Opinion Poll by Ipsos for EenVandaag, 17–20 December 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 21.9% | 19.6% | 18.1–21.3% | 17.7–21.8% | 17.3–22.2% | 16.6–23.0% |
| Democraten 66 | 15.0% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.6% | 11.5–15.0% | 11.2–15.3% | 10.6–16.1% |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.7% | 9.2–14.3% |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 9.5% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.6% | 4.5–6.9% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 2.4% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| GroenLinks | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Socialistische Partij | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Forum voor Democratie | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.7% |
| ChristenUnie | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.6% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Volt Europa | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 2.0–4.9% |
| DENK | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Bij1 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| 50Plus | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie | 34 | 30 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 26–34 |
| Democraten 66 | 24 | 18 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–23 |
| Partij voor de Vrijheid | 17 | 18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 |
| Partij van de Arbeid | 9 | 11 | 11–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–15 |
| Partij voor de Dieren | 6 | 11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 6–12 |
| Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 15 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–11 |
| Juiste Antwoord 2021 | 3 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–11 |
| GroenLinks | 8 | 9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Socialistische Partij | 9 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Forum voor Democratie | 8 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| BoerBurgerBeweging | 1 | 6 | 5–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| ChristenUnie | 5 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Volt Europa | 3 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| DENK | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–6 |
| Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 3 | 3 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Bij1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| 50Plus | 1 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 19% | 97% | |
| 30 | 48% | 79% | Median |
| 31 | 5% | 31% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 33 | 9% | 26% | |
| 34 | 17% | 17% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 46% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 19 | 1.3% | 33% | |
| 20 | 19% | 32% | |
| 21 | 2% | 12% | |
| 22 | 10% | 10% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 16 | 9% | 97% | |
| 17 | 18% | 89% | Last Result |
| 18 | 65% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 20 | 4% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 10 | 2% | 94% | |
| 11 | 64% | 93% | Median |
| 12 | 27% | 28% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 7 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 26% | 98% | |
| 9 | 18% | 72% | |
| 10 | 2% | 54% | |
| 11 | 50% | 52% | Median |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 17% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 7 | 47% | 82% | Median |
| 8 | 5% | 35% | |
| 9 | 28% | 30% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Juiste Antwoord 2021
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Juiste Antwoord 2021 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 18% | 100% | |
| 7 | 48% | 82% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 34% | |
| 9 | 30% | 31% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 19% | 91% | |
| 8 | 5% | 72% | Last Result |
| 9 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 18% | 89% | |
| 8 | 52% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 18% | 19% | Last Result |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 18% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 32% | 82% | Median |
| 6 | 47% | 50% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
BoerBurgerBeweging
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the BoerBurgerBeweging page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 5 | 22% | 90% | |
| 6 | 21% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 47% | 47% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 48% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 26% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 19% | 25% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 4 | 14% | 98% | |
| 5 | 47% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 36% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 84% | 96% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 10% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 67% | 94% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 9% | 27% | |
| 5 | 18% | 18% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bij1
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bij1 page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 50% | 98.8% | Last Result, Median |
| 2 | 48% | 49% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 48% | 48% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 87 | 73 | 13% | 69–78 | 69–81 | 69–81 | 69–81 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 86 | 70 | 1.2% | 67–75 | 67–75 | 67–75 | 67–76 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 78 | 63 | 0% | 58–66 | 58–69 | 58–69 | 58–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 77 | 64 | 0% | 64–66 | 64–67 | 61–67 | 59–69 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid | 67 | 58 | 0% | 58–63 | 58–67 | 58–67 | 55–67 |
| Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie | 70 | 56 | 0% | 56–62 | 56–62 | 56–65 | 55–66 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 74 | 61 | 0% | 59–63 | 59–64 | 59–64 | 56–67 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 73 | 57 | 0% | 54–61 | 54–64 | 54–64 | 54–64 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 66 | 55 | 0% | 55–58 | 55–58 | 53–59 | 51–60 |
| Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie | 61 | 49 | 0% | 48–54 | 48–55 | 48–56 | 48–58 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 58 | 48 | 0% | 48–51 | 48–54 | 47–54 | 43–54 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus | 61 | 47 | 0% | 46–49 | 46–52 | 46–52 | 44–53 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij | 60 | 46 | 0% | 46–49 | 46–51 | 45–51 | 43–52 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus | 58 | 43 | 0% | 43–47 | 43–48 | 43–48 | 40–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie | 57 | 43 | 0% | 42–47 | 42–47 | 42–47 | 39–49 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid | 43 | 41 | 0% | 41–45 | 40–45 | 40–45 | 35–45 |
| Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 48 | 35 | 0% | 34–41 | 34–43 | 34–43 | 34–45 |
| Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 49 | 38 | 0% | 37–39 | 37–42 | 37–42 | 34–42 |
| Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 39 | 24 | 0% | 23–30 | 23–31 | 23–31 | 23–32 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie | 29 | 22 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–28 | 21–28 |
| Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl | 24 | 18 | 0% | 16–21 | 16–21 | 16–21 | 15–24 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 69 | 46% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 54% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 53% | Median |
| 72 | 0.3% | 53% | |
| 73 | 5% | 52% | |
| 74 | 17% | 48% | |
| 75 | 17% | 30% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 13% | Majority |
| 77 | 2% | 13% | |
| 78 | 2% | 11% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 81 | 8% | 8% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 46% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 54% | |
| 69 | 0.9% | 53% | Median |
| 70 | 18% | 52% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 72 | 21% | 34% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 74 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 75 | 10% | 11% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 46% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 54% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 54% | Median |
| 61 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 53% | |
| 63 | 36% | 52% | |
| 64 | 4% | 16% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 66 | 2% | 12% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 69 | 8% | 9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 97% | Median |
| 64 | 64% | 96% | |
| 65 | 18% | 32% | |
| 66 | 5% | 15% | |
| 67 | 9% | 10% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 50% | 99.0% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 49% | Median |
| 60 | 2% | 49% | |
| 61 | 18% | 47% | |
| 62 | 2% | 29% | |
| 63 | 18% | 27% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 66 | 0% | 8% | |
| 67 | 8% | 8% | Last Result |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 56 | 64% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 58 | 4% | 35% | Median |
| 59 | 0.3% | 31% | |
| 60 | 8% | 31% | |
| 61 | 2% | 23% | |
| 62 | 18% | 21% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 65 | 2% | 3% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 18% | 98% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 80% | Median |
| 61 | 47% | 79% | |
| 62 | 18% | 32% | |
| 63 | 9% | 15% | |
| 64 | 4% | 5% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 46% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 54% | Median |
| 56 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 57 | 21% | 52% | |
| 58 | 18% | 31% | |
| 59 | 3% | 13% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 64 | 8% | 8% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 64% | 97% | Median |
| 56 | 1.4% | 32% | |
| 57 | 18% | 31% | |
| 58 | 9% | 13% | |
| 59 | 3% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 46% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 17% | 53% | |
| 50 | 4% | 36% | Median |
| 51 | 0.4% | 32% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 53 | 17% | 30% | |
| 54 | 8% | 13% | |
| 55 | 2% | 5% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 48 | 50% | 97% | Median |
| 49 | 1.2% | 48% | |
| 50 | 35% | 47% | |
| 51 | 2% | 11% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 53 | 0% | 9% | |
| 54 | 9% | 9% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 98.8% | Median |
| 46 | 46% | 98% | |
| 47 | 6% | 51% | |
| 48 | 35% | 46% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 52 | 8% | 9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 99.5% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 98% | Median |
| 46 | 50% | 97% | |
| 47 | 36% | 47% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 51 | 8% | 9% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 99.3% | Median |
| 43 | 64% | 98% | |
| 44 | 2% | 34% | |
| 45 | 21% | 32% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 48 | 9% | 9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 42 | 18% | 98.7% | Median |
| 43 | 47% | 81% | |
| 44 | 23% | 34% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 47 | 9% | 10% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 40 | 5% | 98% | |
| 41 | 65% | 93% | Median |
| 42 | 2% | 28% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 26% | Last Result |
| 44 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 45 | 25% | 25% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 17% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 50% | 82% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 33% | Median |
| 37 | 0.5% | 32% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 32% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 41 | 20% | 30% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 43 | 9% | 10% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 37 | 47% | 98% | Median |
| 38 | 17% | 51% | |
| 39 | 24% | 34% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 42 | 9% | 9% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 17% | 100% | |
| 24 | 46% | 83% | |
| 25 | 0% | 37% | Median |
| 26 | 4% | 37% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 33% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 32% | |
| 29 | 19% | 31% | |
| 30 | 3% | 12% | |
| 31 | 9% | 10% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 63% | 98.6% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 35% | Median |
| 24 | 5% | 34% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 30% | |
| 26 | 25% | 29% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 3% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Partij van de Arbeid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 16 | 18% | 99.5% | |
| 17 | 4% | 82% | |
| 18 | 47% | 78% | Median |
| 19 | 1.2% | 31% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 29% | |
| 21 | 27% | 29% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): EenVandaag
- Fieldwork period: 17–20 December 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1014
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.62%