | 75% | |
| 40 | 4% | 72% | |
| 41 | 2% | 68% | |
| 42 | 10% | 66% | |
| 43 | 54% | 56% | Median |
| 44 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 2% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 25% | 98% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 73% | |
| 30 | 3% | 73% | |
| 31 | 2% | 71% | |
| 32 | 2% | 68% | |
| 33 | 58% | 66% | Median |
| 34 | 7% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 23 | 22% | 98% | |
| 24 | 2% | 77% | |
| 25 | 11% | 75% | |
| 26 | 12% | 64% | |
| 27 | 39% | 52% | Median |
| 28 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 29 | 12% | 12% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 19 | 23% | 98% | |
| 20 | 13% | 75% | |
| 21 | 10% | 62% | |
| 22 | 40% | 52% | Median |
| 23 | 11% | 12% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 2% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 27–30 August 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.34%