Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 18 June 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.3% |
22.0% |
21.0–23.0% |
20.8–23.3% |
20.5–23.5% |
20.1–24.0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
13.1% |
14.0% |
13.2–14.8% |
13.0–15.1% |
12.8–15.3% |
12.4–15.7% |
Democraten 66 |
12.2% |
13.3% |
12.6–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.2–14.6% |
11.8–15.0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
12.4% |
11.3% |
10.6–12.1% |
10.4–12.3% |
10.2–12.5% |
9.9–12.9% |
GroenLinks |
9.1% |
9.3% |
8.7–10.1% |
8.5–10.3% |
8.3–10.4% |
8.0–10.8% |
Socialistische Partij |
9.1% |
7.3% |
6.8–8.0% |
6.6–8.2% |
6.4–8.3% |
6.2–8.6% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
6.7% |
6.1–7.3% |
6.0–7.5% |
5.8–7.6% |
5.6–7.9% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.2% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Forum voor Democratie |
1.8% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
50Plus |
3.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
DENK |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
32 |
8% |
99.3% |
|
33 |
20% |
92% |
Last Result |
34 |
47% |
71% |
Median |
35 |
6% |
24% |
|
36 |
3% |
18% |
|
37 |
16% |
16% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
73% |
96% |
Last Result, Median |
21 |
4% |
23% |
|
22 |
16% |
19% |
|
23 |
3% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.1% |
Last Result |
20 |
53% |
97% |
Median |
21 |
36% |
44% |
|
22 |
8% |
8% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
15 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
29% |
98% |
|
17 |
24% |
69% |
Median |
18 |
40% |
45% |
|
19 |
5% |
5% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
1.2% |
100% |
|
13 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
14 |
59% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
15 |
36% |
38% |
|
16 |
2% |
2% |
|
17 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
6% |
100% |
|
10 |
63% |
94% |
Median |
11 |
9% |
31% |
|
12 |
22% |
22% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
8 |
1.1% |
99.9% |
|
9 |
4% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
10 |
42% |
94% |
|
11 |
38% |
52% |
Median |
12 |
14% |
14% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
58% |
99.9% |
Median |
5 |
22% |
42% |
Last Result |
6 |
20% |
20% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
39% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
26% |
61% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
36% |
36% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
29% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
69% |
71% |
Median |
6 |
2% |
2% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
54% |
100% |
Median |
3 |
45% |
46% |
|
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
3 |
99.1% |
99.4% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
2 |
49% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
47% |
51% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
3% |
3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
90 |
91 |
100% |
89–92 |
89–92 |
88–92 |
88–93 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
85 |
87 |
100% |
87–88 |
85–88 |
84–88 |
82–90 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
80 |
99.9% |
77–81 |
77–81 |
77–82 |
76–83 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
80 |
78 |
80% |
75–80 |
75–80 |
75–80 |
75–81 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
77 |
77% |
74–78 |
74–78 |
74–79 |
73–80 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
76 |
77 |
84% |
75–77 |
75–78 |
74–78 |
72–79 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
72 |
72 |
0.2% |
70–73 |
70–73 |
70–74 |
69–75 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
71 |
73 |
0% |
70–73 |
70–73 |
70–73 |
68–73 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
66 |
68 |
0% |
65–68 |
65–69 |
65–69 |
64–69 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
65 |
0% |
64–68 |
63–68 |
63–68 |
62–68 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
61 |
62 |
0% |
60–63 |
60–63 |
59–64 |
58–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
62 |
0% |
60–64 |
60–64 |
59–64 |
58–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
59 |
0% |
57–60 |
57–60 |
57–61 |
55–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
57 |
60 |
0% |
57–61 |
57–61 |
57–61 |
56–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
54 |
57 |
0% |
54–58 |
54–58 |
54–58 |
53–58 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
52 |
52 |
0% |
50–53 |
50–53 |
49–53 |
48–54 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
47 |
48 |
0% |
47–49 |
47–50 |
45–50 |
44–50 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
42 |
44 |
0% |
43–48 |
42–48 |
41–48 |
41–48 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
38 |
37 |
0% |
36–39 |
36–40 |
35–41 |
34–41 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
33 |
32 |
0% |
31–34 |
31–34 |
30–34 |
29–35 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
28 |
28 |
0% |
27–28 |
27–28 |
25–29 |
24–30 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
86 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
89 |
13% |
97% |
Median |
90 |
23% |
84% |
Last Result |
91 |
20% |
61% |
|
92 |
40% |
41% |
|
93 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.8% |
98.5% |
|
84 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
85 |
2% |
97% |
Last Result |
86 |
4% |
95% |
Median |
87 |
67% |
91% |
|
88 |
23% |
24% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
90 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
Majority |
77 |
19% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
78 |
4% |
81% |
|
79 |
8% |
77% |
Median |
80 |
48% |
69% |
|
81 |
16% |
20% |
|
82 |
3% |
4% |
|
83 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
73 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
75 |
20% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
1.0% |
80% |
Median, Majority |
77 |
16% |
78% |
|
78 |
37% |
63% |
|
79 |
3% |
26% |
|
80 |
22% |
22% |
Last Result |
81 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
82 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
18% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
75 |
4% |
81% |
|
76 |
8% |
77% |
Median, Majority |
77 |
48% |
69% |
|
78 |
17% |
20% |
|
79 |
3% |
4% |
|
80 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
1.5% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.9% |
98.5% |
|
74 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
75 |
13% |
97% |
Median |
76 |
24% |
84% |
Last Result, Majority |
77 |
52% |
60% |
|
78 |
7% |
8% |
|
79 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
70 |
19% |
99.0% |
|
71 |
7% |
80% |
Median |
72 |
53% |
73% |
Last Result |
73 |
16% |
21% |
|
74 |
3% |
4% |
|
75 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
Majority |
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
68 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
70 |
31% |
98% |
|
71 |
3% |
67% |
Last Result, Median |
72 |
5% |
64% |
|
73 |
59% |
59% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
65 |
18% |
98.9% |
|
66 |
4% |
81% |
Last Result, Median |
67 |
18% |
77% |
|
68 |
54% |
59% |
|
69 |
5% |
5% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
71 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
59 |
0% |
100% |
|
60 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
62 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
63 |
7% |
98% |
|
64 |
21% |
91% |
|
65 |
37% |
70% |
Median |
66 |
13% |
33% |
|
67 |
5% |
20% |
|
68 |
15% |
16% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
1.5% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
60 |
19% |
97% |
|
61 |
22% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
62 |
35% |
57% |
|
63 |
19% |
22% |
|
64 |
3% |
3% |
|
65 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
56 |
0% |
100% |
|
57 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
58 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
60 |
8% |
97% |
|
61 |
19% |
89% |
Last Result |
62 |
45% |
70% |
Median |
63 |
6% |
24% |
|
64 |
18% |
18% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
57 |
19% |
98% |
|
58 |
22% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
59 |
35% |
57% |
|
60 |
19% |
22% |
|
61 |
3% |
3% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
57 |
18% |
98% |
Last Result |
58 |
21% |
79% |
|
59 |
3% |
59% |
Median |
60 |
37% |
55% |
|
61 |
18% |
18% |
|
62 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
18% |
98% |
Last Result |
55 |
21% |
80% |
|
56 |
3% |
59% |
Median |
57 |
37% |
55% |
|
58 |
18% |
18% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
50 |
34% |
97% |
|
51 |
8% |
63% |
Median |
52 |
34% |
56% |
Last Result |
53 |
21% |
21% |
|
54 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
45 |
2% |
98.6% |
|
46 |
2% |
97% |
|
47 |
16% |
95% |
Last Result |
48 |
35% |
79% |
Median |
49 |
34% |
44% |
|
50 |
9% |
9% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
41 |
4% |
99.5% |
|
42 |
4% |
95% |
Last Result |
43 |
2% |
91% |
|
44 |
52% |
89% |
|
45 |
4% |
37% |
Median |
46 |
14% |
33% |
|
47 |
3% |
18% |
|
48 |
15% |
15% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
35 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
36 |
29% |
97% |
|
37 |
21% |
68% |
Median |
38 |
7% |
47% |
Last Result |
39 |
33% |
41% |
|
40 |
3% |
8% |
|
41 |
4% |
4% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
30 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
31 |
17% |
97% |
|
32 |
39% |
80% |
Median |
33 |
21% |
41% |
Last Result |
34 |
19% |
20% |
|
35 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
26 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
27 |
17% |
96% |
|
28 |
76% |
79% |
Last Result, Median |
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18 June 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.55%