Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 1 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.6–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
50Plus 3.1% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
DENK 2.1% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 38 33–40 33–40 33–41 32–42
Democraten 66 19 20 17–21 17–22 16–22 15–24
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 17 15–20 15–21 15–21 14–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–19 14–20 14–21 13–22
GroenLinks 14 14 13–17 13–18 13–19 12–19
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–10 7–11 6–11 6–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 6 5–8 5–10 5–10 4–11
ChristenUnie 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–9 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 4–6 4–6 4–7 3–8
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 4–6 3–6 3–7 3–8
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–6 2–6 2–6
DENK 3 3 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–5

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 9% 98% Last Result
34 6% 88%  
35 6% 82%  
36 4% 77%  
37 22% 72%  
38 2% 51% Median
39 9% 48%  
40 35% 39%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.1% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.9%  
16 2% 98.7%  
17 7% 97%  
18 9% 90%  
19 9% 81% Last Result
20 44% 72% Median
21 21% 27%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.9% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.8%  
15 11% 99.4%  
16 4% 89%  
17 43% 85% Median
18 6% 41%  
19 8% 35%  
20 18% 28% Last Result
21 7% 9%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.2% 0.5%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.5% 99.9%  
14 5% 99.4%  
15 5% 94%  
16 56% 89% Median
17 11% 34%  
18 12% 23%  
19 5% 10% Last Result
20 3% 6%  
21 1.2% 3%  
22 1.1% 1.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.9%  
13 13% 99.1%  
14 48% 86% Last Result, Median
15 9% 38%  
16 15% 29%  
17 4% 14%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 8% 95%  
8 45% 87% Median
9 19% 43%  
10 18% 23%  
11 5% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.7%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 39% 98%  
6 25% 59% Median
7 13% 34%  
8 14% 20%  
9 2% 7% Last Result
10 5% 5%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.7% 100%  
5 12% 99.2% Last Result
6 29% 88%  
7 42% 58% Median
8 13% 17%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.3% 100%  
4 9% 98.7%  
5 39% 90% Last Result
6 46% 51% Median
7 4% 5%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100% Last Result
3 6% 99.9%  
4 15% 94%  
5 31% 79% Median
6 44% 48%  
7 3% 4%  
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 4% 100%  
3 31% 96%  
4 49% 65% Last Result, Median
5 10% 16%  
6 6% 6%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 8% 99.9%  
3 56% 91% Last Result, Median
4 29% 36%  
5 6% 7%  
6 0.8% 0.9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 33% 98%  
3 59% 65% Last Result, Median
4 4% 6%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 97 100% 92–98 91–99 90–99 89–101
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 82–90 82–92 82–92 80–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 82 95% 76–83 76–84 75–86 74–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 81 98% 76–84 76–84 76–85 74–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 79 68% 73–80 73–81 73–81 71–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 75 46% 70–76 69–77 68–79 67–79
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 72 19% 69–77 68–78 68–78 66–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 73 8% 69–75 68–77 68–77 66–78
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 62–69 59–69 59–70 58–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 67 0% 60–69 59–69 59–69 59–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 60–66 59–68 58–68 57–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 64 0% 58–66 56–67 56–67 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 63 0% 57–65 56–66 56–66 55–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 55–63 55–64 55–65 54–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 60 0% 54–62 53–63 53–64 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 55 0% 49–57 49–57 49–58 48–60
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 41 0% 41–47 40–47 39–48 38–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 45 0% 39–47 39–47 39–48 38–48
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 34–39 34–39 33–41 31–43
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 28–33 26–34 26–35 25–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 22 0% 21–26 21–27 21–28 19–29

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.3% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 4% 99.3% Last Result
91 5% 95%  
92 12% 90%  
93 7% 78%  
94 4% 71%  
95 5% 67% Median
96 6% 62%  
97 41% 55%  
98 9% 15%  
99 4% 5%  
100 0.7% 1.5%  
101 0.6% 0.8%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.3% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.6% 99.3%  
82 10% 98.7%  
83 4% 89%  
84 7% 85%  
85 13% 78% Last Result
86 4% 65%  
87 3% 61% Median
88 39% 58%  
89 3% 19%  
90 8% 16%  
91 0.6% 8%  
92 7% 7%  
93 0.7% 0.9%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.8%  
75 4% 99.3%  
76 11% 95% Majority
77 9% 84% Last Result
78 13% 75%  
79 3% 62% Median
80 3% 59%  
81 5% 56%  
82 39% 51%  
83 6% 12%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 3% 3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.8% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 98.8%  
76 11% 98% Last Result, Majority
77 8% 87%  
78 8% 79%  
79 9% 72%  
80 7% 62%  
81 7% 55% Median
82 2% 48%  
83 35% 46%  
84 8% 11%  
85 2% 3%  
86 0.6% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.4%  
73 14% 99.0%  
74 3% 85% Last Result
75 14% 82%  
76 7% 68% Median, Majority
77 4% 61%  
78 2% 57%  
79 39% 55%  
80 6% 16%  
81 8% 10%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.0%  
69 4% 97%  
70 11% 93%  
71 4% 82% Last Result
72 6% 79%  
73 11% 72%  
74 8% 61% Median
75 8% 53%  
76 41% 46% Majority
77 1.4% 5%  
78 1.2% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.8% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.2%  
68 5% 98.8%  
69 3% 93%  
70 36% 90%  
71 4% 54% Median
72 5% 50%  
73 4% 45%  
74 3% 42%  
75 19% 38%  
76 8% 19% Majority
77 2% 12%  
78 7% 10%  
79 0.2% 2%  
80 2% 2% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.3%  
68 6% 98.8%  
69 11% 93%  
70 13% 82%  
71 7% 69% Median
72 4% 62% Last Result
73 39% 58%  
74 6% 19%  
75 5% 13%  
76 3% 8% Majority
77 4% 5%  
78 0.7% 1.1%  
79 0% 0.4%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 1.2% 99.9%  
59 4% 98.7%  
60 0.6% 95%  
61 3% 94%  
62 41% 92%  
63 0.4% 51% Median
64 10% 50%  
65 11% 40%  
66 11% 29% Last Result
67 4% 18%  
68 2% 15%  
69 9% 12%  
70 1.4% 3%  
71 0.6% 1.5%  
72 0% 0.9%  
73 0.8% 0.8%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 9% 99.9%  
60 3% 91%  
61 8% 89% Last Result
62 2% 80%  
63 2% 79%  
64 6% 77%  
65 1.2% 71%  
66 18% 69% Median
67 3% 51%  
68 8% 48%  
69 38% 40%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.8%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 3% 99.3%  
59 2% 96%  
60 14% 94%  
61 8% 80% Last Result
62 5% 72%  
63 7% 68%  
64 6% 61% Median
65 36% 55%  
66 11% 19%  
67 2% 8%  
68 5% 6%  
69 0.9% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 9% 100%  
57 0.7% 91%  
58 3% 91% Last Result
59 8% 87%  
60 1.4% 80%  
61 1.4% 78%  
62 8% 77%  
63 9% 69% Median
64 13% 60%  
65 5% 47%  
66 36% 42%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.2% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 9% 99.4%  
57 5% 90% Last Result
58 5% 85%  
59 2% 80%  
60 11% 78%  
61 8% 68%  
62 4% 60% Median
63 8% 56%  
64 4% 48%  
65 39% 44%  
66 4% 5%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.8%  
55 9% 99.2%  
56 1.1% 90%  
57 4% 89%  
58 6% 85%  
59 6% 79%  
60 6% 74% Median
61 39% 67% Last Result
62 7% 28%  
63 13% 21%  
64 3% 8%  
65 4% 5%  
66 0.4% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 9% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 91% Last Result
55 6% 90%  
56 5% 84%  
57 2% 79%  
58 12% 77%  
59 8% 65% Median
60 9% 57%  
61 6% 48%  
62 36% 43%  
63 2% 7%  
64 4% 4%  
65 0.6% 0.7%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.6%  
49 9% 98.9%  
50 6% 90%  
51 3% 84%  
52 2% 81% Last Result
53 15% 78%  
54 4% 63% Median
55 9% 59%  
56 39% 50%  
57 6% 11%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.7% 1.3%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.1%  
40 5% 96%  
41 43% 90%  
42 6% 48% Median
43 14% 41%  
44 8% 28%  
45 4% 19%  
46 2% 15%  
47 10% 14% Last Result
48 2% 4%  
49 0.8% 2%  
50 1.2% 1.4%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 10% 98.9%  
40 3% 89%  
41 5% 86%  
42 6% 80% Last Result
43 9% 74%  
44 3% 65% Median
45 44% 62%  
46 8% 18%  
47 7% 10%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.3%  
33 3% 98%  
34 11% 95%  
35 6% 84%  
36 42% 78% Median
37 19% 36%  
38 2% 17% Last Result
39 11% 15%  
40 0.9% 4%  
41 0.5% 3%  
42 1.0% 2%  
43 1.1% 1.3%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.1% 99.9%  
26 5% 98.8%  
27 2% 94%  
28 50% 91%  
29 5% 42% Median
30 4% 37%  
31 6% 33%  
32 15% 27%  
33 2% 12% Last Result
34 7% 10%  
35 1.4% 3%  
36 0.4% 1.2%  
37 0.7% 0.8%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.8% 100%  
20 1.5% 99.2%  
21 40% 98%  
22 19% 58% Median
23 4% 39%  
24 10% 35%  
25 6% 25%  
26 13% 19%  
27 3% 6%  
28 2% 3% Last Result
29 1.2% 1.5%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations