Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 24–27 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
23.3% |
21.7–25.1% |
21.2–25.6% |
20.8–26.1% |
20.0–26.9% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
12.1% |
10.8–13.5% |
10.5–13.9% |
10.2–14.3% |
9.6–15.0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
11.3% |
10.1–12.7% |
9.7–13.0% |
9.4–13.4% |
8.9–14.1% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
5.9% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.6% |
4.2–8.1% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
5.9% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.6% |
4.2–8.1% |
GroenLinks |
5.2% |
5.7% |
4.9–6.8% |
4.6–7.1% |
4.5–7.4% |
4.1–7.9% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
5.5% |
4.7–6.6% |
4.5–6.9% |
4.3–7.1% |
3.9–7.7% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
5.3% |
4.5–6.4% |
4.3–6.7% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.7–7.4% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
3.9% |
3.2–4.8% |
3.0–5.1% |
2.9–5.3% |
2.6–5.8% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
3.7% |
3.0–4.6% |
2.9–4.9% |
2.7–5.1% |
2.4–5.6% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
3.5% |
2.9–4.4% |
2.7–4.6% |
2.5–4.9% |
2.3–5.3% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.4% |
2.8–4.3% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.5–4.8% |
2.2–5.2% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.9–4.7% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.5% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.5% |
1.7–3.7% |
1.5–4.1% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
1.9% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.3–2.8% |
1.2–3.0% |
1.0–3.3% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.5–1.8% |
0.4–2.1% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.2–0.8% |
0.2–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
31 |
23% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
9% |
77% |
|
33 |
0.4% |
67% |
|
34 |
3% |
67% |
Last Result |
35 |
36% |
64% |
Median |
36 |
10% |
28% |
|
37 |
12% |
18% |
|
38 |
5% |
6% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
42 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
5% |
94% |
|
17 |
10% |
89% |
|
18 |
8% |
79% |
|
19 |
4% |
72% |
|
20 |
23% |
68% |
Median |
21 |
17% |
45% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
28% |
|
23 |
27% |
27% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
16 |
31% |
96% |
|
17 |
30% |
65% |
Last Result, Median |
18 |
19% |
35% |
|
19 |
6% |
16% |
|
20 |
8% |
10% |
|
21 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
13% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
11% |
87% |
|
9 |
38% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
10 |
25% |
38% |
|
11 |
10% |
13% |
|
12 |
3% |
3% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
31% |
98% |
|
8 |
29% |
67% |
Median |
9 |
23% |
38% |
|
10 |
3% |
15% |
|
11 |
5% |
12% |
|
12 |
2% |
6% |
|
13 |
5% |
5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
9% |
100% |
|
7 |
15% |
91% |
|
8 |
9% |
76% |
Last Result |
9 |
57% |
67% |
Median |
10 |
7% |
11% |
|
11 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
12 |
2% |
2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
7 |
34% |
96% |
|
8 |
40% |
62% |
Median |
9 |
1.1% |
22% |
|
10 |
21% |
21% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
3% |
100% |
|
6 |
6% |
97% |
|
7 |
15% |
92% |
|
8 |
48% |
77% |
Median |
9 |
0.8% |
29% |
Last Result |
10 |
26% |
28% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
34% |
87% |
|
6 |
14% |
52% |
Median |
7 |
32% |
38% |
|
8 |
6% |
6% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
37% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
14% |
63% |
Median |
6 |
38% |
49% |
|
7 |
7% |
10% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
96% |
|
5 |
47% |
89% |
Median |
6 |
12% |
42% |
|
7 |
30% |
31% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
3% |
100% |
|
4 |
43% |
96% |
|
5 |
9% |
54% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
34% |
45% |
|
7 |
10% |
11% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
3 |
13% |
99.7% |
|
4 |
65% |
87% |
Median |
5 |
17% |
22% |
|
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
13% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
14% |
87% |
Last Result |
4 |
61% |
73% |
Median |
5 |
5% |
12% |
|
6 |
7% |
7% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
2 |
19% |
99.8% |
|
3 |
13% |
81% |
Last Result |
4 |
66% |
69% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
28% |
100% |
|
1 |
53% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
18% |
19% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
11% |
11% |
Last Result |
2 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
87 |
77 |
56% |
72–81 |
72–81 |
72–82 |
70–83 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
86 |
75 |
49% |
71–81 |
71–81 |
71–81 |
69–81 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
67 |
0% |
63–72 |
63–72 |
63–72 |
62–74 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
68 |
0% |
62–72 |
62–72 |
62–72 |
62–73 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
67 |
62 |
0% |
61–67 |
60–67 |
60–69 |
57–70 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
63 |
0% |
59–68 |
59–69 |
59–69 |
59–70 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
63 |
0% |
58–66 |
58–66 |
57–67 |
56–67 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
59 |
0% |
55–64 |
55–64 |
55–65 |
55–67 |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie |
70 |
60 |
0% |
53–63 |
52–63 |
51–63 |
51–63 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
58 |
52 |
0% |
48–55 |
48–56 |
48–56 |
47–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
51 |
0% |
46–54 |
46–56 |
46–56 |
46–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
51 |
0% |
46–54 |
46–56 |
46–56 |
46–57 |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
61 |
50 |
0% |
46–55 |
44–55 |
44–55 |
43–55 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
47 |
0% |
42–50 |
42–53 |
42–53 |
42–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
47 |
0% |
42–50 |
42–52 |
42–53 |
42–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
43 |
44 |
0% |
41–46 |
40–47 |
40–48 |
40–51 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
43 |
0% |
38–46 |
38–47 |
38–47 |
38–48 |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
48 |
37 |
0% |
32–40 |
32–40 |
31–40 |
31–42 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
27 |
0% |
25–31 |
23–31 |
23–31 |
23–31 |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
29 |
23 |
0% |
21–24 |
19–25 |
18–26 |
18–26 |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
24 |
17 |
0% |
16–19 |
14–19 |
14–19 |
12–20 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
69 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
70 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
72 |
24% |
98% |
|
73 |
4% |
74% |
|
74 |
3% |
70% |
|
75 |
12% |
68% |
|
76 |
5% |
56% |
Majority |
77 |
14% |
51% |
Median |
78 |
0.4% |
37% |
|
79 |
7% |
37% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
30% |
|
81 |
27% |
30% |
|
82 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
83 |
2% |
2% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
71 |
24% |
99.4% |
|
72 |
0.9% |
75% |
|
73 |
6% |
74% |
|
74 |
6% |
69% |
|
75 |
13% |
62% |
|
76 |
8% |
49% |
Majority |
77 |
10% |
41% |
Median |
78 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
30% |
|
80 |
0.8% |
30% |
|
81 |
29% |
29% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
26% |
99.3% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
74% |
|
65 |
3% |
74% |
|
66 |
0.6% |
70% |
|
67 |
27% |
70% |
|
68 |
9% |
42% |
Median |
69 |
11% |
34% |
|
70 |
5% |
22% |
|
71 |
3% |
17% |
|
72 |
13% |
14% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
74 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
62 |
24% |
99.5% |
|
63 |
0.3% |
75% |
|
64 |
3% |
75% |
|
65 |
5% |
72% |
|
66 |
8% |
67% |
|
67 |
7% |
59% |
|
68 |
12% |
52% |
Median |
69 |
2% |
39% |
|
70 |
7% |
37% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
30% |
|
72 |
27% |
30% |
|
73 |
2% |
2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
59 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
60 |
7% |
98% |
|
61 |
36% |
90% |
|
62 |
8% |
54% |
|
63 |
3% |
46% |
|
64 |
3% |
43% |
Median |
65 |
3% |
40% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
37% |
|
67 |
33% |
36% |
Last Result |
68 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
69 |
2% |
3% |
|
70 |
2% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
3% |
77% |
|
61 |
3% |
74% |
|
62 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
63 |
27% |
70% |
|
64 |
0.5% |
44% |
Median |
65 |
9% |
43% |
|
66 |
12% |
34% |
|
67 |
1.1% |
22% |
|
68 |
12% |
21% |
|
69 |
6% |
9% |
|
70 |
2% |
2% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
58 |
23% |
97% |
|
59 |
2% |
74% |
|
60 |
3% |
71% |
|
61 |
4% |
69% |
|
62 |
11% |
64% |
|
63 |
15% |
54% |
Median |
64 |
9% |
39% |
|
65 |
0.4% |
30% |
|
66 |
27% |
30% |
|
67 |
3% |
3% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
52 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
5% |
77% |
|
57 |
0.8% |
72% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
71% |
|
59 |
27% |
70% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
44% |
Median |
61 |
10% |
43% |
|
62 |
9% |
34% |
|
63 |
12% |
25% |
|
64 |
9% |
12% |
|
65 |
3% |
3% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
67 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
4% |
96% |
|
53 |
7% |
92% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
85% |
|
55 |
9% |
84% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
76% |
|
57 |
3% |
75% |
|
58 |
8% |
73% |
|
59 |
3% |
64% |
Median |
60 |
25% |
62% |
|
61 |
9% |
37% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
27% |
|
63 |
27% |
27% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
25% |
99.1% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
74% |
|
50 |
7% |
73% |
|
51 |
7% |
66% |
|
52 |
28% |
59% |
Median |
53 |
8% |
31% |
|
54 |
12% |
24% |
|
55 |
4% |
11% |
|
56 |
6% |
8% |
|
57 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
58 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
4% |
77% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
73% |
|
49 |
12% |
73% |
|
50 |
9% |
61% |
|
51 |
30% |
53% |
Median |
52 |
5% |
23% |
|
53 |
0.6% |
18% |
|
54 |
10% |
17% |
|
55 |
2% |
7% |
|
56 |
5% |
6% |
|
57 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
25% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
1.2% |
74% |
|
48 |
3% |
73% |
|
49 |
9% |
70% |
|
50 |
9% |
61% |
|
51 |
35% |
52% |
Median |
52 |
0.4% |
18% |
|
53 |
0.7% |
17% |
|
54 |
9% |
17% |
|
55 |
2% |
7% |
|
56 |
5% |
5% |
|
57 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
7% |
98.7% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
46 |
4% |
91% |
|
47 |
12% |
87% |
|
48 |
1.4% |
75% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
74% |
|
50 |
25% |
74% |
|
51 |
7% |
49% |
Median |
52 |
3% |
42% |
|
53 |
11% |
38% |
|
54 |
0.4% |
27% |
|
55 |
27% |
27% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
77% |
|
44 |
3% |
76% |
|
45 |
10% |
73% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
64% |
|
47 |
30% |
64% |
Median |
48 |
11% |
34% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
50 |
14% |
23% |
|
51 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
52 |
3% |
8% |
|
53 |
5% |
5% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
43 |
3% |
77% |
|
44 |
3% |
74% |
|
45 |
7% |
71% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
64% |
|
47 |
30% |
63% |
Median |
48 |
11% |
34% |
|
49 |
5% |
23% |
|
50 |
9% |
17% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
52 |
3% |
8% |
|
53 |
4% |
5% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
41 |
23% |
93% |
|
42 |
0.9% |
69% |
|
43 |
10% |
69% |
Last Result |
44 |
35% |
59% |
Median |
45 |
3% |
24% |
|
46 |
14% |
21% |
|
47 |
5% |
8% |
|
48 |
2% |
3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
51 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
23% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
5% |
77% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
72% |
|
41 |
0.4% |
71% |
|
42 |
7% |
71% |
|
43 |
35% |
63% |
Median |
44 |
7% |
28% |
|
45 |
3% |
21% |
|
46 |
9% |
17% |
|
47 |
7% |
8% |
|
48 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
31 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
7% |
97% |
|
33 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
34 |
14% |
89% |
|
35 |
4% |
75% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
72% |
|
37 |
26% |
71% |
Median |
38 |
2% |
45% |
|
39 |
9% |
43% |
|
40 |
33% |
34% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
5% |
99.6% |
|
24 |
2% |
95% |
|
25 |
12% |
93% |
|
26 |
4% |
81% |
|
27 |
34% |
77% |
|
28 |
0.7% |
43% |
Median |
29 |
8% |
42% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
34% |
|
31 |
34% |
34% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
33 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
18 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
4% |
96% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
92% |
|
21 |
29% |
91% |
|
22 |
10% |
62% |
Median |
23 |
36% |
52% |
|
24 |
9% |
17% |
|
25 |
5% |
8% |
|
26 |
3% |
3% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
14 |
7% |
99.2% |
|
15 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
16 |
5% |
91% |
|
17 |
57% |
86% |
Median |
18 |
11% |
29% |
|
19 |
17% |
17% |
|
20 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
21 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–27 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 994
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.39%