Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26 March 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.4–22.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.9–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 33 33 33–34 31–34
Democraten 66 19 21 19–22 19–22 19–22 19–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–18 17–20 17–21 17–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 20 19–20 19–20 19–20 18–20
GroenLinks 14 14 14–17 14–17 12–17 12–17
Socialistische Partij 14 13 13–14 13–14 13–14 13–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
ChristenUnie 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–5
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–6
50Plus 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 4 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Forum voor Democratie 2 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.7%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 94% 98.8% Last Result, Median
34 5% 5%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 10% 99.8% Last Result
20 20% 90%  
21 54% 70% Median
22 16% 16%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 16% 100%  
18 79% 84% Median
19 0.3% 6%  
20 0.4% 5% Last Result
21 5% 5%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.8%  
19 16% 99.1% Last Result
20 83% 83% Median
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 4% 100%  
13 0.6% 96%  
14 75% 95% Last Result, Median
15 0.3% 21%  
16 0.1% 20%  
17 20% 20%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 58% 99.9% Median
14 41% 42% Last Result
15 0.4% 0.6%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 20% 99.8%  
9 70% 79% Last Result, Median
10 10% 10%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 83% 100% Median
5 16% 17% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 79% 99.6% Last Result, Median
6 21% 21%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 16% 100%  
4 79% 84% Last Result, Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 10% 100%  
3 90% 90% Last Result, Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 21% 100%  
3 26% 79% Last Result
4 54% 54% Median
5 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 94% 100% Last Result, Median
3 5% 6%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 90–94 89–94 89–94 89–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 85–88 85–88 85–88 84–88
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 81 100% 81–83 80–83 78–83 78–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 79% 74–76 74–77 74–80 74–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 78 99.3% 77–79 76–79 76–79 75–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 5% 71–73 71–74 71–78 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid 72 71 0% 69–71 69–71 69–75 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 74 0.1% 73–74 72–74 72–74 69–74
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 67–69 66–69 65–69 65–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 61–62 61–63 61–64 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 61–64 61–64 61–64 60–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 60–62 60–62 60–63 59–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 59 0% 57–59 57–60 57–61 57–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 57–58 57–58 57–59 55–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 54–55 54–55 54–57 53–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 52–53 52–53 52–54 50–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 50 0% 48–50 48–50 48–50 47–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 41–42 41–43 41–44 40–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 41 0% 39–41 39–41 39–41 38–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–33 32–34 32–34 31–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 28–29 28–30 28–30 27–30

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.4% 99.9%  
89 5% 99.5%  
90 5% 95% Last Result
91 0.5% 90%  
92 53% 89% Median
93 16% 36%  
94 20% 20%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.2% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 20% 99.2% Last Result
86 5% 79%  
87 58% 73% Median
88 15% 16%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 5% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 95%  
80 0.3% 95% Last Result
81 59% 95% Median
82 0.4% 36%  
83 36% 36%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 16% 99.8%  
75 5% 84%  
76 74% 79% Median, Majority
77 0.5% 5% Last Result
78 0.2% 5%  
79 0.1% 4%  
80 4% 4%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 6% 99.3% Last Result, Majority
77 25% 94%  
78 53% 69% Median
79 15% 16%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 16% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 84%  
73 79% 84% Median
74 0.6% 5% Last Result
75 0.1% 5%  
76 0.1% 5% Majority
77 0.2% 4%  
78 4% 4%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 16% 99.6%  
70 0.1% 84%  
71 79% 84% Median
72 0.4% 5% Last Result
73 0.1% 5%  
74 0.1% 4%  
75 4% 4%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.1% 99.5%  
71 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
72 6% 99.1%  
73 25% 94%  
74 69% 69% Median
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 5% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 95% Last Result
67 6% 95%  
68 54% 89% Median
69 35% 36%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.5% 99.8%  
59 0.2% 99.4%  
60 0.4% 99.1%  
61 36% 98.7% Last Result
62 53% 63% Median
63 5% 10%  
64 4% 4%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 0.4% 99.6%  
61 20% 99.2% Last Result
62 5% 79%  
63 58% 74% Median
64 16% 16%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 16% 99.4%  
61 0.4% 84% Last Result
62 78% 83% Median
63 5% 5%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 16% 99.5%  
58 0.4% 84% Last Result
59 74% 83% Median
60 5% 10%  
61 4% 4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 21% 98.9% Last Result
58 73% 78% Median
59 5% 5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 16% 98.9% Last Result
55 79% 83% Median
56 0.2% 5%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 0.2% 99.0%  
52 16% 98.8% Last Result
53 79% 83% Median
54 4% 4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
48 21% 99.2%  
49 10% 78%  
50 69% 69% Median
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 20% 99.2%  
42 69% 79% Last Result, Median
43 6% 10%  
44 4% 4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.8% Last Result
39 10% 99.2%  
40 20% 89%  
41 69% 69% Median
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.4% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.6%  
32 20% 99.3%  
33 69% 79% Last Result, Median
34 10% 10%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.6%  
28 36% 99.0% Last Result
29 54% 63% Median
30 9% 9%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations