Opinion Poll by GfK for EenVandaag, 24 April 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.8–23.0% 19.5–23.3% 18.9–23.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.7% 13.6–15.8% 13.4–16.1% 13.1–16.4% 12.7–16.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.6% 11.7–13.7% 11.4–14.0% 11.2–14.3% 10.8–14.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.6% 11.7–13.7% 11.4–14.0% 11.2–14.3% 10.8–14.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.1–10.7% 7.7–11.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 9.3% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.5% 8.1–10.7% 7.7–11.2%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.3% 4.7–6.1% 4.5–6.3% 4.4–6.5% 4.1–6.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 31–34 30–34 30–34 29–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 20–25 19–25 19–25 19–26
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 20 17–21 17–21 17–22 17–22
Democraten 66 19 20 18–21 17–21 17–23 17–23
GroenLinks 14 14 12–15 12–15 12–16 12–18
Socialistische Partij 14 14 13–15 12–16 12–16 12–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–6 3–6 3–6 3–6
50Plus 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–6 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Forum voor Democratie 2 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.8%  
30 3% 98%  
31 8% 95%  
32 25% 87%  
33 41% 62% Last Result, Median
34 19% 21%  
35 0.4% 2%  
36 0.7% 1.3%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 9% 99.9%  
20 18% 91% Last Result
21 20% 73%  
22 16% 52% Median
23 7% 37%  
24 5% 29%  
25 24% 25%  
26 0.6% 0.6%  
27 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.5% 100%  
17 12% 99.5%  
18 17% 88%  
19 8% 71% Last Result
20 51% 63% Median
21 10% 12%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 7% 99.7%  
18 34% 93%  
19 4% 59% Last Result
20 27% 55% Median
21 24% 28%  
22 1.2% 4%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 19% 99.8%  
13 8% 80%  
14 33% 72% Last Result, Median
15 35% 39%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.2% 1.3%  
18 1.2% 1.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 5% 99.8%  
13 15% 94%  
14 35% 79% Last Result, Median
15 37% 44%  
16 7% 7%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 43% 96%  
8 22% 53% Median
9 31% 32% Last Result
10 0.7% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 21% 100%  
4 30% 79% Median
5 45% 49% Last Result
6 2% 4%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 5% 100%  
4 45% 95% Median
5 13% 50% Last Result
6 36% 37%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 14% 98%  
4 75% 84% Last Result, Median
5 5% 9%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 25% 99.8%  
3 63% 75% Last Result, Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 36% 99.6% Last Result
3 54% 63% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 29% 99.9%  
2 68% 71% Median
3 4% 4% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 90 100% 88–92 87–92 87–94 84–95
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 84 100% 81–86 81–86 81–86 79–88
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 79 98% 77–81 77–82 77–84 74–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 98.8% 78–83 76–83 76–83 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 64% 75–80 74–80 74–80 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie 76 76 63% 74–78 72–78 72–79 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 73 28% 72–78 72–78 72–78 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 71 72 0.5% 70–73 67–73 67–73 66–75
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 63–68 63–70 63–70 61–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 58–63 58–64 58–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 58–62 58–62 57–64 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 58–62 58–62 57–63 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 59 0% 56–60 56–60 56–60 53–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 54–60 54–60 54–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 52–56 52–57 51–57 50–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 52 0% 50–53 49–53 49–54 48–56
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 45–49 43–50 43–50 42–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 39–42 38–42 38–43 36–45
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 38 38 0% 37–41 34–41 34–42 34–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 30–34 29–35 29–35 29–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 26–29 25–30 25–30 24–30

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.7% 100%  
85 0.4% 99.3%  
86 0.3% 98.8%  
87 6% 98.5%  
88 3% 92%  
89 29% 89%  
90 46% 61% Last Result
91 2% 15% Median
92 9% 13%  
93 0.9% 4%  
94 3% 3%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0% 0.2%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 1.1% 99.8%  
80 1.0% 98.7%  
81 27% 98%  
82 1.2% 70%  
83 3% 69%  
84 23% 66%  
85 32% 43% Last Result, Median
86 8% 10%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.9% 99.4%  
76 0.3% 98% Majority
77 24% 98%  
78 0.5% 74%  
79 32% 74%  
80 29% 42% Last Result, Median
81 5% 13%  
82 3% 8%  
83 0.3% 5%  
84 5% 5%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 1.1% 99.9%  
76 6% 98.8% Majority
77 2% 93% Last Result
78 25% 91%  
79 29% 66%  
80 8% 37%  
81 0.9% 29% Median
82 4% 28%  
83 24% 24%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 1.2% 99.6%  
74 6% 98% Last Result
75 28% 92%  
76 28% 64% Majority
77 2% 36%  
78 5% 34% Median
79 2% 29%  
80 26% 27%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 2% 99.7%  
72 5% 98%  
73 0.9% 92%  
74 23% 91%  
75 5% 68%  
76 27% 63% Last Result, Majority
77 13% 36% Median
78 20% 23%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 1.2% 99.6%  
71 0.2% 98%  
72 34% 98% Last Result
73 21% 64%  
74 12% 43%  
75 3% 31% Median
76 3% 28% Majority
77 4% 25%  
78 21% 21%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 1.3% 99.9%  
67 6% 98.6%  
68 0.8% 92%  
69 1.3% 92%  
70 3% 90%  
71 37% 88% Last Result
72 22% 51%  
73 28% 30% Median
74 0.6% 1.4%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.5% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.1% 99.2%  
63 27% 98%  
64 18% 72%  
65 21% 53%  
66 17% 33% Last Result, Median
67 5% 16%  
68 5% 11%  
69 0.3% 6%  
70 5% 5%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 11% 99.1%  
59 3% 89%  
60 2% 86%  
61 8% 84% Last Result
62 65% 77%  
63 2% 11% Median
64 9% 10%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 1.0% 99.7%  
56 0.8% 98.8%  
57 2% 98%  
58 24% 96%  
59 10% 72%  
60 31% 62%  
61 9% 31% Last Result, Median
62 17% 22%  
63 1.0% 5%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.2% 0.7%  
66 0.3% 0.4%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.6%  
57 2% 98.8%  
58 10% 97%  
59 26% 87%  
60 41% 61%  
61 6% 20% Last Result, Median
62 11% 15%  
63 3% 4%  
64 0.1% 0.7%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.4%  
55 1.2% 99.2%  
56 12% 98%  
57 1.0% 86%  
58 6% 85% Last Result
59 62% 80%  
60 15% 18% Median
61 1.5% 2%  
62 0.4% 0.8%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 1.3% 99.7%  
54 11% 98%  
55 2% 88%  
56 6% 86%  
57 2% 80% Last Result
58 62% 79%  
59 5% 17% Median
60 11% 12%  
61 0.4% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 99.8%  
51 3% 99.2%  
52 10% 96%  
53 1.0% 86%  
54 7% 85% Last Result
55 58% 78%  
56 14% 21% Median
57 5% 7%  
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 1.4% 99.7%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 95%  
51 6% 85%  
52 40% 79% Last Result
53 34% 39% Median
54 4% 5%  
55 0.4% 1.2%  
56 0.6% 0.7%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 6% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 94%  
45 24% 92%  
46 19% 68%  
47 11% 50% Last Result
48 26% 38% Median
49 5% 12%  
50 7% 7%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.1% 99.8%  
37 0.6% 98.6%  
38 6% 98%  
39 20% 92%  
40 27% 72%  
41 9% 45% Median
42 32% 36% Last Result
43 2% 4%  
44 0.5% 1.3%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Democraten 66

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 5% 99.7%  
35 1.3% 94%  
36 0.6% 93%  
37 4% 93%  
38 47% 89% Last Result
39 6% 42%  
40 7% 36% Median
41 26% 29%  
42 1.3% 3%  
43 1.1% 1.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 5% 99.6%  
30 38% 95%  
31 8% 57%  
32 25% 50% Median
33 6% 25% Last Result
34 12% 19%  
35 6% 6%  
36 0.7% 0.7%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.7%  
25 3% 98%  
26 24% 94%  
27 42% 70%  
28 9% 28% Last Result, Median
29 11% 19%  
30 8% 8%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations