Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 16 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.0% 21.0–23.0% 20.8–23.3% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–24.0%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.0% 13.2–14.8% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 33 32–35 32–35 32–35 32–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 23 21–23 21–23 21–23 20–24
Democraten 66 19 20 18–21 18–21 18–21 18–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–17 15–17 14–17 14–18
GroenLinks 14 13 13 13 13 12–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 11–13 11–13 11–13 10–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4 4 4–5 4–5
50Plus 4 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 18% 99.9%  
33 42% 82% Last Result, Median
34 13% 40%  
35 25% 27%  
36 1.5% 2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
21 28% 99.1%  
22 11% 71%  
23 58% 60% Median
24 1.2% 1.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 24% 99.7%  
19 5% 76% Last Result
20 58% 71% Median
21 13% 13%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 37% 97%  
16 18% 61% Median
17 40% 43%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 2% 100%  
13 96% 98% Median
14 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 41% 100%  
11 21% 59% Median
12 36% 38%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 1.4% 99.8%  
11 55% 98% Median
12 20% 44%  
13 23% 23%  
14 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 69% 99.9% Median
6 7% 31%  
7 24% 24%  
8 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 26% 99.9%  
5 62% 74% Last Result, Median
6 12% 12%  
7 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 96% 100% Median
5 4% 4% Last Result
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 15% 99.9%  
3 85% 85% Median
4 0% 0% Last Result

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 87% 87% Last Result, Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 26% 100%  
3 73% 74% Last Result, Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 85–89 85–89 85–89 84–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 86 100% 85–87 85–87 84–87 83–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 81 100% 78–81 78–81 78–82 78–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 78 98% 76–78 76–78 76–79 75–81
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 74% 75–78 75–78 75–78 73–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 75 12% 72–76 72–76 72–76 71–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 0% 71–73 71–73 70–74 69–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 70 0% 68–70 68–70 68–70 67–72
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 63–66 63–66 63–66 61–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 64 0% 64–66 64–66 63–66 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 60–63 60–63 60–63 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 58–63 58–63 58–63 58–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–60 56–60 56–60 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–60 56–60 56–60 56–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–57 53–57 53–57 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 48–50 48–50 48–51 47–53
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 48 0% 46–48 46–48 45–48 43–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 44–48 44–48 44–48 42–48
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 33–37 33–37 33–37 33–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–33 31–33 30–34 30–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 26–28 26–28 26–29 25–29

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 1.0% 100%  
85 24% 99.0%  
86 19% 75%  
87 2% 57% Median
88 42% 54%  
89 11% 12%  
90 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.4% 100%  
83 2% 99.6%  
84 0.2% 98%  
85 41% 97% Last Result, Median
86 44% 56%  
87 12% 13%  
88 0.9% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100% Last Result
78 13% 99.8%  
79 20% 87%  
80 0.2% 67% Median
81 64% 67%  
82 0.7% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100% Last Result
75 2% 99.8%  
76 30% 98% Majority
77 1.1% 68% Median
78 64% 67%  
79 0.7% 3%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.8% 0.8%  
82 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 99.2%  
75 25% 98%  
76 43% 74% Median, Majority
77 19% 31%  
78 11% 12%  
79 0.6% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 1.0% 100%  
72 24% 99.0%  
73 18% 75%  
74 1.3% 57% Median
75 43% 55%  
76 11% 12% Last Result, Majority
77 0.9% 1.1%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.9% 100%  
70 3% 99.1%  
71 53% 96%  
72 1.4% 43% Last Result, Median
73 39% 42%  
74 3% 3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 2% 100%  
68 41% 98%  
69 0.8% 57% Median
70 55% 56%  
71 0.3% 1.4% Last Result
72 0.8% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.7% 100%  
62 1.1% 99.3%  
63 26% 98%  
64 0.4% 73%  
65 2% 72% Median
66 69% 70% Last Result
67 0.8% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.7% 100% Last Result
62 0.2% 99.3%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 58% 97% Median
65 0.9% 39%  
66 35% 38%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 1.2% 1.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.4% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 0.2% 98.9%  
60 30% 98.7% Median
61 41% 68% Last Result
62 3% 27%  
63 24% 24%  
64 0.8% 0.8%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 11% 99.9%  
59 17% 89%  
60 4% 71% Median
61 40% 67% Last Result
62 3% 27%  
63 24% 25%  
64 0.8% 0.8%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 28% 99.5%  
57 3% 71% Median
58 41% 68% Last Result
59 3% 27%  
60 24% 24%  
61 0.1% 0.9%  
62 0.7% 0.8%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 28% 99.9%  
57 3% 72% Last Result, Median
58 41% 69%  
59 1.1% 27%  
60 25% 26%  
61 0.2% 1.0%  
62 0.8% 0.8%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 18% 99.9%  
54 14% 82% Last Result, Median
55 40% 69%  
56 2% 28%  
57 25% 26%  
58 0.1% 0.9%  
59 0.1% 0.8%  
60 0.7% 0.7%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.5% 100%  
48 19% 99.5%  
49 13% 81% Median
50 64% 67%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
53 0.8% 0.8%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.7% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.3%  
45 2% 99.2%  
46 25% 97%  
47 13% 73% Last Result, Median
48 59% 60%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.7% 100% Last Result
43 0.2% 99.2%  
44 58% 99.0% Median
45 14% 41%  
46 1.1% 27%  
47 2% 26%  
48 23% 23%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 24% 99.7%  
34 2% 76%  
35 2% 74%  
36 30% 72% Median
37 42% 42%  
38 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 0% 99.6%  
30 3% 99.5%  
31 3% 97%  
32 35% 94% Median
33 56% 60% Last Result
34 2% 3%  
35 0.8% 0.8%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.6%  
25 1.1% 99.5%  
26 14% 98%  
27 1.2% 84% Median
28 80% 83% Last Result
29 3% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations