Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 1–2 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 23.9% 23.0–25.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.4–25.5% 22.0–26.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Democraten 66 15.0% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
GroenLinks 5.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Volt Europa 2.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Belang van Nederland 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 38 35–38 35–38 35–38 35–38
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 18 18 18 18 18
Democraten 66 24 18 18 18 18 18
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11 11 11 11
GroenLinks 8 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
Socialistische Partij 9 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 9–10
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 7 7 7
Partij voor de Dieren 6 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 7–8
Forum voor Democratie 8 5 5 5 5 5
Volt Europa 3 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Bij1 1 0 0 0 0 0
Belang van Nederland 0 0 0 0 0 0
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 17% 100%  
36 0% 83%  
37 0% 83%  
38 83% 83% Median
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 100% 100% Median

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 100% 100% Median
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 0% 100%  
11 100% 100% Median

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 83% 100% Median
10 17% 17%  
11 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 17% 100% Last Result
10 83% 83% Median
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 100% 100% Median

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 17% 100%  
8 83% 83% Median
9 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 17% 100%  
8 83% 83% Median
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 100% 100% Median
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 83% 100% Median
6 17% 17%  
7 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 83% 100% Median
5 0% 17%  
6 17% 17%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 17% 100%  
5 83% 83% Median
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 83% 100% Median
3 17% 17% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 83% 100% Median
3 0% 17% Last Result
4 17% 17%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Belang van Nederland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 87 78 100% 77–78 77–78 77–78 77–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 86 76 100% 76 76 76 76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 67 0% 67 67 67 67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 78 67 0% 66–67 66–67 66–67 66–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 67 0% 64–67 64–67 64–67 64–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 65 0% 64–65 64–65 64–65 64–65
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 70 59 0% 59–61 59–61 59–61 59–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 60 0% 59–60 59–60 59–60 59–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 60 0% 59–60 59–60 59–60 59–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 58 53 0% 52–53 52–53 52–53 52–53
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 49 0% 49–52 49–52 49–52 49–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 49 0% 49 49 49 49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 49 0% 49 49 49 49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 49 0% 46–49 46–49 46–49 46–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 47 0% 46–47 46–47 46–47 46–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 57 47 0% 46–47 46–47 46–47 46–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 42 0% 41–42 41–42 41–42 41–42
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 48 33 0% 33–35 33–35 33–35 33–35
Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 29 22 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 22–24
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 22 0% 22–24 22–24 22–24 22–24
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 24 15 0% 15–17 15–17 15–17 15–17

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 17% 100%  
78 83% 83% Median
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 100% 100% Median, Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 100% 100% Median
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 17% 100%  
67 83% 83% Median
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 17% 100%  
65 0% 83%  
66 0% 83%  
67 83% 83% Last Result, Median
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 17% 100%  
65 83% 83% Median
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 83% 100% Median
60 0% 17%  
61 17% 17%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 17% 100%  
60 83% 83% Median
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 17% 100%  
60 83% 83% Median
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 17% 100%  
53 83% 83% Median
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 83% 100% Median
50 0% 17%  
51 0% 17%  
52 17% 17%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 100% 100% Median
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 100% 100% Median
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100% Last Result
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 17% 100%  
47 0% 83%  
48 0% 83%  
49 83% 83% Median
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 17% 100%  
47 83% 83% Median
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 17% 100%  
47 83% 83% Median
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 17% 100%  
42 83% 83% Median
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 83% 100% Median
34 0% 17%  
35 17% 17%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 83% 100% Median
23 0% 17%  
24 17% 17%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 83% 100% Median
23 0% 17%  
24 17% 17%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 83% 100% Median
16 0% 17%  
17 17% 17%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations