Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 17–18 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 23.3% 22.3–24.3% 22.0–24.6% 21.8–24.8% 21.3–25.3%
Democraten 66 15.0% 13.3% 12.5–14.1% 12.3–14.4% 12.1–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 10.6% 9.9–11.4% 9.7–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
GroenLinks 5.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Volt Europa 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Belang van Nederland 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 36 33–38 33–38 32–38 32–38
Democraten 66 24 22 19–23 19–23 19–23 17–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 17 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–13 10–13 10–14 10–14
GroenLinks 8 10 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–11
Socialistische Partij 9 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–9
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 8 6–8 6–8 6–8 5–8
ChristenUnie 5 7 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 6 7 6–7 6–7 6–7 6–8
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 6 6–7 6–8 6–8 6–8
Forum voor Democratie 8 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Volt Europa 3 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Bij1 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2
Belang van Nederland 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 5% 100%  
33 8% 95%  
34 5% 87% Last Result
35 26% 82%  
36 15% 57% Median
37 22% 42%  
38 20% 20%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.8% 100%  
18 2% 99.2%  
19 24% 98%  
20 12% 74%  
21 9% 62%  
22 14% 53% Median
23 39% 39%  
24 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 14% 100%  
15 6% 86%  
16 27% 80%  
17 39% 53% Last Result, Median
18 13% 13%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100% Last Result
10 34% 99.6%  
11 26% 66% Median
12 27% 40%  
13 9% 12%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 8% 100%  
8 15% 92% Last Result
9 6% 77%  
10 65% 71% Median
11 6% 6%  
12 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 21% 100%  
7 26% 79%  
8 22% 53% Median
9 31% 31% Last Result
10 0.2% 0.4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 16% 99.4%  
7 26% 83%  
8 57% 57% Median
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 46% 99.9%  
7 51% 54% Median
8 2% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 36% 100% Last Result
7 62% 64% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 55% 99.8% Median
7 37% 45%  
8 8% 8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 7% 99.9%  
5 78% 93% Median
6 15% 16%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100% Last Result
4 7% 99.8%  
5 84% 92% Median
6 9% 9%  
7 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 25% 100% Last Result
4 20% 75%  
5 34% 55% Median
6 20% 20%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 74% 99.0% Median
3 25% 25% Last Result
4 0.6% 0.9%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 32% 99.9%  
3 61% 68% Last Result, Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 60% 66% Last Result, Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Belang van Nederland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 87 82 100% 80–86 77–86 77–86 77–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 86 81 99.9% 77–85 76–85 76–85 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 78 72 0.1% 67–75 66–75 66–75 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 68 0% 65–71 64–71 64–71 63–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 67 0% 63–69 63–71 61–71 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 65 0% 61–68 59–68 59–68 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 65 0% 61–66 61–68 59–68 59–68
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 70 63 0% 61–66 61–66 61–67 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 60 0% 55–61 55–62 55–62 55–62
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 61 55 0% 54–59 53–59 53–59 51–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 58 55 0% 52–57 50–57 50–57 50–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 51 0% 47–52 47–53 46–53 46–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 51 0% 47–52 47–53 46–53 46–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 48 0% 45–50 45–50 44–50 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 57 48 0% 45–50 45–50 44–50 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 47 0% 44–50 44–50 44–50 43–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 43 0% 40–45 39–45 39–45 39–45
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 48 40 0% 38–42 37–42 37–42 34–42
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 29 0% 26–31 25–31 25–31 23–31
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 29 25 0% 24–27 24–27 24–27 24–29
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 24 18 0% 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–21

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 6% 100%  
78 2% 94%  
79 1.2% 92%  
80 6% 91%  
81 9% 86%  
82 35% 76%  
83 26% 42%  
84 0.3% 16% Median
85 2% 16%  
86 14% 14%  
87 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 9% 99.9% Majority
77 8% 91%  
78 6% 83%  
79 15% 77%  
80 4% 62%  
81 18% 58%  
82 26% 40%  
83 0.3% 14% Median
84 0.1% 14%  
85 14% 14%  
86 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 6% 100%  
67 5% 94%  
68 10% 89%  
69 4% 79%  
70 1.0% 75%  
71 23% 74%  
72 36% 51%  
73 0.1% 15% Median
74 0.9% 15%  
75 14% 14%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 7% 99.2%  
65 6% 92%  
66 0.4% 86%  
67 5% 86% Last Result
68 35% 80%  
69 26% 46% Median
70 0.1% 20%  
71 20% 20%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.3% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 5% 100%  
62 0% 95%  
63 7% 95%  
64 0.1% 88%  
65 0.1% 88%  
66 19% 88%  
67 28% 68%  
68 28% 40% Median
69 5% 12%  
70 0.1% 8%  
71 8% 8%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 7% 100%  
60 0.2% 93%  
61 9% 93%  
62 9% 84%  
63 1.4% 75%  
64 18% 73%  
65 8% 55%  
66 32% 47% Median
67 1.0% 15%  
68 14% 14%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 5% 99.9%  
60 0% 95%  
61 7% 95%  
62 0.2% 88%  
63 0.8% 88%  
64 21% 87%  
65 36% 66%  
66 23% 30% Median
67 0.6% 8%  
68 7% 7%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 2% 100%  
60 0.2% 98%  
61 30% 98%  
62 17% 68%  
63 6% 51%  
64 1.0% 45%  
65 0.3% 44%  
66 39% 44% Median
67 5% 5%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 12% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 88%  
57 0.1% 88%  
58 0.9% 88%  
59 20% 87%  
60 36% 67%  
61 22% 30% Median
62 8% 8%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.6% 99.9%  
52 1.1% 99.3%  
53 8% 98%  
54 12% 90%  
55 32% 79%  
56 3% 47%  
57 26% 44%  
58 5% 19% Median
59 14% 14%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 7% 100%  
51 0.1% 93%  
52 6% 93%  
53 26% 87%  
54 8% 61%  
55 13% 53% Median
56 22% 40%  
57 18% 19%  
58 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 5% 100%  
47 6% 95%  
48 1.1% 89%  
49 5% 88%  
50 31% 82%  
51 8% 52% Median
52 36% 44%  
53 8% 8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 5% 100%  
47 6% 95%  
48 1.1% 89%  
49 5% 88%  
50 31% 82%  
51 8% 52% Median
52 36% 44%  
53 8% 8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 5% 99.9%  
45 6% 95%  
46 2% 89%  
47 10% 87%  
48 33% 78%  
49 6% 45% Median
50 39% 39%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 5% 99.9%  
45 6% 95%  
46 2% 89%  
47 10% 87%  
48 33% 78%  
49 6% 45% Median
50 39% 39%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
44 11% 98.7%  
45 25% 87%  
46 8% 62%  
47 6% 54% Median
48 17% 48%  
49 8% 31%  
50 21% 23%  
51 0.9% 1.2%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 6% 99.9%  
40 6% 94%  
41 0.7% 88%  
42 10% 87%  
43 33% 78%  
44 12% 44% Median
45 32% 33%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.8% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.2%  
36 0.3% 99.1%  
37 7% 98.8%  
38 19% 92%  
39 10% 73%  
40 13% 63%  
41 35% 49% Median
42 14% 14%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.8% 100%  
24 0.6% 99.2%  
25 4% 98.7%  
26 27% 94%  
27 1.2% 68%  
28 13% 67%  
29 7% 54%  
30 8% 46% Median
31 39% 39%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 44% 99.8%  
25 7% 56%  
26 35% 49% Median
27 13% 14%  
28 0.1% 0.6%  
29 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 9% 99.7%  
18 42% 91%  
19 33% 50% Median
20 12% 17%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

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