Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 21 May 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.4–22.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.9–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 32–34 32–34 32–35 30–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 18–22 18–22 18–22 18–23
Democraten 66 19 19 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 18 18 16–18 16–20 16–20
GroenLinks 14 15 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–16
Socialistische Partij 14 13 12–14 11–14 11–14 11–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 9–10 8–10 8–11 7–11
ChristenUnie 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 54% 98% Median
33 25% 44% Last Result
34 15% 19%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.1% 0.3%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 13% 100%  
19 6% 87%  
20 10% 81% Last Result
21 3% 71%  
22 66% 67% Median
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0% 0.2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.5% 99.8%  
18 14% 98%  
19 74% 84% Last Result, Median
20 2% 11%  
21 7% 9%  
22 1.4% 1.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 6% 100%  
17 2% 94%  
18 88% 92% Median
19 0.8% 4% Last Result
20 3% 3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.5% 100%  
13 22% 99.5%  
14 19% 78% Last Result
15 56% 59% Median
16 3% 3%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 9% 100%  
12 3% 91%  
13 73% 88% Median
14 15% 15% Last Result
15 0.3% 0.5%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 2% 100%  
8 4% 98%  
9 83% 94% Last Result, Median
10 8% 11%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 66% 99.3% Median
5 32% 33% Last Result
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 63% 99.8% Median
5 20% 37% Last Result
6 17% 17%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9% Last Result
5 71% 94% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100% Last Result
3 8% 99.9%  
4 90% 92% Median
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 89% 100% Median
3 10% 11% Last Result
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 19% 100%  
3 80% 81% Last Result, Median
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 88–89 87–91 87–92 85–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 82–84 82–86 82–87 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 99.3% 76–79 76–79 76–80 75–81
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 78 89% 75–78 75–80 75–80 75–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 68% 74–77 74–77 74–78 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 73 9% 73–75 73–76 73–77 71–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 72 0.3% 70–73 70–73 70–74 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 69 0% 69–70 69–72 68–73 67–73
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 64–65 64–67 63–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 61–64 60–64 60–64 60–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 60–63 60–64 59–64 58–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 59 0% 59–62 58–62 58–62 57–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 59–61 59–62 58–62 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 56–58 55–59 55–59 55–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 54–56 53–56 53–57 52–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 50–52 49–53 49–53 48–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 45–47 45–48 44–49 42–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 41–43 41–43 41–44 38–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 37 0% 36–37 36–39 35–39 34–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 31–32 30–32 30–33 29–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 27 26–28 25–29 24–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 1.5% 100%  
86 0.5% 98.5%  
87 5% 98%  
88 69% 93% Median
89 14% 23%  
90 3% 9% Last Result
91 3% 6%  
92 1.4% 3%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 1.0% 100%  
81 0.8% 99.0%  
82 54% 98% Median
83 3% 44%  
84 33% 41%  
85 2% 8% Last Result
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.6%  
76 17% 99.3% Majority
77 13% 82% Last Result
78 55% 69% Median
79 10% 14%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.8% 1.0%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 10% 99.8%  
76 2% 89% Majority
77 12% 87%  
78 66% 75% Median
79 1.0% 9%  
80 8% 8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.3%  
74 25% 99.0% Last Result
75 6% 74%  
76 56% 68% Median, Majority
77 10% 13%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.0% 100%  
72 0.8% 99.0%  
73 54% 98% Median
74 6% 44%  
75 29% 39%  
76 6% 9% Last Result, Majority
77 2% 3%  
78 1.0% 1.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.2% 99.3%  
70 18% 99.2%  
71 13% 81%  
72 56% 68% Last Result, Median
73 10% 12%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.3% 0.3% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 1.0% 99.9%  
68 2% 98.9%  
69 54% 97% Median
70 33% 43%  
71 2% 10% Last Result
72 5% 8%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.3% 0.3%  
75 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.3%  
63 3% 98.6%  
64 33% 96%  
65 54% 63% Median
66 0.9% 9% Last Result
67 7% 8%  
68 1.1% 1.3%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 6% 99.5%  
61 54% 94% Last Result, Median
62 13% 40%  
63 10% 27%  
64 15% 17%  
65 0.7% 1.1%  
66 0.4% 0.4%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.8% 99.8%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 55% 97% Median
61 30% 42% Last Result
62 0.8% 12%  
63 1.5% 11%  
64 7% 9%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 6% 99.2% Last Result
59 54% 93% Median
60 21% 39%  
61 3% 18%  
62 14% 15%  
63 0.8% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 1.2% 100%  
57 1.1% 98.8%  
58 2% 98%  
59 57% 96% Median
60 17% 39%  
61 16% 21% Last Result
62 3% 5%  
63 0.2% 2%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 6% 99.6%  
56 54% 94% Median
57 20% 40% Last Result
58 15% 20%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.9%  
53 6% 99.3%  
54 61% 93% Last Result, Median
55 14% 32%  
56 13% 18%  
57 3% 5%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 6% 99.4%  
50 55% 93% Median
51 21% 39%  
52 13% 18% Last Result
53 3% 5%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.6% 100%  
43 0.9% 99.4%  
44 2% 98.6%  
45 13% 97%  
46 69% 83% Median
47 8% 15% Last Result
48 4% 7%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 1.5% 100%  
39 0.1% 98.5%  
40 0.9% 98%  
41 54% 98% Median
42 20% 43% Last Result
43 21% 24%  
44 0.5% 3%  
45 0.3% 2%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 14% 97%  
37 76% 84% Median
38 2% 8% Last Result
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 1.0% 99.9%  
30 8% 98.9%  
31 54% 91% Median
32 32% 37%  
33 3% 4% Last Result
34 0.4% 1.1%  
35 0.7% 0.7%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 1.4% 100%  
25 2% 98.6%  
26 6% 97%  
27 82% 91% Median
28 5% 8% Last Result
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.8%  
31 0.7% 0.7%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations