Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 2 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.0% 13.2–14.8% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 33 32–34 32–34 31–35
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 21–22 21–22 21–22 20–23
Democraten 66 19 21 21 20–21 20–22 19–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 17 17–18 14–18 14–18
GroenLinks 14 12 12–13 12–14 12–14 11–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 12 12–13 10–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–12 11–12 11–12 9–13
ChristenUnie 5 5 5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4 4–5 4–5 4–6
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5 5 5 4–6
50Plus 4 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 7% 98%  
33 84% 91% Last Result, Median
34 7% 7%  
35 0.7% 0.8%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.5% Last Result
21 86% 98% Median
22 11% 12%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9% Last Result
20 4% 98%  
21 89% 94% Median
22 5% 5%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.9%  
15 0.4% 97%  
16 1.2% 96%  
17 89% 95% Median
18 6% 6%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 89% 99.5% Median
13 4% 11%  
14 6% 6% Last Result
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0% 100% Last Result
10 3% 100%  
11 0.8% 97%  
12 91% 97% Median
13 1.2% 5%  
14 4% 4%  
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.9% 100%  
10 0.7% 99.1%  
11 9% 98%  
12 89% 89% Median
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100%  
5 89% 92% Last Result, Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 91% 100% Median
5 8% 9% Last Result
6 0.9% 1.1%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.6% 100%  
5 98.8% 99.4% Median
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 92% 99.9% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
5 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 91% 91% Last Result, Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 11% 100%  
3 88% 89% Last Result, Median
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 88 87–89 85–90 85–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 88 100% 87–88 87–88 87–88 83–89
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 79 99.3% 79 77–80 77–80 75–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 99.9% 79 78–79 77–80 77–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 76 93% 76 75–77 74–78 74–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 76 89% 75–76 74–76 73–77 72–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 0% 71 70–72 69–73 69–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 71 0% 71 69–71 68–72 67–73
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 67 66–69 65–69 64–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 66 0% 66 65–66 65–68 62–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 62 61–62 60–62 59–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 59–60 59–60 59–60 58–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 57 56–57 56–58 56–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 57–58 56–58 56–58 56–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 55 53–55 53–56 53–58
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 50 0% 50 49–51 48–51 46–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 50 48–50 48–51 48–53
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 45 0% 44–45 44–46 43–48 43–48
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 38 0% 38 36–39 34–39 34–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 34 33–34 31–35 31–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 29 28–30 27–30 27–31

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 4% 100%  
86 1.0% 96%  
87 0.2% 95%  
88 86% 95% Median
89 5% 9%  
90 3% 3% Last Result
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.5% 99.9%  
84 0% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
86 0.2% 98.9%  
87 11% 98.7%  
88 86% 88% Median
89 1.1% 1.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.6% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.3% Majority
77 6% 98%  
78 0.5% 92%  
79 84% 92% Median
80 6% 8% Last Result
81 2% 2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9% Majority
77 3% 99.6% Last Result
78 4% 97%  
79 89% 92% Median
80 2% 3%  
81 0.2% 0.9%  
82 0.6% 0.7%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.5% Last Result
75 4% 97%  
76 85% 93% Median, Majority
77 5% 8%  
78 3% 3%  
79 0.7% 0.7%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.6% 100%  
73 4% 99.4%  
74 1.4% 96%  
75 5% 94%  
76 86% 89% Last Result, Median, Majority
77 4% 4%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.4% 100%  
69 2% 99.6%  
70 4% 97%  
71 85% 93% Median
72 5% 8% Last Result
73 3% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.5%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.5% 99.9%  
68 4% 99.4%  
69 0.9% 95%  
70 2% 94%  
71 88% 92% Last Result, Median
72 2% 4%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.5% 99.9%  
65 4% 99.3%  
66 3% 96% Last Result
67 84% 93% Median
68 0.5% 8%  
69 7% 8%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100% Last Result
62 0.5% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.5%  
64 0.8% 99.2%  
65 7% 98%  
66 87% 92% Median
67 0.6% 5%  
68 4% 4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.7% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.2%  
61 2% 97% Last Result
62 92% 94% Median
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.3% 1.0%  
65 0.6% 0.6%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 2% 99.9%  
59 11% 98%  
60 86% 88% Median
61 0.1% 2% Last Result
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 7% 99.6%  
57 88% 92% Median
58 3% 4% Last Result
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 7% 99.7%  
57 5% 93% Last Result
58 86% 87% Median
59 1.0% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.7%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 6% 99.6%  
54 2% 94% Last Result
55 88% 92% Median
56 4% 4%  
57 0.2% 0.7%  
58 0.5% 0.5%  
59 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
48 4% 99.2%  
49 4% 95%  
50 84% 92% Median
51 8% 8%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 6% 99.7%  
49 2% 94%  
50 88% 92% Median
51 3% 4%  
52 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
53 0.5% 0.5%  
54 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100% Last Result
43 3% 99.9%  
44 7% 97%  
45 84% 90% Median
46 1.5% 6%  
47 0.6% 4%  
48 4% 4%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 3% 100%  
35 0.6% 97%  
36 1.3% 96%  
37 1.3% 95%  
38 84% 93% Last Result, Median
39 9% 10%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 97%  
33 4% 96% Last Result
34 89% 92% Median
35 3% 4%  
36 1.2% 1.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.8%  
28 4% 97% Last Result
29 85% 93% Median
30 7% 7%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations