Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 19 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.6% 21.9–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.3% 20.3–27.2%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.9% 12.6–15.4% 12.2–15.8% 11.9–16.2% 11.3–16.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
50Plus 3.1% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 35 35–37 35–38 34–39 33–42
Democraten 66 19 23 23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 21 19–21 18–22 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 15 15–16 15–18 14–19
GroenLinks 14 13 13 13–14 12–15 11–16
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–9 8–9 7–9 6–10
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 6–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5 5 5–6 4–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
DENK 3 4 4 4–5 3–6 3–6
50Plus 4 2 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.6% Last Result
34 0.4% 98%  
35 71% 97% Median
36 1.0% 26%  
37 19% 25%  
38 2% 6%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0% 0.8%  
42 0.8% 0.8%  
43 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
20 5% 99.2%  
21 0.7% 94%  
22 3% 94%  
23 90% 91% Median
24 0.2% 0.7%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.6%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 3% 96%  
20 1.2% 93% Last Result
21 89% 92% Median
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 92% 98% Median
16 1.5% 6%  
17 0.6% 5%  
18 2% 4%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.8%  
12 1.3% 98%  
13 89% 97% Median
14 5% 9% Last Result
15 3% 4%  
16 0.9% 1.2%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 4% 99.4%  
8 19% 96%  
9 76% 77% Median
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 2% 99.8%  
7 23% 98%  
8 73% 74% Median
9 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 17% 99.9%  
5 4% 83% Last Result
6 75% 78% Median
7 2% 3%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.8% 100%  
5 95% 99.1% Median
6 3% 4%  
7 0.4% 0.7%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 7% 98%  
5 74% 91% Last Result, Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8% Last Result
4 89% 97% Median
5 4% 8%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 75% 99.9% Median
3 4% 25%  
4 21% 21% Last Result
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 26% 99.7%  
3 73% 74% Last Result, Median
4 0.9% 1.0%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 92 100% 92–93 92–95 92–96 89–97
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 86–87 86–87 86–90 84–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 99.7% 79–80 79–82 77–83 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 79 99.6% 79 79–80 79–82 76–85
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 96% 76–78 76–79 74–81 74–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 73 3% 73–75 73–75 72–76 70–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 4% 71–73 71–73 69–76 68–78
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 74 3% 70–74 70–74 68–76 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 66–67 65–67 63–67 61–71
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 62–65 62–65 61–67 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 60–63 60–64 60–66 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 57–61 57–62 57–64 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 58–59 58–61 58–63 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 58–59 58–61 58–63 56–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 55–57 55–59 55–60 55–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 50–52 50–54 50–55 49–58
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 45–46 43–46 42–48 41–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 43 0% 43–44 43–45 41–46 40–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 38 0% 38 36–38 35–41 34–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 29 0% 26–29 26–30 26–31 25–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 23 0% 22–23 22–24 22–25 20–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
91 0.3% 98.9%  
92 88% 98.6% Median
93 4% 11%  
94 1.0% 7%  
95 2% 6%  
96 1.4% 3%  
97 1.4% 2%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.1% 99.6%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
86 19% 98%  
87 75% 79% Median
88 0.3% 4%  
89 1.4% 4%  
90 0.2% 3%  
91 2% 2%  
92 0.7% 0.8%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.3% 100%  
76 2% 99.7% Majority
77 1.3% 98% Last Result
78 0.4% 96%  
79 71% 96% Median
80 19% 25%  
81 1.2% 6%  
82 0.5% 5%  
83 4% 5%  
84 0.1% 0.7%  
85 0.6% 0.7%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.6% Last Result, Majority
77 0.3% 99.3%  
78 0.8% 99.0%  
79 92% 98% Median
80 2% 6%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.2% 2%  
84 0.1% 2%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 2% 99.6% Last Result
75 1.0% 97%  
76 71% 96% Median, Majority
77 0.9% 25%  
78 18% 24%  
79 1.3% 6%  
80 0.2% 5%  
81 4% 4%  
82 0.1% 0.7%  
83 0.6% 0.6%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
72 2% 99.0%  
73 71% 97% Median
74 5% 26%  
75 17% 20%  
76 0.9% 3% Majority
77 0.1% 2%  
78 0.1% 2%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.7% 0.8%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.5%  
69 3% 99.0%  
70 0.3% 96%  
71 72% 96% Median
72 0.5% 25% Last Result
73 19% 24%  
74 0.4% 5%  
75 0.3% 4%  
76 3% 4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.7%  
78 0.6% 0.6%  
79 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.6%  
69 1.0% 97%  
70 17% 96%  
71 0.7% 80%  
72 0.6% 79%  
73 3% 78%  
74 71% 75% Median
75 0.5% 3%  
76 0.9% 3% Majority
77 2% 2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
62 0.3% 99.4%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 0.5% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 75% 94% Median
67 17% 20%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.0%  
71 0.6% 0.6%  
72 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.7%  
61 2% 98.9%  
62 18% 96%  
63 0.3% 79%  
64 3% 79%  
65 71% 75% Median
66 1.2% 4% Last Result
67 0.8% 3%  
68 0.1% 2%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 71% 99.5% Median
61 2% 29% Last Result
62 3% 27%  
63 17% 24%  
64 3% 7%  
65 0.4% 4%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 1.3% 1.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 71% 99.7% Median
58 0.4% 29% Last Result
59 3% 29%  
60 3% 26%  
61 17% 23%  
62 3% 6%  
63 0.8% 3%  
64 0.7% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 1.2% 1.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
58 73% 99.4% Median
59 19% 27%  
60 0.9% 8%  
61 3% 7%  
62 1.1% 4%  
63 0.5% 3%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.7% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.6%  
57 0.3% 99.4%  
58 74% 99.0% Median
59 17% 25%  
60 2% 8%  
61 3% 6% Last Result
62 0.2% 3%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
55 71% 99.5% Median
56 2% 29%  
57 20% 27%  
58 0.3% 7%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.3% 4%  
61 0.2% 2%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.7% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 71% 99.3% Median
51 3% 29%  
52 19% 25% Last Result
53 0.6% 7%  
54 3% 6%  
55 0.6% 3%  
56 0.1% 2%  
57 1.2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.4%  
43 2% 96%  
44 1.2% 94%  
45 18% 93%  
46 71% 75% Median
47 2% 4% Last Result
48 2% 3%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.7%  
41 0.4% 98%  
42 0.8% 97% Last Result
43 71% 97% Median
44 19% 25%  
45 2% 7%  
46 3% 5%  
47 0.4% 1.5%  
48 0.2% 1.1%  
49 0.7% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.3%  
51 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.6%  
35 4% 99.4%  
36 1.0% 95%  
37 1.5% 94%  
38 88% 93% Last Result, Median
39 0.5% 4%  
40 0.4% 4%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 17% 99.2%  
27 3% 82%  
28 1.1% 79%  
29 72% 78% Median
30 2% 7%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.6% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 1.3% 99.2%  
22 19% 98%  
23 73% 78% Median
24 0.4% 5%  
25 3% 5%  
26 0.8% 1.3%  
27 0.2% 0.5%  
28 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations