Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–25 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.9% |
21.6% |
20.0–23.4% |
19.6–23.8% |
19.2–24.3% |
18.5–25.1% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
10.8% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.1% |
9.6–14.8% |
Democraten 66 |
15.0% |
12.0% |
10.8–13.4% |
10.4–13.8% |
10.1–14.1% |
9.6–14.8% |
Socialistische Partij |
6.0% |
6.3% |
5.5–7.4% |
5.2–7.7% |
5.0–8.0% |
4.6–8.6% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
9.5% |
6.0% |
5.2–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.4–8.2% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.8% |
6.0% |
5.2–7.1% |
4.9–7.4% |
4.7–7.7% |
4.4–8.2% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
5.9% |
5.1–7.0% |
4.8–7.3% |
4.6–7.6% |
4.3–8.1% |
GroenLinks |
5.2% |
4.8% |
4.0–5.7% |
3.8–6.0% |
3.6–6.3% |
3.3–6.8% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021 |
2.4% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Volt Europa |
2.4% |
4.0% |
3.3–4.9% |
3.1–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.6% |
3.0–4.5% |
2.8–4.7% |
2.6–4.9% |
2.3–5.4% |
BoerBurgerBeweging |
1.0% |
3.5% |
2.9–4.4% |
2.7–4.6% |
2.5–4.8% |
2.3–5.3% |
DENK |
2.0% |
2.4% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.8–3.4% |
1.6–3.6% |
1.4–4.0% |
Forum voor Democratie |
5.0% |
2.4% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.8–3.4% |
1.6–3.6% |
1.4–4.0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.6–2.7% |
1.4–2.9% |
1.3–3.1% |
1.1–3.5% |
Bij1 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.8% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.5–2.2% |
50Plus |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.3–0.9% |
0.2–1.0% |
0.2–1.1% |
0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
32 |
5% |
97% |
|
33 |
17% |
93% |
|
34 |
63% |
76% |
Last Result, Median |
35 |
3% |
13% |
|
36 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
37 |
9% |
9% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
39 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
17 |
6% |
97% |
Last Result |
18 |
0.5% |
91% |
|
19 |
65% |
91% |
Median |
20 |
4% |
26% |
|
21 |
18% |
22% |
|
22 |
2% |
4% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
2% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
16 |
78% |
97% |
Median |
17 |
0.5% |
19% |
|
18 |
2% |
18% |
|
19 |
13% |
16% |
|
20 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
22 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
23 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
8 |
5% |
99.4% |
|
9 |
72% |
94% |
Last Result, Median |
10 |
10% |
22% |
|
11 |
8% |
12% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
13 |
4% |
4% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
59% |
89% |
Median |
9 |
19% |
29% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
10% |
|
11 |
5% |
10% |
|
12 |
0% |
5% |
|
13 |
5% |
5% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
7 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
8 |
15% |
99.2% |
|
9 |
9% |
85% |
|
10 |
15% |
76% |
|
11 |
61% |
61% |
Median |
12 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
75% |
97% |
Median |
9 |
5% |
22% |
Last Result |
10 |
8% |
17% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
13 |
9% |
9% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
1.3% |
99.9% |
|
6 |
19% |
98.6% |
|
7 |
73% |
79% |
Median |
8 |
5% |
7% |
Last Result |
9 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
5 |
71% |
99.5% |
Median |
6 |
12% |
28% |
|
7 |
5% |
17% |
|
8 |
10% |
12% |
|
9 |
2% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
2% |
100% |
Last Result |
4 |
5% |
98% |
|
5 |
8% |
93% |
|
6 |
74% |
85% |
Median |
7 |
10% |
11% |
|
8 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
4% |
100% |
|
4 |
7% |
96% |
|
5 |
16% |
88% |
Last Result |
6 |
71% |
73% |
Median |
7 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
4 |
14% |
99.6% |
|
5 |
17% |
85% |
|
6 |
66% |
68% |
Median |
7 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
8 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
8% |
100% |
|
3 |
74% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
14% |
18% |
|
5 |
3% |
3% |
|
6 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
20% |
100% |
|
3 |
71% |
80% |
Median |
4 |
6% |
10% |
|
5 |
3% |
4% |
|
6 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
20% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
70% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
9% |
10% |
|
5 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
|
1 |
8% |
89% |
Last Result |
2 |
21% |
81% |
|
3 |
60% |
60% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
33% |
100% |
|
1 |
67% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
87 |
72 |
11% |
72–76 |
72–77 |
72–78 |
68–78 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
86 |
71 |
3% |
68–75 |
68–75 |
68–76 |
67–76 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
67 |
0% |
66–72 |
64–72 |
64–72 |
62–74 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
64 |
0% |
64–69 |
62–69 |
62–70 |
60–70 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
78 |
64 |
0% |
62–68 |
62–69 |
62–69 |
60–69 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
66 |
61 |
0% |
61–66 |
59–67 |
59–67 |
57–67 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
73 |
58 |
0% |
57–63 |
56–65 |
56–65 |
55–65 |
Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
70 |
54 |
0% |
54–59 |
54–61 |
54–64 |
52–66 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
67 |
58 |
0% |
58–62 |
58–62 |
58–62 |
54–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
58 |
50 |
0% |
50–54 |
50–54 |
49–54 |
47–55 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
61 |
45 |
0% |
45–50 |
45–51 |
45–53 |
43–56 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus |
61 |
49 |
0% |
45–51 |
45–52 |
45–52 |
43–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
60 |
48 |
0% |
45–51 |
45–52 |
45–52 |
43–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
46 |
0% |
43–48 |
43–48 |
43–49 |
41–51 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
57 |
45 |
0% |
43–48 |
43–48 |
43–49 |
41–50 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
49 |
42 |
0% |
40–46 |
40–46 |
39–46 |
38–46 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
43 |
42 |
0% |
41–45 |
41–46 |
39–46 |
36–46 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
48 |
32 |
0% |
32–37 |
32–40 |
32–40 |
32–43 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
39 |
24 |
0% |
23–29 |
23–32 |
23–32 |
23–33 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
29 |
22 |
0% |
22–26 |
21–26 |
21–26 |
20–27 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
24 |
16 |
0% |
16–20 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
16–21 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
72 |
65% |
98% |
Median |
73 |
0.6% |
34% |
|
74 |
2% |
33% |
|
75 |
20% |
31% |
|
76 |
1.0% |
11% |
Majority |
77 |
7% |
10% |
|
78 |
2% |
3% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
65 |
0% |
100% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
67 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
68 |
9% |
98.5% |
|
69 |
4% |
89% |
|
70 |
3% |
85% |
|
71 |
60% |
83% |
Median |
72 |
0.5% |
23% |
|
73 |
0.8% |
23% |
|
74 |
11% |
22% |
|
75 |
8% |
11% |
|
76 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
77 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
79 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
62 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
64 |
4% |
98.7% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
66 |
12% |
94% |
|
67 |
62% |
83% |
Median |
68 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
69 |
5% |
20% |
|
70 |
1.4% |
15% |
|
71 |
1.5% |
13% |
|
72 |
10% |
12% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
74 |
2% |
2% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
62 |
4% |
98% |
|
63 |
2% |
94% |
|
64 |
71% |
93% |
Median |
65 |
7% |
22% |
|
66 |
2% |
15% |
|
67 |
0.1% |
14% |
|
68 |
2% |
14% |
|
69 |
9% |
12% |
|
70 |
3% |
3% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
59 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
61 |
0.9% |
99.4% |
|
62 |
11% |
98% |
|
63 |
4% |
88% |
|
64 |
61% |
84% |
Median |
65 |
0.7% |
23% |
|
66 |
0.3% |
22% |
|
67 |
12% |
22% |
|
68 |
5% |
10% |
|
69 |
5% |
5% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
72 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
58 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
59 |
4% |
98% |
|
60 |
4% |
94% |
|
61 |
69% |
90% |
Median |
62 |
0.2% |
21% |
|
63 |
8% |
21% |
|
64 |
2% |
14% |
|
65 |
0.8% |
12% |
|
66 |
2% |
11% |
Last Result |
67 |
9% |
9% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
56 |
9% |
99.3% |
|
57 |
3% |
90% |
|
58 |
60% |
87% |
Median |
59 |
0.3% |
27% |
|
60 |
4% |
27% |
|
61 |
3% |
22% |
|
62 |
9% |
19% |
|
63 |
4% |
10% |
|
64 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
65 |
5% |
5% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
69 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
73 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
52 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
54 |
60% |
98% |
Median |
55 |
12% |
39% |
|
56 |
0.9% |
26% |
|
57 |
10% |
26% |
|
58 |
1.3% |
16% |
|
59 |
5% |
14% |
|
60 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
61 |
5% |
9% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
64 |
2% |
3% |
|
65 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
66 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
1.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
56 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
58 |
62% |
98% |
Median |
59 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
60 |
10% |
35% |
|
61 |
12% |
26% |
|
62 |
11% |
14% |
|
63 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
64 |
2% |
2% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
47 |
1.3% |
99.5% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
49 |
2% |
98% |
|
50 |
63% |
97% |
Median |
51 |
3% |
33% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
30% |
|
53 |
12% |
29% |
|
54 |
17% |
17% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
44 |
0% |
98.5% |
|
45 |
68% |
98.5% |
Median |
46 |
6% |
30% |
|
47 |
3% |
25% |
|
48 |
10% |
22% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
12% |
|
50 |
6% |
11% |
|
51 |
2% |
5% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
53 |
2% |
3% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
56 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
45 |
9% |
98.7% |
|
46 |
4% |
89% |
|
47 |
2% |
85% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
83% |
|
49 |
60% |
82% |
Median |
50 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
51 |
12% |
21% |
|
52 |
9% |
10% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0% |
98.7% |
|
45 |
13% |
98.6% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
86% |
|
47 |
3% |
85% |
|
48 |
60% |
82% |
Median |
49 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
21% |
|
51 |
13% |
21% |
|
52 |
8% |
8% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
98.7% |
|
43 |
10% |
98.5% |
|
44 |
4% |
89% |
|
45 |
3% |
84% |
|
46 |
60% |
82% |
Median |
47 |
2% |
22% |
|
48 |
16% |
20% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
0.8% |
1.4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
99.8% |
|
42 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
43 |
14% |
98% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
45 |
62% |
84% |
Median |
46 |
2% |
22% |
|
47 |
0.8% |
20% |
|
48 |
16% |
20% |
|
49 |
2% |
4% |
|
50 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
39 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
40 |
10% |
97% |
|
41 |
5% |
88% |
|
42 |
59% |
82% |
Median |
43 |
3% |
23% |
|
44 |
5% |
20% |
|
45 |
0.8% |
15% |
|
46 |
14% |
14% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
48 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
49 |
0% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
50 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
1.0% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
38 |
1.3% |
98.9% |
|
39 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
41 |
9% |
97% |
|
42 |
62% |
88% |
Median |
43 |
3% |
26% |
Last Result |
44 |
4% |
23% |
|
45 |
10% |
19% |
|
46 |
10% |
10% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
32 |
59% |
99.7% |
Median |
33 |
12% |
40% |
|
34 |
1.3% |
29% |
|
35 |
2% |
27% |
|
36 |
10% |
25% |
|
37 |
6% |
15% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
40 |
8% |
9% |
|
41 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
43 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
60% |
88% |
Median |
25 |
10% |
29% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
18% |
|
27 |
2% |
18% |
|
28 |
6% |
16% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
30 |
3% |
9% |
|
31 |
0% |
6% |
|
32 |
5% |
6% |
|
33 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
21 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
69% |
93% |
Median |
23 |
2% |
24% |
|
24 |
2% |
21% |
|
25 |
5% |
19% |
|
26 |
13% |
14% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
16 |
61% |
99.5% |
Median |
17 |
11% |
38% |
|
18 |
5% |
27% |
|
19 |
4% |
22% |
|
20 |
9% |
18% |
|
21 |
9% |
9% |
|
22 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1026
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.14%