Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 16 July 2017
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
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Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie |
21.3% |
22.0% |
21.0–23.0% |
20.8–23.3% |
20.5–23.5% |
20.1–24.0% |
Partij voor de Vrijheid |
13.1% |
14.0% |
13.2–14.8% |
13.0–15.1% |
12.8–15.3% |
12.4–15.7% |
Democraten 66 |
12.2% |
13.3% |
12.6–14.2% |
12.3–14.4% |
12.2–14.6% |
11.8–15.0% |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
12.4% |
10.7% |
10.0–11.4% |
9.8–11.6% |
9.6–11.8% |
9.3–12.2% |
GroenLinks |
9.1% |
8.7% |
8.0–9.4% |
7.8–9.6% |
7.7–9.7% |
7.4–10.1% |
Socialistische Partij |
9.1% |
7.3% |
6.8–8.0% |
6.6–8.2% |
6.4–8.3% |
6.2–8.6% |
Partij van de Arbeid |
5.7% |
7.3% |
6.8–8.0% |
6.6–8.2% |
6.4–8.3% |
6.2–8.6% |
Forum voor Democratie |
1.8% |
4.0% |
3.6–4.5% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.4–4.8% |
3.2–5.0% |
ChristenUnie |
3.4% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
Partij voor de Dieren |
3.2% |
3.3% |
2.9–3.8% |
2.8–3.9% |
2.7–4.0% |
2.6–4.3% |
50Plus |
3.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
DENK |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.7–2.4% |
1.6–2.5% |
1.6–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
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Confidence Intervals
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
32 |
18% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
42% |
82% |
Last Result, Median |
34 |
13% |
40% |
|
35 |
25% |
27% |
|
36 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Vrijheid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
Last Result |
21 |
28% |
99.1% |
|
22 |
11% |
71% |
|
23 |
58% |
60% |
Median |
24 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
17 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
18 |
24% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
5% |
76% |
Last Result |
20 |
58% |
71% |
Median |
21 |
13% |
13% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
13 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
37% |
97% |
|
16 |
18% |
61% |
Median |
17 |
40% |
43% |
|
18 |
2% |
2% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
GroenLinks
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
2% |
100% |
|
13 |
96% |
98% |
Median |
14 |
1.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Socialistische Partij
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
41% |
100% |
|
11 |
21% |
59% |
Median |
12 |
36% |
38% |
|
13 |
2% |
2% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partij van de Arbeid
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
0.2% |
100% |
Last Result |
10 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
11 |
55% |
98% |
Median |
12 |
20% |
44% |
|
13 |
23% |
23% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forum voor Democratie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
5 |
69% |
99.9% |
Median |
6 |
7% |
31% |
|
7 |
24% |
24% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
ChristenUnie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.
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Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
4 |
26% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
62% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
6 |
12% |
12% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partij voor de Dieren
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
4 |
96% |
100% |
Median |
5 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
6 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
50Plus
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
2 |
15% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
85% |
85% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
13% |
100% |
|
3 |
87% |
87% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
DENK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
2 |
26% |
100% |
|
3 |
73% |
74% |
Last Result, Median |
4 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
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Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie |
90 |
88 |
100% |
85–89 |
85–89 |
85–89 |
84–90 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
85 |
86 |
100% |
85–87 |
85–87 |
84–87 |
83–88 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
77 |
81 |
100% |
78–81 |
78–81 |
78–82 |
78–83 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
74 |
78 |
98% |
76–78 |
76–78 |
76–79 |
75–81 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie |
80 |
76 |
74% |
75–78 |
75–78 |
75–78 |
73–79 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie |
76 |
75 |
12% |
72–76 |
72–76 |
72–76 |
71–77 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
72 |
71 |
0% |
71–73 |
71–73 |
70–74 |
69–74 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
71 |
70 |
0% |
68–70 |
68–70 |
68–70 |
67–72 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
66 |
66 |
0% |
63–66 |
63–66 |
63–66 |
61–67 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
64 |
0% |
64–66 |
64–66 |
63–66 |
61–68 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
61 |
61 |
0% |
60–63 |
60–63 |
60–63 |
58–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
61 |
61 |
0% |
58–63 |
58–63 |
58–63 |
58–64 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus |
58 |
58 |
0% |
56–60 |
56–60 |
56–60 |
55–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij |
57 |
58 |
0% |
56–60 |
56–60 |
56–60 |
56–62 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie |
54 |
55 |
0% |
53–57 |
53–57 |
53–57 |
53–60 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
52 |
50 |
0% |
48–50 |
48–50 |
48–51 |
47–53 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
47 |
48 |
0% |
46–48 |
46–48 |
45–48 |
43–48 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid |
42 |
44 |
0% |
44–48 |
44–48 |
44–48 |
42–48 |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl |
38 |
36 |
0% |
33–37 |
33–37 |
33–37 |
33–37 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie |
33 |
33 |
0% |
32–33 |
31–33 |
30–34 |
30–35 |
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid |
28 |
28 |
0% |
26–28 |
26–28 |
26–29 |
25–29 |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
84 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
85 |
24% |
99.0% |
|
86 |
19% |
75% |
|
87 |
2% |
57% |
Median |
88 |
42% |
54% |
|
89 |
11% |
12% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
91 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
82 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
83 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
84 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
85 |
41% |
97% |
Last Result, Median |
86 |
44% |
56% |
|
87 |
12% |
13% |
|
88 |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
77 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
78 |
13% |
99.8% |
|
79 |
20% |
87% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
67% |
Median |
81 |
64% |
67% |
|
82 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
83 |
2% |
2% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.1% |
100% |
Last Result |
75 |
2% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
30% |
98% |
Majority |
77 |
1.1% |
68% |
Median |
78 |
64% |
67% |
|
79 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
80 |
2% |
2% |
|
81 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
74 |
1.2% |
99.2% |
|
75 |
25% |
98% |
|
76 |
43% |
74% |
Median, Majority |
77 |
19% |
31% |
|
78 |
11% |
12% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
71 |
1.0% |
100% |
|
72 |
24% |
99.0% |
|
73 |
18% |
75% |
|
74 |
1.3% |
57% |
Median |
75 |
43% |
55% |
|
76 |
11% |
12% |
Last Result, Majority |
77 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
78 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
79 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
69 |
0.9% |
100% |
|
70 |
3% |
99.1% |
|
71 |
53% |
96% |
|
72 |
1.4% |
43% |
Last Result, Median |
73 |
39% |
42% |
|
74 |
3% |
3% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
2% |
100% |
|
68 |
41% |
98% |
|
69 |
0.8% |
57% |
Median |
70 |
55% |
56% |
|
71 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
Last Result |
72 |
0.8% |
1.1% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
62 |
1.1% |
99.3% |
|
63 |
26% |
98% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
73% |
|
65 |
2% |
72% |
Median |
66 |
69% |
70% |
Last Result |
67 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
62 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
63 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
64 |
58% |
97% |
Median |
65 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
66 |
35% |
38% |
|
67 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
68 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
70 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.7% |
99.6% |
|
59 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
60 |
30% |
98.7% |
Median |
61 |
41% |
68% |
Last Result |
62 |
3% |
27% |
|
63 |
24% |
24% |
|
64 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
58 |
11% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
17% |
89% |
|
60 |
4% |
71% |
Median |
61 |
40% |
67% |
Last Result |
62 |
3% |
27% |
|
63 |
24% |
25% |
|
64 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
54 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
28% |
99.5% |
|
57 |
3% |
71% |
Median |
58 |
41% |
68% |
Last Result |
59 |
3% |
27% |
|
60 |
24% |
24% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
62 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
55 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
56 |
28% |
99.9% |
|
57 |
3% |
72% |
Last Result, Median |
58 |
41% |
69% |
|
59 |
1.1% |
27% |
|
60 |
25% |
26% |
|
61 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
62 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
18% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
14% |
82% |
Last Result, Median |
55 |
40% |
69% |
|
56 |
2% |
28% |
|
57 |
25% |
26% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
60 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
48 |
19% |
99.5% |
|
49 |
13% |
81% |
Median |
50 |
64% |
67% |
|
51 |
2% |
3% |
|
52 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
53 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.7% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
45 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
46 |
25% |
97% |
|
47 |
13% |
73% |
Last Result, Median |
48 |
59% |
60% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.7% |
100% |
Last Result |
43 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
44 |
58% |
99.0% |
Median |
45 |
14% |
41% |
|
46 |
1.1% |
27% |
|
47 |
2% |
26% |
|
48 |
23% |
23% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
33 |
24% |
99.7% |
|
34 |
2% |
76% |
|
35 |
2% |
74% |
|
36 |
30% |
72% |
Median |
37 |
42% |
42% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
Last Result |
39 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
3% |
99.5% |
|
31 |
3% |
97% |
|
32 |
35% |
94% |
Median |
33 |
56% |
60% |
Last Result |
34 |
2% |
3% |
|
35 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
25 |
1.1% |
99.5% |
|
26 |
14% |
98% |
|
27 |
1.2% |
84% |
Median |
28 |
80% |
83% |
Last Result |
29 |
3% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Peil.nl
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16 July 2017
Calculations
- Sample size: 3000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.39%