Opinion Poll by GfK for EenVandaag, 21–24 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.0% 18.8–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.2–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 17.3% 16.3–18.5% 16.0–18.8% 15.7–19.1% 15.2–19.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.5–12.3% 10.2–12.6% 10.0–12.9% 9.6–13.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.6% 7.9–9.5% 7.6–9.8% 7.5–10.0% 7.1–10.4%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.7% 6.0–7.5% 5.8–7.7% 5.6–7.9% 5.3–8.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.9–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 27–32 27–32 27–33 27–33
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 26 25–27 25–27 25–28 24–30
Democraten 66 19 18 18–19 17–19 17–20 16–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 16–18 15–18 15–18 14–20
Socialistische Partij 14 12 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
GroenLinks 14 11 11–13 11–15 11–15 9–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Forum voor Democratie 2 5 5–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
50Plus 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 15% 99.9%  
28 6% 85%  
29 1.4% 79%  
30 2% 77%  
31 16% 75%  
32 54% 59% Median
33 5% 5% Last Result
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100% Last Result
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 1.5% 99.9%  
25 16% 98%  
26 54% 82% Median
27 25% 28%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.2% 1.0%  
30 0.7% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 1.4% 99.6%  
17 5% 98%  
18 55% 94% Median
19 36% 39% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 1.0% 1.0%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.9% 100%  
15 8% 99.1%  
16 17% 92%  
17 56% 74% Median
18 16% 18%  
19 1.0% 2% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.6%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 54% 98% Median
13 32% 44%  
14 5% 12% Last Result
15 6% 7%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.8% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.2%  
11 66% 98% Median
12 5% 32%  
13 21% 28%  
14 0.9% 6% Last Result
15 5% 5%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 15% 99.8%  
9 8% 85% Last Result
10 14% 77%  
11 3% 62%  
12 60% 60% Median
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.2% 100%  
4 9% 98.8%  
5 74% 90% Last Result, Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.7% 100%  
4 62% 99.3% Median
5 31% 37% Last Result
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.3% 100%  
4 9% 99.7%  
5 75% 91% Median
6 6% 16%  
7 10% 10%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 62% 99.6% Median
4 35% 37% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 11% 100%  
3 88% 89% Last Result, Median
4 0.8% 0.9%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 22% 100%  
2 76% 78% Median
3 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 82–83 81–84 81–84 78–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 84 99.9% 78–84 78–84 78–84 77–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 83 100% 80–83 77–83 77–84 77–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 94% 77–80 75–80 75–81 75–83
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 24% 74–77 73–80 73–80 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 75 3% 71–75 71–75 71–76 70–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 0.3% 69–72 68–72 68–72 67–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 67 0% 64–67 63–67 63–67 62–70
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 61–64 60–65 59–65 58–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 54–62 54–62 54–62 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 57–61 54–61 54–61 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 53–61 53–61 53–61 53–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 54–58 52–58 52–58 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 53–57 50–57 50–57 50–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 54 0% 50–54 48–54 48–54 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 45–49 44–49 44–49 44–51
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 47 0% 45–47 43–47 42–47 42–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 35–44 35–44 35–44 35–45
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 34–37 34–37 32–37 32–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 34 0% 30–34 28–34 28–34 27–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 26–29 24–29 24–29 24–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100% Majority
77 0% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.2%  
80 1.0% 98.7%  
81 7% 98%  
82 13% 91%  
83 70% 77% Median
84 5% 7%  
85 1.4% 2%  
86 0.1% 0.6%  
87 0.5% 0.5%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.9% Majority
77 0.8% 99.6%  
78 20% 98.7%  
79 0.9% 79%  
80 9% 78%  
81 13% 69%  
82 1.0% 56%  
83 1.0% 55%  
84 54% 54% Median
85 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100% Majority
77 5% 99.8% Last Result
78 0.9% 94%  
79 0.4% 94%  
80 20% 93%  
81 2% 73%  
82 15% 71%  
83 53% 56% Median
84 0.5% 3%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 1.0% 1.2%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
75 6% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 94% Majority
77 20% 93%  
78 2% 73%  
79 12% 71%  
80 56% 59% Median
81 0.4% 3%  
82 1.0% 2%  
83 1.0% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 1.3% 99.1%  
73 4% 98%  
74 10% 94%  
75 59% 84% Median
76 2% 24% Majority
77 16% 23%  
78 0.5% 6%  
79 0.6% 6%  
80 5% 5% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 10% 99.3%  
72 25% 89% Last Result
73 2% 64%  
74 2% 62%  
75 57% 60% Median
76 0.7% 3% Majority
77 0.4% 2%  
78 0.3% 1.5%  
79 1.2% 1.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 7% 99.0%  
69 5% 92%  
70 19% 87%  
71 11% 68%  
72 55% 57% Median
73 0.4% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.1%  
75 0% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.8%  
63 6% 99.2%  
64 16% 93%  
65 8% 77%  
66 12% 69%  
67 54% 57% Median
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.2% 1.2%  
70 0.9% 1.0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 3% 99.2%  
60 2% 96%  
61 12% 94%  
62 6% 82%  
63 55% 77% Median
64 15% 22%  
65 6% 7%  
66 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 15% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 85%  
56 0.6% 84%  
57 1.2% 84%  
58 2% 83%  
59 11% 81%  
60 14% 70%  
61 2% 56% Last Result
62 53% 54% Median
63 0.9% 1.0%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 5% 100%  
55 1.1% 95%  
56 0.8% 94%  
57 15% 93%  
58 9% 78%  
59 2% 69%  
60 54% 67% Median
61 11% 13% Last Result
62 1.4% 2%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 15% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 85%  
55 5% 84%  
56 7% 79%  
57 12% 73%  
58 4% 61%  
59 1.3% 57%  
60 1.0% 55%  
61 53% 54% Last Result, Median
62 0.1% 0.9%  
63 0.8% 0.9%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 6% 100%  
53 0.8% 94%  
54 16% 93%  
55 5% 78%  
56 4% 72%  
57 55% 68% Median
58 11% 13% Last Result
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 5% 100%  
51 0.4% 94%  
52 0.8% 94%  
53 15% 93%  
54 3% 78%  
55 8% 76%  
56 0.7% 67%  
57 65% 67% Last Result, Median
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 6% 100%  
49 1.0% 94%  
50 15% 93%  
51 1.3% 78%  
52 7% 77%  
53 3% 70%  
54 65% 67% Last Result, Median
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 6% 99.8%  
45 15% 94%  
46 6% 79%  
47 12% 73%  
48 4% 61%  
49 55% 57% Median
50 0.5% 2%  
51 1.1% 1.4%  
52 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.9%  
43 6% 97%  
44 1.0% 91%  
45 26% 90%  
46 4% 64%  
47 59% 60% Last Result, Median
48 1.0% 1.4%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 15% 100%  
36 0.2% 85%  
37 0.4% 85%  
38 0.6% 85%  
39 2% 84%  
40 12% 82%  
41 11% 70%  
42 2% 60% Last Result
43 3% 58%  
44 53% 54% Median
45 0.9% 0.9%  
46 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 3% 100%  
33 0.9% 97%  
34 7% 96%  
35 70% 89% Median
36 1.3% 19%  
37 17% 18%  
38 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
39 0.1% 0.4%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.7% 99.9%  
28 5% 99.2%  
29 1.0% 94%  
30 4% 93%  
31 10% 89%  
32 17% 79%  
33 6% 62% Last Result
34 54% 56% Median
35 1.1% 2%  
36 0.2% 0.4%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 5% 99.6%  
25 4% 94%  
26 26% 90%  
27 2% 65%  
28 7% 63% Last Result
29 54% 56% Median
30 1.5% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.5%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations