Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 8–9 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.9% 22.6% 21.6–23.6% 21.4–23.9% 21.1–24.1% 20.7–24.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 10.8% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Democraten 66 15.0% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.6–8.1% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
GroenLinks 5.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 6.0% 6.0% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 4.9–7.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.8% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 5.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
BoerBurgerBeweging 1.0% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Volt Europa 2.4% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 9.5% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Juiste Antwoord 2021 2.4% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Bij1 0.8% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
Belang van Nederland 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.2%
50Plus 1.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 34 36 35–36 33–36 33–37 31–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 17 21 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–21
Democraten 66 24 17 17 17–18 16–18 16–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
GroenLinks 8 9 9 8–9 8–9 8–11
Socialistische Partij 9 8 8–9 8–9 8–9 8–10
Partij voor de Dieren 6 7 7 7 7–8 6–9
ChristenUnie 5 7 7 6–7 5–8 5–8
Forum voor Democratie 8 6 6–7 6–7 6–8 6–8
BoerBurgerBeweging 1 7 7 6–7 6–7 6–8
Volt Europa 3 6 6–7 6–7 6–7 5–7
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 15 5 5 5 5 4–6
Juiste Antwoord 2021 3 4 4 4 4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 3 3–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Bij1 1 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Belang van Nederland 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
50Plus 1 0 0 0 0 0

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 1.3% 100%  
32 0.1% 98.7%  
33 7% 98.6%  
34 2% 92% Last Result
35 4% 90%  
36 83% 86% Median
37 2% 3%  
38 0.5% 0.5%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 3% 100% Last Result
18 8% 97%  
19 1.2% 89%  
20 5% 88%  
21 83% 83% Median
22 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 87% 97% Median
18 9% 9%  
19 0.2% 0.7%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 84% 99.8% Median
11 3% 16%  
12 4% 13%  
13 9% 9%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 6% 99.8% Last Result
9 93% 94% Median
10 0.2% 0.7%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 88% 99.9% Median
9 10% 12% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100% Last Result
7 94% 98% Median
8 2% 3%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 5% 100% Last Result
6 2% 95%  
7 91% 94% Median
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 85% 99.9% Median
7 11% 15%  
8 4% 4% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

BoerBurgerBeweging

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 5% 100%  
7 93% 95% Median
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Volt Europa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0% 100% Last Result
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 89% 99.5% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 96% 98% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0% Last Result

Juiste Antwoord 2021

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.8% 100%  
3 1.4% 99.2% Last Result
4 97% 98% Median
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 94% 98% Last Result, Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 87% 87% Last Result, Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Bij1

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 93% 93% Last Result, Median
2 0% 0%  

Belang van Nederland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Belang van Nederland page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 87 75 11% 75–76 74–76 74–77 72–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 86 74 0.8% 72–74 70–74 70–75 68–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 71 0% 68–71 66–71 66–72 64–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 74 68 0% 64–68 63–68 63–68 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 78 65 0% 63–65 62–65 62–66 59–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 67 63 0% 63–64 63–64 63–64 60–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 66 62 0% 58–62 56–62 56–62 55–62
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 70 56 0% 56–59 56–61 55–61 55–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 73 58 0% 57–58 56–58 56–58 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 58 51 0% 51 51–52 51–52 50–54
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus 61 50 0% 49–50 48–52 48–52 47–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 60 50 0% 49–50 48–52 48–52 47–53
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 61 48 0% 48–50 48–52 47–52 46–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 43 46 0% 46 46–47 46–48 44–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus 58 47 0% 47 45–48 45–48 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 57 47 0% 47 45–48 45–48 44–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 49 41 0% 39–41 38–41 38–42 37–43
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 48 32 0% 32–34 32–36 32–36 31–36
Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 29 22 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 20–25
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 39 22 0% 22 22–23 21–23 20–25
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 24 15 0% 15–17 15–18 15–18 15–19

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 1.2% 100%  
73 0.6% 98.7%  
74 4% 98%  
75 83% 94% Median
76 8% 11% Majority
77 3% 4%  
78 0.6% 0.6%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 1.3% 100%  
69 0% 98.7%  
70 4% 98.7%  
71 0.3% 95%  
72 8% 94%  
73 0.4% 87%  
74 83% 86% Median
75 2% 3%  
76 0.7% 0.8% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.8% 100%  
65 0% 99.2%  
66 8% 99.2%  
67 0.3% 91%  
68 1.4% 91%  
69 2% 90%  
70 0.3% 88%  
71 83% 87% Median
72 4% 4%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.8% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.2%  
63 7% 99.1%  
64 2% 92%  
65 0.3% 90%  
66 2% 90%  
67 0.5% 88%  
68 87% 87% Median
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 1.3% 100%  
60 0% 98.7%  
61 0% 98.7%  
62 4% 98.7%  
63 8% 95%  
64 1.0% 87%  
65 83% 86% Median
66 2% 3%  
67 0.2% 0.7%  
68 0.5% 0.5%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Majority
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 1.3% 100%  
61 0% 98.6%  
62 0.2% 98.6%  
63 84% 98% Median
64 12% 15%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.6%  
67 0% 0.5% Last Result
68 0.4% 0.4%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.8% 100%  
56 7% 99.2%  
57 2% 92%  
58 0.7% 90%  
59 2% 90%  
60 4% 88%  
61 0.3% 84%  
62 83% 83% Median
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.5% 100%  
55 3% 99.5%  
56 83% 96% Median
57 0.3% 13%  
58 2% 12%  
59 2% 11%  
60 1.0% 9%  
61 8% 8%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 1.2% 100%  
54 0.1% 98.7%  
55 0.1% 98.7%  
56 8% 98.6%  
57 4% 90%  
58 85% 86% Median
59 0.4% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0% 0.4%  
63 0.4% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 2% 99.8%  
51 91% 98% Median
52 5% 7%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 1.3% 100%  
48 8% 98.7%  
49 0.3% 90%  
50 84% 90% Median
51 0.7% 6%  
52 5% 6%  
53 0.7% 0.7%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 1.3% 100%  
48 8% 98.7%  
49 0.3% 90%  
50 84% 90% Median
51 0.7% 6%  
52 5% 6%  
53 0.7% 0.7%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.5% 100%  
45 0% 99.5%  
46 0% 99.5%  
47 4% 99.5%  
48 84% 96% Median
49 2% 12%  
50 2% 10%  
51 0.9% 9%  
52 8% 8%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100% Last Result
44 1.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 98.6%  
46 90% 98% Median
47 5% 8%  
48 3% 3%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 2% 99.9%  
45 7% 98%  
46 0.3% 90%  
47 83% 90% Median
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Forum voor Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 2% 99.9%  
45 7% 98%  
46 0.3% 90%  
47 83% 90% Median
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.7%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 1.3% 100%  
38 8% 98.7%  
39 1.0% 91%  
40 4% 90%  
41 83% 86% Median
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 0.7%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 85% 99.4% Median
33 0.2% 15%  
34 5% 15%  
35 2% 10%  
36 7% 8%  
37 0.4% 0.4%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.8% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.2%  
22 87% 98.9% Median
23 0.5% 12%  
24 2% 12%  
25 9% 9%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.5% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 89% 97% Median
23 8% 9%  
24 0% 1.1%  
25 1.1% 1.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 84% 99.7% Median
16 2% 16%  
17 5% 14%  
18 7% 9%  
19 1.4% 1.4%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

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