Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 6 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
50Plus 3.1% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 31–38 31–40 30–40 29–40
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 17–21 17–22 16–24 16–24
Democraten 66 19 20 18–21 17–22 17–24 16–24
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 19 17–20 16–21 14–21 14–22
GroenLinks 14 15 12–15 12–17 12–18 10–18
Socialistische Partij 14 10 10–14 10–14 9–14 8–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 4–7 4–7 3–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 2–4 2–4 2–6 2–6
DENK 3 3 2–4 2–4 1–5 1–5
Forum voor Democratie 2 2 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 1.1% 98%  
31 7% 97%  
32 3% 90%  
33 57% 87% Last Result, Median
34 7% 31%  
35 7% 24%  
36 0.5% 16%  
37 5% 16%  
38 4% 11%  
39 0.2% 7%  
40 7% 7%  
41 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 3% 99.9%  
17 7% 97%  
18 5% 90%  
19 25% 85%  
20 42% 59% Last Result, Median
21 8% 17%  
22 5% 9%  
23 1.5% 4%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.7% 100%  
17 6% 99.2%  
18 5% 93%  
19 12% 88% Last Result
20 61% 76% Median
21 8% 15%  
22 3% 7%  
23 1.3% 4%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 3% 100%  
15 1.0% 97%  
16 1.4% 96%  
17 12% 94%  
18 17% 82%  
19 17% 65% Last Result, Median
20 42% 48%  
21 5% 6%  
22 1.0% 1.3%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 1.0% 100%  
11 1.0% 99.0%  
12 22% 98%  
13 9% 76%  
14 9% 66% Last Result
15 47% 57% Median
16 5% 10%  
17 2% 5%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.2% 100%  
9 1.5% 98.8%  
10 48% 97% Median
11 8% 49%  
12 16% 41%  
13 11% 25%  
14 14% 14% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 11% 99.4%  
7 59% 88% Median
8 24% 29%  
9 3% 5% Last Result
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.1% 100%  
4 6% 98.9%  
5 38% 93% Last Result
6 47% 55% Median
7 7% 9%  
8 1.1% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 16% 98%  
5 55% 83% Last Result, Median
6 13% 27%  
7 13% 14%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.0% 100%  
3 16% 99.0%  
4 34% 83% Last Result, Median
5 45% 49%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 20% 99.9%  
3 23% 79% Last Result
4 52% 56% Median
5 2% 5%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 44% 96%  
3 23% 52% Last Result, Median
4 26% 29%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 65% 99.8% Last Result, Median
3 17% 35%  
4 14% 18%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 94 100% 89–95 88–95 87–95 85–96
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 100% 82–88 80–90 79–90 78–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 79 90% 76–80 73–83 73–83 71–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie 77 79 79% 75–82 74–82 73–83 72–84
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 78 77% 73–79 71–80 70–81 69–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 22% 73–79 71–79 71–80 69–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 73 8% 70–75 68–78 68–78 66–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 73 12% 69–77 67–77 66–77 66–77
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 62–68 60–69 58–70 58–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie 61 64 0% 60–66 59–67 58–67 57–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 59–65 57–67 57–67 56–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 57–64 56–65 56–65 53–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 60 0% 57–63 57–63 55–64 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie 57 59 0% 56–63 55–63 54–63 52–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 54–59 52–60 51–60 49–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 53 0% 50–56 49–58 48–58 47–58
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 47 0% 43–47 40–48 39–48 39–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 39–45 39–47 37–47 36–48
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 39 0% 35–40 34–41 33–41 32–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 28–33 28–33 26–34 25–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 24–27 23–28 21–28 20–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.3% 100%  
85 1.5% 99.7%  
86 0.2% 98%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 15% 93%  
90 2% 77% Last Result
91 5% 75%  
92 10% 70%  
93 9% 60% Median
94 41% 51%  
95 10% 10%  
96 0.5% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.9%  
78 1.4% 99.9%  
79 3% 98.5%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 2% 95%  
82 4% 93%  
83 3% 89%  
84 6% 86%  
85 20% 80% Last Result, Median
86 44% 59%  
87 2% 15%  
88 5% 13%  
89 1.1% 8%  
90 7% 7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 1.4% 99.4%  
73 5% 98%  
74 1.2% 93%  
75 2% 92%  
76 5% 90% Last Result, Majority
77 24% 85%  
78 5% 61% Median
79 41% 57%  
80 6% 15%  
81 2% 9%  
82 0.4% 7%  
83 7% 7%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 2% 99.3%  
74 5% 97%  
75 13% 92%  
76 4% 79% Majority
77 3% 75% Last Result
78 5% 72% Median
79 43% 66%  
80 7% 23%  
81 3% 16%  
82 10% 13%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 1.1% 99.8%  
70 2% 98.7%  
71 3% 96%  
72 0.3% 93%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 89%  
75 9% 86%  
76 3% 77% Majority
77 7% 73% Median
78 56% 66%  
79 3% 11%  
80 3% 8% Last Result
81 4% 4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.5%  
70 1.5% 99.3%  
71 5% 98%  
72 2% 93%  
73 18% 91%  
74 6% 73% Last Result, Median
75 45% 67%  
76 3% 22% Majority
77 3% 19%  
78 3% 16%  
79 10% 13%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.6% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 1.5% 99.4%  
68 4% 98%  
69 3% 94%  
70 9% 92%  
71 5% 83% Last Result
72 17% 77% Median
73 42% 60%  
74 4% 18%  
75 6% 14%  
76 0.5% 8% Majority
77 0.4% 7%  
78 7% 7%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 4% 99.8%  
67 2% 96%  
68 0.9% 93%  
69 4% 93%  
70 3% 88%  
71 21% 86%  
72 6% 65% Last Result, Median
73 41% 59%  
74 3% 18%  
75 3% 15%  
76 2% 12% Majority
77 10% 10%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 3% 99.7%  
59 0.2% 97%  
60 5% 97%  
61 1.4% 92%  
62 9% 91%  
63 1.3% 82%  
64 15% 80%  
65 9% 65%  
66 4% 56% Last Result
67 6% 53% Median
68 39% 47%  
69 5% 7%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 1.5% 99.6%  
58 0.7% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 17% 94%  
61 2% 77% Last Result
62 7% 75% Median
63 5% 67%  
64 45% 62%  
65 2% 17%  
66 9% 15%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.8% 1.4%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 1.5% 99.6%  
57 5% 98%  
58 2% 93%  
59 4% 91%  
60 44% 87% Median
61 17% 42% Last Result
62 7% 25%  
63 4% 18%  
64 3% 14%  
65 2% 10%  
66 0.3% 8%  
67 8% 8%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.4%  
55 0.6% 98.6%  
56 5% 98%  
57 9% 93%  
58 6% 84%  
59 2% 78% Median
60 55% 76%  
61 5% 21% Last Result
62 2% 15%  
63 2% 14%  
64 4% 12%  
65 7% 8%  
66 1.0% 1.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 1.2% 99.2%  
55 2% 98%  
56 0.8% 96%  
57 7% 95%  
58 17% 88% Last Result, Median
59 5% 72%  
60 45% 66%  
61 8% 21%  
62 2% 13%  
63 8% 11%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.1% 0.6%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.8% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.6%  
55 2% 96%  
56 15% 94%  
57 6% 79% Last Result
58 8% 73% Median
59 43% 65%  
60 4% 21%  
61 3% 18%  
62 0.8% 15%  
63 13% 14%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 1.2% 99.4%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 4% 97%  
53 2% 93%  
54 23% 91% Last Result, Median
55 42% 68%  
56 5% 26%  
57 7% 21%  
58 3% 14%  
59 1.5% 11%  
60 7% 9%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 2% 90%  
51 10% 88%  
52 15% 78% Last Result, Median
53 43% 63%  
54 6% 20%  
55 2% 14%  
56 3% 12%  
57 2% 9%  
58 7% 7%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 3% 100%  
40 4% 97%  
41 0.7% 93%  
42 1.2% 93%  
43 2% 91%  
44 5% 89%  
45 10% 84%  
46 5% 74% Median
47 63% 69% Last Result
48 3% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 1.4% 99.7%  
37 2% 98%  
38 1.0% 96%  
39 7% 95%  
40 45% 88% Median
41 19% 43%  
42 4% 24% Last Result
43 4% 20%  
44 3% 16%  
45 5% 13%  
46 0.2% 8%  
47 7% 8%  
48 0.9% 0.9%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.4%  
34 5% 97%  
35 2% 91%  
36 2% 90%  
37 5% 88%  
38 13% 83% Last Result
39 21% 70% Median
40 44% 49%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.1% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.9% 100%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 0.7% 97%  
28 8% 96%  
29 1.5% 89%  
30 13% 87%  
31 2% 74%  
32 21% 72% Median
33 47% 51% Last Result
34 2% 4%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 2% 100%  
21 0.6% 98%  
22 0.5% 97%  
23 6% 97%  
24 5% 91%  
25 15% 86%  
26 8% 71% Median
27 54% 62%  
28 6% 8% Last Result
29 0.5% 2%  
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations