Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 12 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.6% 19.0–22.4% 18.6–22.9% 18.2–23.4% 17.5–24.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.3% 13.9–16.9% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.7% 12.5–18.5%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.7% 11.4–14.2% 11.0–14.6% 10.7–15.0% 10.1–15.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.5% 8.9–14.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.8% 8.3–13.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.3%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 31 30–35 28–35 28–36 25–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 23 21–26 21–26 20–26 19–27
Democraten 66 19 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
GroenLinks 14 16 15–20 15–20 15–20 13–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 13–18 13–18 13–19 12–19
Socialistische Partij 14 13 12–16 12–16 12–16 10–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 6–12
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
50Plus 4 2 2–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 4 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
DENK 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.7% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.2%  
27 1.0% 99.0%  
28 4% 98%  
29 0.8% 94%  
30 26% 93%  
31 32% 66% Median
32 13% 35%  
33 2% 22% Last Result
34 0.9% 20%  
35 16% 19%  
36 1.3% 3%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.4% Last Result
21 17% 97%  
22 13% 80%  
23 38% 67% Median
24 8% 29%  
25 2% 21%  
26 18% 19%  
27 0.9% 1.3%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 32% 96%  
18 13% 63%  
19 12% 51% Last Result, Median
20 7% 38%  
21 28% 31%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.8% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
15 17% 98.7%  
16 45% 82% Median
17 14% 37%  
18 6% 23%  
19 1.5% 17%  
20 15% 16%  
21 0.3% 1.2%  
22 0.9% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 13% 99.1%  
14 2% 87%  
15 20% 85%  
16 19% 65% Median
17 24% 46%  
18 17% 21%  
19 4% 4% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.8% 100%  
11 2% 99.1%  
12 20% 98%  
13 36% 77% Median
14 17% 41% Last Result
15 1.0% 23%  
16 20% 22%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 3% 99.3%  
8 14% 96%  
9 45% 83% Last Result, Median
10 12% 38%  
11 24% 25%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 45% 98%  
5 27% 53% Last Result, Median
6 18% 26%  
7 7% 8%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 20% 100%  
4 18% 80%  
5 32% 62% Last Result, Median
6 29% 31%  
7 0.9% 1.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100% Last Result
3 23% 94%  
4 54% 71% Median
5 17% 17%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100%  
2 55% 93% Median
3 20% 39%  
4 19% 19% Last Result
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100%  
2 29% 85%  
3 5% 56% Last Result
4 49% 51% Median
5 1.4% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 44% 99.5%  
2 34% 55% Median
3 21% 22% Last Result
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 82–92 82–92 82–94 82–95
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 81 95% 77–85 76–85 74–86 73–87
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 79 82% 75–83 75–84 75–84 74–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 66% 74–81 73–81 73–81 71–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 38% 71–78 71–78 70–78 69–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 17% 67–76 67–76 65–76 64–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 2% 67–74 67–74 67–74 65–77
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 62–70 62–71 62–71 60–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 67 0.1% 63–70 62–70 61–71 59–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 59–62 56–63 53–64 53–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 53–62 53–62 51–62 48–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 57 0% 54–61 52–61 52–61 49–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 53 0% 50–59 50–59 50–59 47–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 51–59 50–59 49–59 46–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 51 0% 49–57 48–57 46–57 44–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 45–53 44–53 43–53 40–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 44 0% 40–48 40–48 40–48 39–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 39–44 37–44 36–45 33–48
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 32–38 32–39 32–39 30–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 26–33 26–34 26–34 26–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 21–27 21–28 21–28 20–29

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 16% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 84%  
84 1.4% 83%  
85 4% 82%  
86 12% 78%  
87 1.1% 65% Median
88 21% 64%  
89 0.7% 44%  
90 17% 43% Last Result
91 2% 26%  
92 21% 25%  
93 0.8% 4%  
94 3% 3%  
95 0.6% 0.6%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.5% 100%  
74 3% 99.4%  
75 1.1% 96%  
76 0.3% 95% Majority
77 13% 95%  
78 16% 82%  
79 2% 66%  
80 11% 64% Median
81 21% 53%  
82 0.8% 32%  
83 5% 31%  
84 0.6% 26%  
85 22% 25% Last Result
86 2% 3%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0% 0.3%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 1.3% 99.7%  
75 16% 98%  
76 12% 82% Majority
77 0.5% 70%  
78 3% 69% Median
79 19% 67%  
80 0.7% 48% Last Result
81 12% 47%  
82 1.0% 35%  
83 28% 34%  
84 5% 6%  
85 0.3% 1.0%  
86 0.6% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.1%  
73 4% 98%  
74 10% 94%  
75 18% 84%  
76 8% 66% Majority
77 2% 58% Last Result
78 20% 56% Median
79 1.0% 35%  
80 16% 34%  
81 17% 19%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.7%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.8% 99.8%  
70 3% 99.0%  
71 14% 96%  
72 3% 82%  
73 17% 79%  
74 19% 62% Last Result, Median
75 5% 42%  
76 3% 38% Majority
77 16% 34%  
78 16% 18%  
79 1.3% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.9%  
81 0.6% 0.6%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.7% 100%  
65 3% 99.3%  
66 0.3% 96%  
67 16% 96%  
68 1.1% 79%  
69 13% 78%  
70 11% 65%  
71 0.3% 54% Median
72 21% 54%  
73 0.5% 33%  
74 12% 32%  
75 3% 20%  
76 16% 17% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.9%  
78 0.5% 0.8%  
79 0.3% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 0.6% 99.1%  
67 14% 98.5%  
68 6% 85%  
69 0.6% 79%  
70 36% 78% Median
71 0.8% 42%  
72 18% 42% Last Result
73 6% 23%  
74 16% 18%  
75 0.2% 2%  
76 1.0% 2% Majority
77 0.8% 0.9%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.6% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.3%  
62 28% 98.7%  
63 1.1% 71%  
64 1.5% 70%  
65 1.3% 69% Median
66 20% 67% Last Result
67 21% 47%  
68 0.9% 26%  
69 11% 25%  
70 5% 14%  
71 7% 8%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.8%  
60 0.1% 99.3%  
61 3% 99.2%  
62 2% 96%  
63 17% 94%  
64 13% 78%  
65 11% 64%  
66 0.8% 53% Median
67 7% 53%  
68 20% 46%  
69 0.3% 26%  
70 22% 25%  
71 1.0% 3% Last Result
72 1.1% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 3% 100%  
54 1.4% 97%  
55 0.2% 95%  
56 1.2% 95%  
57 0.5% 94%  
58 2% 93%  
59 38% 91% Median
60 23% 53%  
61 16% 30% Last Result
62 7% 14%  
63 2% 6%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 1.0% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.5% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.5%  
50 1.3% 99.4%  
51 0.6% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 12% 96%  
54 4% 84%  
55 1.2% 80%  
56 19% 79% Median
57 34% 59%  
58 0.7% 25%  
59 5% 24%  
60 2% 19%  
61 0.3% 17% Last Result
62 16% 17%  
63 0% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 1.3%  
65 1.0% 1.0%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.5% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.4%  
51 1.1% 99.3%  
52 8% 98%  
53 0.2% 91%  
54 12% 90%  
55 2% 78%  
56 6% 76%  
57 50% 70% Median
58 0.6% 21%  
59 0.4% 20%  
60 1.0% 20%  
61 16% 19% Last Result
62 2% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.7%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.8% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.2%  
49 0.9% 98.9%  
50 8% 98%  
51 1.5% 90%  
52 3% 88%  
53 59% 85% Median
54 0.6% 26%  
55 4% 26%  
56 2% 21%  
57 0.5% 20%  
58 1.1% 19% Last Result
59 16% 18%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.6% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.4%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 0.7% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 17% 95%  
52 0.6% 78%  
53 20% 78%  
54 3% 58%  
55 35% 55% Median
56 0.8% 20%  
57 1.2% 19% Last Result
58 0.6% 18%  
59 17% 17%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.6% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.3%  
46 2% 99.1%  
47 0.8% 97%  
48 2% 96%  
49 21% 94%  
50 12% 73%  
51 35% 61% Median
52 5% 26%  
53 1.4% 21%  
54 0.6% 19% Last Result
55 1.4% 19%  
56 0.6% 18%  
57 17% 17%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.5% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.4%  
42 0.3% 99.0%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 2% 97%  
45 15% 95%  
46 23% 80%  
47 30% 57% Median
48 2% 27%  
49 2% 25%  
50 4% 23%  
51 2% 19%  
52 0.3% 17% Last Result
53 16% 17%  
54 1.0% 1.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 12% 99.2%  
41 3% 87%  
42 4% 84%  
43 17% 81%  
44 28% 64% Median
45 0.8% 36%  
46 3% 35%  
47 19% 32% Last Result
48 11% 12%  
49 0.3% 2%  
50 1.1% 1.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.5% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.4%  
35 1.0% 99.1%  
36 0.5% 98%  
37 4% 97%  
38 2% 94%  
39 20% 92%  
40 16% 72% Median
41 17% 56%  
42 19% 39% Last Result
43 0.8% 20%  
44 16% 19%  
45 1.4% 3%  
46 0.1% 1.5%  
47 0.1% 1.4%  
48 1.3% 1.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 98.6%  
32 28% 98%  
33 3% 70%  
34 12% 67%  
35 18% 55% Median
36 3% 37%  
37 8% 34%  
38 20% 26% Last Result
39 6% 6%  
40 0% 0.3%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.7%  
26 12% 99.6%  
27 2% 88%  
28 5% 86%  
29 2% 82%  
30 38% 80% Median
31 13% 41%  
32 5% 29%  
33 16% 24% Last Result
34 7% 8%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 1.2% 100%  
21 12% 98.7%  
22 1.0% 87%  
23 2% 86%  
24 4% 84%  
25 2% 79% Median
26 48% 77%  
27 22% 29%  
28 5% 7% Last Result
29 1.3% 1.4%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations