Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 29 June 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 23.1% 21.4–24.9% 21.0–25.4% 20.6–25.8% 19.8–26.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.7% 11.4–14.1% 11.1–14.6% 10.8–14.9% 10.2–15.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.4% 8.9–12.8% 8.4–13.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
DENK 2.1% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%
50Plus 3.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 35 32–36 32–38 32–39 30–40
Democraten 66 19 19 18–21 18–22 17–22 14–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 17–22 17–23 16–23 15–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–18 15–20 15–20 14–22
GroenLinks 14 17 13–19 13–19 13–20 13–20
Partij van de Arbeid 9 8 7–10 6–10 6–10 5–11
Socialistische Partij 14 9 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–8 4–8 4–8 4–9
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 3–8
DENK 3 4 3–4 3–5 3–6 2–6
50Plus 4 3 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 98.9%  
32 16% 98%  
33 3% 82% Last Result
34 16% 79%  
35 49% 63% Median
36 5% 14%  
37 1.0% 9%  
38 4% 8%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.6% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.4%  
16 0.5% 99.1%  
17 3% 98.6%  
18 40% 95%  
19 13% 56% Last Result, Median
20 9% 43%  
21 25% 34%  
22 8% 9%  
23 1.0% 1.3%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.4% 100%  
16 3% 98.6%  
17 11% 95%  
18 8% 85%  
19 10% 76%  
20 9% 66% Last Result
21 29% 57% Median
22 19% 28%  
23 9% 9%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 1.3% 99.8%  
15 31% 98.5%  
16 18% 68% Median
17 3% 50%  
18 38% 47%  
19 2% 9% Last Result
20 6% 7%  
21 0.3% 0.9%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 10% 99.9%  
14 5% 90% Last Result
15 18% 84%  
16 8% 66%  
17 7% 57% Median
18 5% 50%  
19 41% 45%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 7% 98%  
7 37% 92%  
8 30% 55% Median
9 14% 26% Last Result
10 11% 11%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 9% 98%  
7 31% 89%  
8 7% 58%  
9 50% 51% Median
10 0.8% 1.1%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 6% 100%  
5 9% 94% Last Result
6 49% 85% Median
7 24% 36%  
8 11% 13%  
9 1.1% 1.4%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.3% 100%  
4 44% 99.7%  
5 15% 56% Median
6 9% 40%  
7 29% 31%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 7% 98%  
5 60% 91% Last Result, Median
6 23% 31%  
7 6% 7%  
8 1.4% 1.4%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 2% 100%  
3 24% 98% Last Result
4 65% 74% Median
5 7% 10%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 14% 99.9%  
3 55% 86% Median
4 28% 31% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 35% 100%  
2 34% 65% Median
3 28% 30% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 94 100% 91–97 88–98 88–99 88–99
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 84 100% 82–87 82–88 82–90 80–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 93% 76–83 75–84 75–85 73–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 78 64% 73–80 73–82 73–83 71–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 77 79% 73–80 73–80 73–82 73–84
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 77 66% 70–78 68–78 67–79 67–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 72 4% 66–74 66–75 66–77 66–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 71 1.3% 66–73 66–74 66–75 66–76
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 68 0% 63–70 61–71 60–71 60–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 57–65 57–66 57–67 55–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 59–65 59–66 59–66 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 60 0% 55–63 55–64 55–65 53–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 55–61 55–62 55–64 53–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 57–61 57–63 56–63 54–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 57 0% 53–59 53–60 53–62 51–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 52 0% 48–54 48–54 48–55 46–57
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 42–47 42–49 40–49 39–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 40–45 40–45 40–46 38–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 34–39 34–41 33–41 32–42
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 29–32 28–34 28–35 27–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 23–27 21–28 21–28 21–31

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 6% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 94%  
90 0.6% 93% Last Result
91 12% 93%  
92 13% 81%  
93 12% 68% Median
94 11% 56%  
95 3% 46%  
96 31% 42%  
97 2% 12%  
98 7% 10%  
99 3% 3%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 1.3% 99.8%  
81 1.0% 98.5%  
82 12% 98%  
83 8% 86%  
84 30% 78% Median
85 9% 49% Last Result
86 24% 40%  
87 6% 16%  
88 5% 10%  
89 1.3% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.4% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 1.0% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 98.8%  
75 5% 98%  
76 12% 93% Majority
77 16% 82% Last Result
78 2% 65%  
79 42% 63% Median
80 1.4% 21%  
81 6% 20%  
82 1.0% 14%  
83 8% 13%  
84 2% 5%  
85 3% 4%  
86 0.6% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 1.2% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 98.6%  
73 13% 98%  
74 4% 85% Last Result
75 17% 81%  
76 9% 64% Majority
77 4% 55% Median
78 31% 51%  
79 6% 20%  
80 8% 14%  
81 0.9% 6%  
82 2% 5%  
83 3% 3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 12% 99.5%  
74 1.4% 88%  
75 8% 86%  
76 9% 79% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 35% 69%  
78 16% 35%  
79 3% 19%  
80 11% 16%  
81 0.8% 5%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.6% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 2% 99.9%  
68 7% 97%  
69 0.5% 91%  
70 0.9% 90%  
71 4% 89%  
72 3% 86%  
73 8% 83%  
74 7% 75%  
75 2% 68% Median
76 10% 66% Majority
77 39% 55%  
78 14% 16%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.6% 1.3% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.8%  
82 0.4% 0.4%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.1% 99.7%  
66 10% 99.6%  
67 2% 89%  
68 2% 87%  
69 9% 86%  
70 12% 77%  
71 7% 64%  
72 13% 57% Last Result, Median
73 10% 44%  
74 28% 34%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.3% 4% Majority
77 3% 3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 11% 99.6%  
67 1.1% 89%  
68 2% 88%  
69 8% 86%  
70 18% 77% Median
71 30% 59% Last Result
72 1.5% 29%  
73 19% 28%  
74 4% 9%  
75 4% 5%  
76 0.8% 1.3% Majority
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 2% 99.9%  
61 7% 97%  
62 0.6% 91%  
63 1.3% 90%  
64 2% 89%  
65 5% 87%  
66 10% 82% Last Result, Median
67 14% 72%  
68 28% 58%  
69 14% 29%  
70 6% 15%  
71 8% 9%  
72 0.4% 1.4%  
73 0.6% 1.0%  
74 0% 0.4%  
75 0.4% 0.4%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.8% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.2%  
57 10% 99.1%  
58 0.5% 89%  
59 0.2% 88%  
60 11% 88%  
61 31% 77% Last Result, Median
62 11% 46%  
63 2% 35%  
64 19% 33%  
65 6% 13%  
66 4% 8%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.7%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.9% 99.7%  
58 0.8% 98.8%  
59 13% 98%  
60 29% 85%  
61 8% 57% Last Result
62 12% 48% Median
63 13% 37%  
64 6% 24%  
65 11% 18%  
66 6% 7%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.8% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.2%  
55 10% 99.1%  
56 0.3% 89%  
57 8% 88%  
58 0.4% 80% Last Result
59 18% 80% Median
60 28% 62%  
61 8% 34%  
62 9% 25%  
63 8% 16%  
64 4% 8%  
65 3% 4%  
66 0.3% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 1.0%  
68 0.5% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.9% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.1%  
55 11% 98.8%  
56 3% 88%  
57 12% 85% Last Result
58 27% 73% Median
59 11% 46%  
60 15% 34%  
61 10% 19%  
62 6% 9%  
63 0.4% 3%  
64 0.6% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.9% 1.5%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 98.8%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 23% 97%  
58 9% 74%  
59 10% 65% Median
60 43% 55%  
61 4% 12% Last Result
62 2% 8%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.6% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.8% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.1%  
53 11% 98.8%  
54 8% 88% Last Result
55 6% 80%  
56 12% 74% Median
57 36% 62%  
58 5% 26%  
59 13% 22%  
60 5% 9%  
61 0.7% 3%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.5%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 1.0% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 98.9%  
48 11% 98.6%  
49 12% 88%  
50 16% 76%  
51 8% 61% Median
52 11% 53% Last Result
53 31% 42%  
54 8% 11%  
55 1.5% 4%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.8% 1.2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 1.4% 97%  
42 14% 96%  
43 41% 82% Median
44 11% 41%  
45 8% 30%  
46 10% 22%  
47 2% 12% Last Result
48 2% 10%  
49 7% 8%  
50 0% 0.5%  
51 0% 0.4%  
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.8%  
39 0.5% 98%  
40 8% 98%  
41 16% 90%  
42 41% 74% Last Result
43 12% 33% Median
44 2% 21%  
45 16% 19%  
46 1.0% 3%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.8%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 19% 97%  
35 12% 77% Median
36 39% 65%  
37 5% 26%  
38 5% 21% Last Result
39 9% 16%  
40 1.4% 7%  
41 5% 6%  
42 0.5% 0.5%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 1.0% 99.6%  
28 8% 98.6%  
29 12% 91%  
30 3% 79% Median
31 46% 76%  
32 21% 30%  
33 3% 9% Last Result
34 3% 6%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.1% 0.7%  
37 0.6% 0.6%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 6% 99.6%  
22 1.0% 94%  
23 21% 93%  
24 7% 72% Median
25 50% 65%  
26 3% 15%  
27 2% 12%  
28 8% 10% Last Result
29 0.6% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.9%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations