Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 18 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.4% 19.0–21.9% 18.6–22.3% 18.3–22.6% 17.7–23.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.2% 14.0–16.5% 13.6–16.9% 13.3–17.2% 12.8–17.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.1% 10.9–14.4% 10.4–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.5% 9.4–11.6% 9.2–11.9% 8.9–12.2% 8.5–12.8%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.7% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.1% 8.2–11.4% 7.8–12.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6% 6.2–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 4.9–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.7–5.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.2–4.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.1% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–4.0% 2.3–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
50Plus 3.1% 2.6% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–4.0%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.3–3.4%
DENK 2.1% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 1.0–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 35 29–35 29–35 28–35 27–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 22 22–24 21–25 20–26 19–27
Democraten 66 19 20 18–20 17–21 16–21 15–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–17 15–18 14–19 13–19
GroenLinks 14 13 13–16 13–17 13–18 12–18
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–12 11–13 10–13 10–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 8–10 8–12 7–12 7–14
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
50Plus 4 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.7%  
28 3% 99.3%  
29 16% 97%  
30 9% 81%  
31 5% 72%  
32 6% 67%  
33 2% 61% Last Result
34 3% 60%  
35 56% 56% Median
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 2% 100%  
20 0.9% 98% Last Result
21 5% 97%  
22 57% 92% Median
23 18% 35%  
24 9% 18%  
25 4% 8%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 2% 98.8%  
17 3% 97%  
18 5% 95%  
19 12% 89% Last Result
20 70% 77% Median
21 5% 7%  
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.5% 1.0%  
24 0.5% 0.5%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 2% 98.9%  
15 9% 97%  
16 11% 88%  
17 71% 78% Median
18 4% 7%  
19 3% 3% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.8%  
13 61% 99.3% Median
14 5% 38% Last Result
15 22% 33%  
16 5% 11%  
17 2% 5%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 25% 96%  
12 63% 71% Median
13 6% 8%  
14 1.4% 2% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.4%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 4% 100%  
8 67% 96% Median
9 15% 30% Last Result
10 5% 14%  
11 2% 9%  
12 6% 7%  
13 0.4% 1.0%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 28% 96% Last Result
6 60% 68% Median
7 6% 8%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.5% 100%  
4 69% 99.5% Median
5 8% 30% Last Result
6 18% 22%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 8% 100%  
4 73% 92% Median
5 16% 19%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.9% 100%  
3 68% 99.1% Median
4 18% 31% Last Result
5 12% 13%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 82% 95% Last Result, Median
4 12% 13%  
5 1.0% 1.0%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 27% 98%  
3 71% 72% Last Result, Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 91 100% 85–91 83–91 83–91 83–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 99.9% 79–86 78–86 78–86 77–86
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 91% 76–79 74–80 74–81 72–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 81 96% 76–81 76–81 74–81 73–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 78 68% 73–78 72–78 71–78 70–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 78 57% 70–78 70–78 69–78 68–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 74 0.4% 69–74 67–74 66–74 66–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 72 0% 65–72 64–72 63–72 61–72
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 63–67 63–68 62–70 62–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 63 0% 57–63 56–63 56–64 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 57–62 56–62 56–63 53–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 54–60 53–60 53–61 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 53–59 53–59 52–60 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 53–59 52–59 52–60 50–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 49–56 49–56 49–57 47–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 52 0% 45–52 44–52 44–52 43–52
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 43–47 43–47 42–49 42–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 43 0% 37–43 37–44 37–45 36–45
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 37 0% 34–37 33–38 32–39 31–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 29–33 29–33 29–35 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 24–27 24–28 24–29 23–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 6% 99.7%  
84 2% 94%  
85 5% 92%  
86 12% 87%  
87 6% 75%  
88 4% 68%  
89 5% 64%  
90 3% 60% Last Result
91 56% 56% Median
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Majority
77 0.9% 99.7%  
78 6% 98.8%  
79 15% 93%  
80 2% 78%  
81 6% 76%  
82 2% 70%  
83 1.1% 67%  
84 8% 66%  
85 1.5% 58% Last Result
86 57% 57% Median
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 1.4% 99.9%  
73 0.9% 98.5%  
74 5% 98%  
75 2% 93%  
76 70% 91% Median, Majority
77 6% 21%  
78 5% 16%  
79 6% 11%  
80 1.0% 5% Last Result
81 3% 4%  
82 0.5% 1.0%  
83 0.5% 0.5%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.9%  
74 0.7% 98%  
75 1.4% 97%  
76 14% 96% Majority
77 3% 82% Last Result
78 9% 78%  
79 11% 69%  
80 2% 59%  
81 55% 57% Median
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.2% 1.5%  
84 1.3% 1.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.5%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 5% 97%  
73 11% 92%  
74 3% 81% Last Result
75 9% 77%  
76 10% 68% Majority
77 1.3% 58%  
78 55% 57% Median
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.1% 1.4%  
81 1.2% 1.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 1.3% 99.8%  
69 3% 98.5%  
70 9% 96%  
71 14% 87%  
72 7% 72%  
73 3% 65%  
74 1.1% 62%  
75 4% 61%  
76 3% 57% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 54%  
78 54% 54% Median
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.9%  
66 2% 99.6%  
67 5% 97%  
68 1.1% 92%  
69 14% 91%  
70 4% 77%  
71 4% 73%  
72 9% 69% Last Result
73 3% 60%  
74 55% 57% Median
75 2% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.4% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.2%  
63 2% 98.8%  
64 6% 97%  
65 5% 91%  
66 17% 86%  
67 6% 69%  
68 2% 63%  
69 4% 61%  
70 2% 57%  
71 0.5% 55% Last Result
72 54% 54% Median
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 3% 99.6%  
63 9% 97%  
64 56% 88% Median
65 12% 31%  
66 6% 19% Last Result
67 7% 13%  
68 1.1% 6%  
69 1.5% 5%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.9% 100%  
54 0% 99.1%  
55 0.1% 99.1%  
56 5% 98.9%  
57 13% 94%  
58 2% 81%  
59 5% 79%  
60 8% 74%  
61 2% 65% Last Result
62 2% 63%  
63 59% 61% Median
64 2% 3%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.7% 99.8%  
54 0.1% 99.1%  
55 0.8% 99.0%  
56 4% 98%  
57 14% 94%  
58 11% 81%  
59 4% 69%  
60 4% 65%  
61 2% 61% Last Result
62 55% 59% Median
63 2% 4%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 5% 99.0%  
54 16% 94%  
55 6% 78%  
56 2% 73%  
57 0.8% 71%  
58 1.0% 70%  
59 5% 69%  
60 61% 64% Median
61 3% 3% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.3% 99.2%  
52 2% 98.9%  
53 8% 97%  
54 9% 89%  
55 14% 80%  
56 2% 66%  
57 1.2% 64%  
58 4% 63% Last Result
59 55% 59% Median
60 2% 3%  
61 1.3% 1.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.3%  
52 4% 98.8%  
53 15% 95%  
54 10% 79%  
55 3% 69%  
56 4% 65%  
57 2% 61% Last Result
58 0.5% 59%  
59 56% 58% Median
60 3% 3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.4% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.6%  
48 1.1% 99.3%  
49 8% 98%  
50 12% 90%  
51 12% 78%  
52 1.4% 66%  
53 2% 65%  
54 4% 63% Last Result
55 2% 59%  
56 54% 57% Median
57 3% 3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.3% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.6%  
44 5% 98.9%  
45 4% 94%  
46 16% 90%  
47 4% 74%  
48 6% 70%  
49 4% 64%  
50 3% 60%  
51 1.5% 57%  
52 56% 56% Last Result, Median
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.7%  
43 10% 97%  
44 5% 87%  
45 69% 82% Median
46 2% 12%  
47 6% 10% Last Result
48 0.9% 5%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.7%  
37 14% 98%  
38 6% 84%  
39 3% 78%  
40 5% 75%  
41 2% 70%  
42 1.2% 67% Last Result
43 57% 66% Median
44 6% 9%  
45 3% 3%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 1.2% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 98.7%  
33 4% 97%  
34 6% 94%  
35 9% 88%  
36 9% 80%  
37 64% 70% Median
38 2% 6% Last Result
39 3% 4%  
40 0.1% 0.8%  
41 0.7% 0.7%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 9% 98%  
30 12% 89%  
31 60% 77% Median
32 4% 17%  
33 8% 13% Last Result
34 2% 5%  
35 0.4% 3%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.7%  
24 11% 98.7%  
25 70% 88% Median
26 5% 18%  
27 3% 13%  
28 7% 10% Last Result
29 3% 3%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations