Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 20 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
50Plus 3.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 39 34–39 33–39 32–39 32–43
Democraten 66 19 16 16–21 16–22 16–23 16–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 18–20 17–21 16–22 15–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 18 16–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
GroenLinks 14 16 14–16 14–17 13–19 13–21
Socialistische Partij 14 8 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–11
Partij van de Arbeid 9 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 6–7 5–7 5–8 4–9
Forum voor Democratie 2 6 4–6 4–6 4–7 3–8
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–6 3–6 3–7 3–7
50Plus 4 3 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 5 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
DENK 3 2 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 3% 99.8%  
33 2% 97% Last Result
34 6% 95%  
35 4% 89%  
36 10% 85%  
37 4% 74%  
38 4% 70%  
39 65% 67% Median
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.5% 2%  
42 0.4% 1.1%  
43 0.5% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 60% 99.6% Median
17 4% 40%  
18 5% 36%  
19 8% 31% Last Result
20 13% 24%  
21 4% 11%  
22 3% 7%  
23 4% 4%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 7% 97%  
18 9% 91%  
19 11% 82%  
20 64% 71% Last Result, Median
21 3% 7%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 0.7%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 0.8% 99.8%  
14 6% 98.9%  
15 3% 93%  
16 6% 90%  
17 8% 84%  
18 71% 77% Median
19 4% 6% Last Result
20 1.2% 1.5%  
21 0.1% 0.3%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 5% 99.9%  
14 8% 95% Last Result
15 8% 87%  
16 70% 79% Median
17 5% 9%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.0% 3%  
20 0.2% 2%  
21 1.3% 1.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 3% 98%  
8 67% 95% Median
9 9% 27%  
10 10% 18%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9%  
5 70% 94% Median
6 13% 24%  
7 9% 11%  
8 0.9% 1.4%  
9 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9%  
5 3% 98% Last Result
6 73% 95% Median
7 16% 21%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.7% 1.0%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 1.0% 100%  
4 11% 99.0%  
5 9% 88%  
6 76% 80% Median
7 3% 4%  
8 0.9% 0.9%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 12% 93%  
5 69% 81% Last Result, Median
6 8% 12%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 79% 97% Median
4 13% 18% Last Result
5 4% 5%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 7% 99.9%  
3 18% 93% Last Result
4 11% 74%  
5 63% 63% Median
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 69% 99.7% Median
3 19% 31% Last Result
4 8% 12%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 94 100% 92–94 91–96 91–97 88–99
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 88 99.1% 79–88 77–88 76–88 74–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 83 100% 82–84 80–85 80–86 78–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 83 92% 76–83 73–83 73–83 71–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 78 95% 77–78 76–79 74–81 71–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 77 62% 71–77 69–77 67–77 66–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 73 3% 71–74 70–74 69–76 67–79
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 68 2% 68–74 68–75 68–75 66–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 71 0% 64–71 63–71 61–71 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 68 0% 60–68 59–68 57–68 56–69
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 60–65 60–66 59–67 58–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 66 0% 60–66 60–66 59–66 56–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 59–64 59–66 57–66 56–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 63 0% 57–63 56–63 55–63 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 57–62 56–62 55–63 54–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 57 0% 52–57 50–57 50–57 48–60
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 39 0% 39–43 39–45 39–46 37–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 40–44 38–46 38–46 38–50
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 34 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 31–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 25–29 25–30 24–31 24–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 23 0% 21–24 20–24 20–26 19–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.8%  
89 0.6% 99.5%  
90 0.6% 98.9% Last Result
91 6% 98%  
92 13% 92%  
93 10% 80%  
94 61% 70% Median
95 3% 9%  
96 3% 6%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.4% 1.1%  
99 0.6% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.5% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 3% 99.1% Majority
77 4% 96% Last Result
78 1.0% 93%  
79 4% 92%  
80 5% 88%  
81 8% 83%  
82 11% 75%  
83 3% 65%  
84 1.3% 61%  
85 0.3% 60%  
86 0.5% 59%  
87 0.4% 59%  
88 58% 58% Median
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.3% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 2% 99.3%  
80 3% 98%  
81 2% 95%  
82 7% 93%  
83 65% 86% Median
84 14% 21%  
85 2% 7% Last Result
86 2% 4%  
87 0.4% 2%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0% 0.5%  
92 0% 0.5%  
93 0.5% 0.5%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.6% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.4%  
73 4% 99.1%  
74 0.9% 95% Last Result
75 3% 94%  
76 7% 92% Majority
77 3% 84%  
78 13% 81%  
79 5% 69%  
80 3% 64%  
81 1.5% 61%  
82 1.0% 60%  
83 58% 59% Median
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 99.1%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 5% 95% Last Result, Majority
77 13% 90%  
78 68% 77% Median
79 5% 10%  
80 1.1% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.2% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.5% 0.5%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.5%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 95%  
70 3% 94%  
71 3% 90%  
72 17% 87% Last Result
73 3% 70%  
74 3% 67%  
75 2% 64%  
76 2% 62% Majority
77 59% 60% Median
78 0.2% 0.9%  
79 0% 0.7%  
80 0.6% 0.7%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 0.8% 99.1%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 5% 94% Last Result
72 7% 89%  
73 65% 82% Median
74 11% 16%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.3% 3% Majority
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.9%  
79 0.1% 0.6%  
80 0% 0.5%  
81 0.5% 0.5%  
82 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.4%  
68 59% 98% Median
69 5% 38%  
70 9% 33%  
71 3% 24%  
72 3% 21%  
73 7% 18%  
74 2% 11%  
75 6% 8%  
76 1.3% 2% Majority
77 0.9% 1.1%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 1.2% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.5% Last Result
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 7% 91%  
65 8% 84%  
66 4% 76%  
67 9% 72%  
68 2% 63%  
69 1.3% 61%  
70 0.4% 60%  
71 58% 59% Median
72 0.9% 1.1%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.6%  
57 2% 98.9% Last Result
58 0.7% 97%  
59 4% 96%  
60 5% 92%  
61 7% 88%  
62 8% 81%  
63 4% 73%  
64 7% 68%  
65 1.2% 62%  
66 0.7% 60%  
67 1.0% 60%  
68 58% 59% Median
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.6%  
59 2% 98%  
60 64% 95% Median
61 4% 31%  
62 10% 28%  
63 4% 17%  
64 2% 13%  
65 5% 11%  
66 3% 6% Last Result
67 2% 3%  
68 0.1% 1.4%  
69 0.3% 1.3%  
70 0.9% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.3%  
58 1.1% 98.6% Last Result
59 3% 98%  
60 8% 95%  
61 7% 87%  
62 5% 80%  
63 10% 75%  
64 1.4% 65%  
65 3% 64%  
66 59% 61% Median
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.3%  
58 0.5% 97%  
59 7% 96%  
60 62% 90% Median
61 10% 27% Last Result
62 5% 17%  
63 2% 12%  
64 2% 10%  
65 1.3% 8%  
66 5% 7%  
67 0.8% 1.5%  
68 0.2% 0.7%  
69 0% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.5% 0.5%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.6%  
54 0.9% 99.0% Last Result
55 2% 98%  
56 4% 96%  
57 9% 92%  
58 5% 83%  
59 7% 78%  
60 7% 71%  
61 3% 64%  
62 0.8% 61%  
63 59% 60% Median
64 0.6% 1.4%  
65 0.6% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 4% 97%  
57 5% 94%  
58 7% 89%  
59 12% 82%  
60 5% 70%  
61 3% 65% Last Result
62 59% 62% Median
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.7%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.9% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.0%  
50 4% 98%  
51 3% 94%  
52 4% 90% Last Result
53 11% 86%  
54 10% 75%  
55 3% 65%  
56 2% 62%  
57 59% 61% Median
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.5% 1.1%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.3% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.4%  
39 62% 98% Median
40 3% 36%  
41 6% 33%  
42 6% 27%  
43 11% 21%  
44 3% 10%  
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.4% 0.8% Last Result
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 5% 99.9%  
39 2% 95%  
40 5% 93%  
41 12% 88%  
42 4% 77% Last Result
43 3% 72%  
44 60% 70% Median
45 3% 9%  
46 5% 6%  
47 0.2% 1.3%  
48 0.1% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.9%  
50 0.5% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 4% 98.7%  
34 63% 95% Median
35 4% 32%  
36 7% 28%  
37 3% 21%  
38 11% 18% Last Result
39 2% 7%  
40 4% 5%  
41 0.2% 0.7%  
42 0.5% 0.5%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 7% 97%  
26 8% 90%  
27 4% 82%  
28 64% 77% Median
29 5% 13%  
30 3% 8%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.6% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.6%  
20 5% 98.9%  
21 7% 94%  
22 7% 87%  
23 67% 81% Median
24 9% 14%  
25 2% 5%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations