Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 3–4 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 24.6% 23.6–25.6% 23.3–25.9% 23.1–26.2% 22.6–26.7%
Democraten 66 15.0% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
GroenLinks 5.2% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Volt Europa 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Belang van Nederland 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 39 36–39 36–40 36–40 36–41
Democraten 66 24 18 17–18 16–19 16–19 16–21
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 17 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–19
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Socialistische Partij 9 9 9–11 9–11 9–11 8–11
GroenLinks 8 8 8–10 8–10 6–10 6–10
Partij voor de Dieren 6 7 7–8 7–9 7–10 7–10
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 7 7–8 6–9 5–9 5–9
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–7
Forum voor Democratie 8 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Volt Europa 3 6 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Bij1 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Belang van Nederland 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.3% 100%  
36 13% 99.7%  
37 11% 87%  
38 0.6% 76%  
39 67% 75% Median
40 7% 8%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 10% 100%  
17 10% 90%  
18 75% 81% Median
19 4% 6%  
20 0.7% 2%  
21 1.1% 1.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.1% 100%  
15 12% 98.9%  
16 8% 86%  
17 76% 78% Last Result, Median
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.7% 0.7%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 2% 100% Last Result
10 6% 98%  
11 14% 93%  
12 67% 79% Median
13 12% 12%  
14 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 83% 98% Last Result, Median
10 4% 15%  
11 10% 10%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 3% 100%  
7 1.3% 97%  
8 74% 96% Last Result, Median
9 12% 22%  
10 10% 10%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 68% 100% Median
8 22% 32%  
9 7% 10%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 3% 100%  
6 6% 97%  
7 72% 91% Median
8 14% 19%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 81% 98% Median
7 15% 17%  
8 1.0% 1.4%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 78% 99.9% Last Result, Median
6 17% 22%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100%  
4 22% 99.0%  
5 72% 77% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.6% 100% Last Result
4 76% 99.4% Median
5 22% 24%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100% Last Result
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 37% 99.6%  
6 63% 63% Median
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 85% 97% Last Result, Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 87% 92% Last Result, Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 63% 100% Median
1 37% 37% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Belang van Nederland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 87 81 100% 79–81 77–81 77–81 77–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 86 77 99.6% 76–77 76–77 76–78 76–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0% 67–71 67–73 67–73 67–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 69 0% 68–69 66–69 66–70 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 69 0% 65–69 65–69 65–70 65–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 68 0% 63–68 63–70 63–70 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 63 0% 59–63 59–65 59–65 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 64 0% 62–64 61–64 61–64 61–67
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 70 59 0% 58–63 57–63 57–63 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 58 58 0% 55–58 55–58 55–58 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 54 0% 51–55 51–56 51–56 50–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 54 0% 51–55 51–56 51–56 50–56
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 61 50 0% 49–54 48–54 47–54 47–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 51 0% 48–52 48–53 48–53 47–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 51 0% 48–52 48–53 48–53 47–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 51 0% 48–51 48–52 48–52 45–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 46 0% 44–46 44–48 44–48 42–49
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 48 37 0% 35–39 34–39 34–39 34–39
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 29 24 0% 23–27 23–27 22–27 20–27
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 25 0% 24–26 24–26 22–26 22–27
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 24 19 0% 18–21 18–21 16–21 15–21

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 10% 100%  
78 0.1% 90%  
79 7% 90%  
80 1.3% 83%  
81 80% 82% Median
82 1.0% 2%  
83 1.1% 1.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 13% 99.6% Majority
77 83% 87% Median
78 2% 3%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 1.3% 1.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 14% 99.7%  
68 9% 86%  
69 4% 77%  
70 0.6% 72%  
71 66% 72% Median
72 0.1% 5%  
73 5% 5%  
74 0% 0.2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 8% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 91%  
68 15% 91%  
69 71% 76% Median
70 3% 5%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 1.3% 2%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.3% 100%  
65 14% 99.7%  
66 2% 86%  
67 13% 84% Last Result
68 5% 71%  
69 62% 66% Median
70 3% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 12% 99.9%  
64 2% 88%  
65 9% 86%  
66 4% 77%  
67 1.2% 73%  
68 66% 72% Median
69 0.6% 6%  
70 5% 5%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 13% 99.7%  
60 1.4% 87%  
61 11% 85%  
62 6% 74%  
63 62% 68% Median
64 0% 6%  
65 6% 6%  
66 0% 0.2% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 9% 99.9%  
62 18% 91%  
63 2% 73%  
64 69% 71% Median
65 0.2% 2%  
66 0.3% 2%  
67 1.1% 1.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 8% 99.5%  
58 5% 92%  
59 61% 87% Median
60 3% 25%  
61 10% 22%  
62 1.2% 13%  
63 12% 12%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 1.2% 100%  
52 0% 98.8%  
53 0.3% 98.8%  
54 0.2% 98%  
55 10% 98%  
56 3% 88%  
57 13% 85%  
58 71% 73% Last Result, Median
59 0.2% 1.2%  
60 1.1% 1.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 1.1% 99.6%  
51 10% 98%  
52 13% 88%  
53 3% 75%  
54 62% 73% Median
55 6% 11%  
56 5% 5%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 1.1% 99.6%  
51 10% 98%  
52 13% 88%  
53 3% 75%  
54 62% 73% Median
55 6% 11%  
56 5% 5%  
57 0% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 3% 99.8%  
48 5% 97%  
49 6% 92%  
50 72% 86% Median
51 1.2% 15%  
52 2% 14%  
53 0.1% 12%  
54 12% 12%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 2% 100%  
48 20% 98%  
49 2% 78%  
50 4% 76%  
51 61% 72% Median
52 6% 11%  
53 5% 5%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 2% 100%  
48 20% 98%  
49 2% 78%  
50 4% 76%  
51 61% 72% Median
52 6% 11%  
53 5% 5%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 1.2% 100%  
46 0.4% 98.7%  
47 0.1% 98%  
48 10% 98%  
49 18% 88%  
50 0.6% 71%  
51 64% 70% Median
52 6% 6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 1.4% 100%  
43 0.6% 98.6%  
44 21% 98%  
45 4% 77%  
46 67% 73% Median
47 0.2% 6%  
48 5% 6%  
49 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 5% 99.9%  
35 16% 95%  
36 2% 78%  
37 64% 77% Median
38 0.6% 13%  
39 12% 12%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.8% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.2%  
22 3% 98.8%  
23 10% 96%  
24 68% 86% Median
25 6% 18%  
26 0.8% 12%  
27 12% 12%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 5% 100%  
23 0.4% 95%  
24 11% 95%  
25 68% 84% Median
26 14% 16%  
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.3% 100%  
16 2% 98.7%  
17 1.2% 96%  
18 14% 95%  
19 68% 81% Median
20 0.8% 13%  
21 12% 12%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations