Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 26 March 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.3% |
21.3% |
20.4–22.3% |
20.1–22.6% |
19.9–22.8% |
19.4–23.3% |
Democraten 66 |
12.2% |
13.3% |
12.6–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.2–14.6% |
11.8–15.0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
13.1% |
12.7% |
11.9–13.5% |
11.7–13.7% |
11.5–13.9% |
11.2–14.3% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
12.4% |
12.7% |
11.9–13.5% |
11.7–13.7% |
11.5–13.9% |
11.2–14.3% |
GroenLinks |
9.1% |
9.3% |
8.7–10.1% |
8.5–10.3% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.8% |
Socialistische Partij |
9.1% |
9.3% |
8.7–10.1% |
8.5–10.3% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.8% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
6.0% |
5.5–6.6% |
5.3–6.8% |
5.2–6.9% |
5.0–7.2% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.2% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
50Plus |
3.1% |
2.7% |
2.3–3.1% |
2.2–3.2% |
2.1–3.3% |
2.0–3.5% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
DENK |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Forum voor Democratie |
1.8% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
32 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
33 |
94% |
98.8% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
5% |
5% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
10% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
20 |
20% |
90% |
|
21 |
54% |
70% |
Median |
22 |
16% |
16% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
16% |
100% |
|
18 |
79% |
84% |
Median |
19 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
20 |
0.4% |
5% |
Last Result |
21 |
5% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
19 |
16% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
20 |
83% |
83% |
Median |
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
4% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
14 |
75% |
95% |
Last Result, Median |
15 |
0.3% |
21% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
20% |
|
17 |
20% |
20% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
58% |
99.9% |
Median |
14 |
41% |
42% |
Last Result |
15 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
8 |
20% |
99.8% |
|
9 |
70% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
10 |
10% |
10% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
83% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
16% |
17% |
Last Result |
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
5 |
79% |
99.6% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
21% |
21% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
16% |
100% |
|
4 |
79% |
84% |
Last Result, Median |
5 |
5% |
5% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
10% |
100% |
|
3 |
90% |
90% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
21% |
100% |
|
3 |
26% |
79% |
Last Result |
4 |
54% |
54% |
Median |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
94% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
5% |
6% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
90 |
92 |
100% |
90–94 |
89–94 |
89–94 |
89–94 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
85 |
87 |
100% |
85–88 |
85–88 |
85–88 |
84–88 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
80 |
81 |
100% |
81–83 |
80–83 |
78–83 |
78–83 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
76 |
79% |
74–76 |
74–77 |
74–80 |
74–80 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
76 |
78 |
99.3% |
77–79 |
76–79 |
76–79 |
75–79 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
73 |
5% |
71–73 |
71–74 |
71–78 |
71–78 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid |
72 |
71 |
0% |
69–71 |
69–71 |
69–75 |
69–75 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
71 |
74 |
0.1% |
73–74 |
72–74 |
72–74 |
69–74 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
66 |
68 |
0% |
67–69 |
66–69 |
65–69 |
65–69 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
62 |
0% |
61–62 |
61–63 |
61–64 |
58–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
63 |
0% |
61–64 |
61–64 |
61–64 |
60–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
61 |
62 |
0% |
60–62 |
60–62 |
60–63 |
59–63 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie |
58 |
59 |
0% |
57–59 |
57–60 |
57–61 |
57–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
57 |
58 |
0% |
57–58 |
57–58 |
57–59 |
55–59 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
54 |
55 |
0% |
54–55 |
54–55 |
54–57 |
53–57 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
52 |
53 |
0% |
52–53 |
52–53 |
52–54 |
50–54 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
47 |
50 |
0% |
48–50 |
48–50 |
48–50 |
47–50 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
42 |
42 |
0% |
41–42 |
41–43 |
41–44 |
40–44 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
38 |
41 |
0% |
39–41 |
39–41 |
39–41 |
38–41 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
33 |
33 |
0% |
32–33 |
32–34 |
32–34 |
31–34 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
28 |
29 |
0% |
28–29 |
28–30 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
87 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
88 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
89 |
5% |
99.5% |
|
90 |
5% |
95% |
Last Result |
91 |
0.5% |
90% |
|
92 |
53% |
89% |
Median |
93 |
16% |
36% |
|
94 |
20% |
20% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
84 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
85 |
20% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
86 |
5% |
79% |
|
87 |
58% |
73% |
Median |
88 |
15% |
16% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
78 |
5% |
99.9% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
80 |
0.3% |
95% |
Last Result |
81 |
59% |
95% |
Median |
82 |
0.4% |
36% |
|
83 |
36% |
36% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
16% |
99.8% |
|
75 |
5% |
84% |
|
76 |
74% |
79% |
Median, Majority |
77 |
0.5% |
5% |
Last Result |
78 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
80 |
4% |
4% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
73 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
75 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
76 |
6% |
99.3% |
Last Result, Majority |
77 |
25% |
94% |
|
78 |
53% |
69% |
Median |
79 |
15% |
16% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
71 |
16% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0.5% |
84% |
|
73 |
79% |
84% |
Median |
74 |
0.6% |
5% |
Last Result |
75 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
5% |
Majority |
77 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
78 |
4% |
4% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij voor de Vrijheid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
69 |
16% |
99.6% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
71 |
79% |
84% |
Median |
72 |
0.4% |
5% |
Last Result |
73 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
75 |
4% |
4% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
71 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
72 |
6% |
99.1% |
|
73 |
25% |
94% |
|
74 |
69% |
69% |
Median |
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
77 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
5% |
99.8% |
|
66 |
0.4% |
95% |
Last Result |
67 |
6% |
95% |
|
68 |
54% |
89% |
Median |
69 |
35% |
36% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
61 |
36% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
62 |
53% |
63% |
Median |
63 |
5% |
10% |
|
64 |
4% |
4% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
60 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
61 |
20% |
99.2% |
Last Result |
62 |
5% |
79% |
|
63 |
58% |
74% |
Median |
64 |
16% |
16% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
60 |
16% |
99.4% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
84% |
Last Result |
62 |
78% |
83% |
Median |
63 |
5% |
5% |
|
64 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
16% |
99.5% |
|
58 |
0.4% |
84% |
Last Result |
59 |
74% |
83% |
Median |
60 |
5% |
10% |
|
61 |
4% |
4% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
57 |
21% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
58 |
73% |
78% |
Median |
59 |
5% |
5% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.6% |
99.6% |
|
54 |
16% |
98.9% |
Last Result |
55 |
79% |
83% |
Median |
56 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
57 |
4% |
4% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
51 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
52 |
16% |
98.8% |
Last Result |
53 |
79% |
83% |
Median |
54 |
4% |
4% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
Last Result |
48 |
21% |
99.2% |
|
49 |
10% |
78% |
|
50 |
69% |
69% |
Median |
51 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
41 |
20% |
99.2% |
|
42 |
69% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
43 |
6% |
10% |
|
44 |
4% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
39 |
10% |
99.2% |
|
40 |
20% |
89% |
|
41 |
69% |
69% |
Median |
42 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
20% |
99.3% |
|
33 |
69% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
10% |
10% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.5% |
99.6% |
|
28 |
36% |
99.0% |
Last Result |
29 |
54% |
63% |
Median |
30 |
9% |
9% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26 March 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.55%