Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 2 July 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.3% |
22.0% |
21.0–23.0% |
20.8–23.3% |
20.5–23.5% |
20.1–24.0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
13.1% |
14.0% |
13.2–14.8% |
13.0–15.1% |
12.8–15.3% |
12.4–15.7% |
Democraten 66 |
12.2% |
13.3% |
12.6–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.2–14.6% |
11.8–15.0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
12.4% |
10.7% |
10.0–11.4% |
9.8–11.6% |
9.6–11.8% |
9.3–12.2% |
GroenLinks |
9.1% |
8.7% |
8.0–9.4% |
7.8–9.6% |
7.7–9.7% |
7.4–10.1% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
8.0% |
7.4–8.7% |
7.2–8.9% |
7.1–9.0% |
6.8–9.4% |
Socialistische Partij |
9.1% |
7.3% |
6.8–8.0% |
6.6–8.2% |
6.4–8.3% |
6.2–8.6% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.2% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Forum voor Democratie |
1.8% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
50Plus |
3.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
DENK |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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
Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
7% |
98% |
|
33 |
84% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
7% |
7% |
|
35 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
20 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
21 |
86% |
98% |
Median |
22 |
11% |
12% |
|
23 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
2% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
20 |
4% |
98% |
|
21 |
89% |
94% |
Median |
22 |
5% |
5% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
14 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
17 |
89% |
95% |
Median |
18 |
6% |
6% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
11 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
12 |
89% |
99.5% |
Median |
13 |
4% |
11% |
|
14 |
6% |
6% |
Last Result |
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
10 |
3% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
12 |
91% |
97% |
Median |
13 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
14 |
4% |
4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
10 |
0.7% |
99.1% |
|
11 |
9% |
98% |
|
12 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
13 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
8% |
100% |
|
5 |
89% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
3% |
3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
91% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
8% |
9% |
Last Result |
6 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
5 |
98.8% |
99.4% |
Median |
6 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
92% |
99.9% |
Median |
3 |
7% |
7% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
9% |
100% |
|
3 |
91% |
91% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
11% |
100% |
|
3 |
88% |
89% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
90 |
88 |
100% |
88 |
87–89 |
85–90 |
85–90 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
85 |
88 |
100% |
87–88 |
87–88 |
87–88 |
83–89 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie |
80 |
79 |
99.3% |
79 |
77–80 |
77–80 |
75–81 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
79 |
99.9% |
79 |
78–79 |
77–80 |
77–82 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
76 |
93% |
76 |
75–77 |
74–78 |
74–79 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
76 |
76 |
89% |
75–76 |
74–76 |
73–77 |
72–77 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
72 |
71 |
0% |
71 |
70–72 |
69–73 |
69–74 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
71 |
71 |
0% |
71 |
69–71 |
68–72 |
67–73 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
66 |
67 |
0% |
67 |
66–69 |
65–69 |
64–70 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
66 |
0% |
66 |
65–66 |
65–68 |
62–68 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
62 |
0% |
62 |
61–62 |
60–62 |
59–65 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
61 |
60 |
0% |
59–60 |
59–60 |
59–60 |
58–63 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
57 |
0% |
57 |
56–57 |
56–58 |
56–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
57 |
58 |
0% |
57–58 |
56–58 |
56–58 |
56–61 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
54 |
55 |
0% |
55 |
53–55 |
53–56 |
53–58 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
47 |
50 |
0% |
50 |
49–51 |
48–51 |
46–51 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
52 |
50 |
0% |
50 |
48–50 |
48–51 |
48–53 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
42 |
45 |
0% |
44–45 |
44–46 |
43–48 |
43–48 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
38 |
38 |
0% |
38 |
36–39 |
34–39 |
34–39 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
33 |
34 |
0% |
34 |
33–34 |
31–35 |
31–36 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
28 |
29 |
0% |
29 |
28–30 |
27–30 |
27–31 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
85 |
4% |
100% |
|
86 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
87 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
88 |
86% |
95% |
Median |
89 |
5% |
9% |
|
90 |
3% |
3% |
Last Result |
91 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
83 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
84 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
85 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
86 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
87 |
11% |
98.7% |
|
88 |
86% |
88% |
Median |
89 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
Majority |
77 |
6% |
98% |
|
78 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
79 |
84% |
92% |
Median |
80 |
6% |
8% |
Last Result |
81 |
2% |
2% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
Majority |
77 |
3% |
99.6% |
Last Result |
78 |
4% |
97% |
|
79 |
89% |
92% |
Median |
80 |
2% |
3% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
82 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
2% |
99.5% |
Last Result |
75 |
4% |
97% |
|
76 |
85% |
93% |
Median, Majority |
77 |
5% |
8% |
|
78 |
3% |
3% |
|
79 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
73 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
74 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
75 |
5% |
94% |
|
76 |
86% |
89% |
Last Result, Median, Majority |
77 |
4% |
4% |
|
78 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
69 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
70 |
4% |
97% |
|
71 |
85% |
93% |
Median |
72 |
5% |
8% |
Last Result |
73 |
3% |
3% |
|
74 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
69 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
70 |
2% |
94% |
|
71 |
88% |
92% |
Last Result, Median |
72 |
2% |
4% |
|
73 |
2% |
2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
66 |
3% |
96% |
Last Result |
67 |
84% |
93% |
Median |
68 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
69 |
7% |
8% |
|
70 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
62 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
64 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
65 |
7% |
98% |
|
66 |
87% |
92% |
Median |
67 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
68 |
4% |
4% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
61 |
2% |
97% |
Last Result |
62 |
92% |
94% |
Median |
63 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
65 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
11% |
98% |
|
60 |
86% |
88% |
Median |
61 |
0.1% |
2% |
Last Result |
62 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
63 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
56 |
7% |
99.6% |
|
57 |
88% |
92% |
Median |
58 |
3% |
4% |
Last Result |
59 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
60 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
7% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
5% |
93% |
Last Result |
58 |
86% |
87% |
Median |
59 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
6% |
99.6% |
|
54 |
2% |
94% |
Last Result |
55 |
88% |
92% |
Median |
56 |
4% |
4% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
58 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
Last Result |
48 |
4% |
99.2% |
|
49 |
4% |
95% |
|
50 |
84% |
92% |
Median |
51 |
8% |
8% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
48 |
6% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
2% |
94% |
|
50 |
88% |
92% |
Median |
51 |
3% |
4% |
|
52 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
43 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
7% |
97% |
|
45 |
84% |
90% |
Median |
46 |
1.5% |
6% |
|
47 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
48 |
4% |
4% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
34 |
3% |
100% |
|
35 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
36 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
37 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
38 |
84% |
93% |
Last Result, Median |
39 |
9% |
10% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
33 |
4% |
96% |
Last Result |
34 |
89% |
92% |
Median |
35 |
3% |
4% |
|
36 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
25 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
28 |
4% |
97% |
Last Result |
29 |
85% |
93% |
Median |
30 |
7% |
7% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2 July 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.92%