Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 22–25 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.4% | 19.6–23.8% | 19.2–24.3% | 18.5–25.1% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–4.9% | 2.3–5.4% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.3–5.3% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.4–4.0% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 34 | 33–36 | 32–37 | 29–37 | 28–37 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 19 | 19–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–23 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 16 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–22 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 9 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–13 | 7–13 | 7–13 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 8 | 8–10 | 8–13 | 7–13 | 7–13 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 5 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–8 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 32 | 5% | 97% | |
| 33 | 17% | 93% | |
| 34 | 63% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 35 | 3% | 13% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 37 | 9% | 9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 17 | 6% | 97% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 19 | 65% | 91% | Median |
| 20 | 4% | 26% | |
| 21 | 18% | 22% | |
| 22 | 2% | 4% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 16 | 78% | 97% | Median |
| 17 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 18 | 2% | 18% | |
| 19 | 13% | 16% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 72% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 10 | 10% | 22% | |
| 11 | 8% | 12% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 59% | 89% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 29% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 11 | 5% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0% | 5% | |
| 13 | 5% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 15% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 9% | 85% | |
| 10 | 15% | 76% | |
| 11 | 61% | 61% | Median |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 75% | 97% | Median |
| 9 | 5% | 22% | Last Result |
| 10 | 8% | 17% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 13 | 9% | 9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 19% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 73% | 79% | Median |
| 8 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 71% | 99.5% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 28% | |
| 7 | 5% | 17% | |
| 8 | 10% | 12% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 5% | 98% | |
| 5 | 8% | 93% | |
| 6 | 74% | 85% | Median |
| 7 | 10% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 96% | |
| 5 | 16% | 88% | Last Result |
| 6 | 71% | 73% | Median |
| 7 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 14% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 17% | 85% | |
| 6 | 66% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 74% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 14% | 18% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 20% | 100% | |
| 3 | 71% | 80% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 10% | |
| 5 | 3% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 20% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 70% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 9% | 10% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 8% | 89% | Last Result |
| 2 | 21% | 81% | |
| 3 | 60% | 60% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 87 | 72 | 11% | 72–76 | 72–77 | 72–78 | 68–78 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 86 | 71 | 3% | 68–75 | 68–75 | 68–76 | 67–76 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 67 | 0% | 66–72 | 64–72 | 64–72 | 62–74 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 64 | 0% | 64–69 | 62–69 | 62–70 | 60–70 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 64 | 0% | 62–68 | 62–69 | 62–69 | 60–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 61 | 0% | 61–66 | 59–67 | 59–67 | 57–67 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 58 | 0% | 57–63 | 56–65 | 56–65 | 55–65 |
| Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 70 | 54 | 0% | 54–59 | 54–61 | 54–64 | 52–66 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 67 | 58 | 0% | 58–62 | 58–62 | 58–62 | 54–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 58 | 50 | 0% | 50–54 | 50–54 | 49–54 | 47–55 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 61 | 45 | 0% | 45–50 | 45–51 | 45–53 | 43–56 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 49 | 0% | 45–51 | 45–52 | 45–52 | 43–53 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 45–52 | 45–52 | 43–53 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 46 | 0% | 43–48 | 43–48 | 43–49 | 41–51 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 45 | 0% | 43–48 | 43–48 | 43–49 | 41–50 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 42 | 0% | 40–46 | 40–46 | 39–46 | 38–46 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 42 | 0% | 41–45 | 41–46 | 39–46 | 36–46 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 48 | 32 | 0% | 32–37 | 32–40 | 32–40 | 32–43 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 24 | 0% | 23–29 | 23–32 | 23–32 | 23–33 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie | 29 | 22 | 0% | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid | 24 | 16 | 0% | 16–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 16–21 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 72 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 73 | 0.6% | 34% | |
| 74 | 2% | 33% | |
| 75 | 20% | 31% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 11% | Majority |
| 77 | 7% | 10% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 9% | 98.5% | |
| 69 | 4% | 89% | |
| 70 | 3% | 85% | |
| 71 | 60% | 83% | Median |
| 72 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 74 | 11% | 22% | |
| 75 | 8% | 11% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 64 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 66 | 12% | 94% | |
| 67 | 62% | 83% | Median |
| 68 | 0.8% | 21% | |
| 69 | 5% | 20% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 71 | 1.5% | 13% | |
| 72 | 10% | 12% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 2% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 94% | |
| 64 | 71% | 93% | Median |
| 65 | 7% | 22% | |
| 66 | 2% | 15% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 68 | 2% | 14% | |
| 69 | 9% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 11% | 98% | |
| 63 | 4% | 88% | |
| 64 | 61% | 84% | Median |
| 65 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 67 | 12% | 22% | |
| 68 | 5% | 10% | |
| 69 | 5% | 5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 4% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 94% | |
| 61 | 69% | 90% | Median |
| 62 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 63 | 8% | 21% | |
| 64 | 2% | 14% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 66 | 2% | 11% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 9% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 9% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 90% | |
| 58 | 60% | 87% | Median |
| 59 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 60 | 4% | 27% | |
| 61 | 3% | 22% | |
| 62 | 9% | 19% | |
| 63 | 4% | 10% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 65 | 5% | 5% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Socialistische Partij – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 54 | 60% | 98% | Median |
| 55 | 12% | 39% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 26% | |
| 57 | 10% | 26% | |
| 58 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 59 | 5% | 14% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 61 | 5% | 9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 66 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 98.8% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 58 | 62% | 98% | Median |
| 59 | 1.0% | 36% | |
| 60 | 10% | 35% | |
| 61 | 12% | 26% | |
| 62 | 11% | 14% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 64 | 2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 47 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 51 | 3% | 33% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 30% | |
| 53 | 12% | 29% | |
| 54 | 17% | 17% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 98.5% | |
| 45 | 68% | 98.5% | Median |
| 46 | 6% | 30% | |
| 47 | 3% | 25% | |
| 48 | 10% | 22% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 50 | 6% | 11% | |
| 51 | 2% | 5% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 2% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 9% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 4% | 89% | |
| 47 | 2% | 85% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 49 | 60% | 82% | Median |
| 50 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 51 | 12% | 21% | |
| 52 | 9% | 10% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 45 | 13% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 86% | |
| 47 | 3% | 85% | |
| 48 | 60% | 82% | Median |
| 49 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 51 | 13% | 21% | |
| 52 | 8% | 8% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 43 | 10% | 98.5% | |
| 44 | 4% | 89% | |
| 45 | 3% | 84% | |
| 46 | 60% | 82% | Median |
| 47 | 2% | 22% | |
| 48 | 16% | 20% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 98.6% | |
| 43 | 14% | 98% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 45 | 62% | 84% | Median |
| 46 | 2% | 22% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 20% | |
| 48 | 16% | 20% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 10% | 97% | |
| 41 | 5% | 88% | |
| 42 | 59% | 82% | Median |
| 43 | 3% | 23% | |
| 44 | 5% | 20% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 46 | 14% | 14% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 41 | 9% | 97% | |
| 42 | 62% | 88% | Median |
| 43 | 3% | 26% | Last Result |
| 44 | 4% | 23% | |
| 45 | 10% | 19% | |
| 46 | 10% | 10% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 32 | 59% | 99.7% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 40% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 35 | 2% | 27% | |
| 36 | 10% | 25% | |
| 37 | 6% | 15% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 40 | 8% | 9% | |
| 41 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 60% | 88% | Median |
| 25 | 10% | 29% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 18% | |
| 27 | 2% | 18% | |
| 28 | 6% | 16% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 30 | 3% | 9% | |
| 31 | 0% | 6% | |
| 32 | 5% | 6% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 69% | 93% | Median |
| 23 | 2% | 24% | |
| 24 | 2% | 21% | |
| 25 | 5% | 19% | |
| 26 | 13% | 14% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 16 | 61% | 99.5% | Median |
| 17 | 11% | 38% | |
| 18 | 5% | 27% | |
| 19 | 4% | 22% | |
| 20 | 9% | 18% | |
| 21 | 9% | 9% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 22–25 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1026
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.14%