Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 30 July 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.3% 20.4–22.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.9–22.8% 19.4–23.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.0% 13.2–14.8% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 32–34 31–35 30–37 30–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 21 20–22 19–23 19–23 19–24
Democraten 66 19 21 19–22 19–22 19–22 18–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–17 14–17 14–19 14–19
GroenLinks 14 13 12–14 12–14 12–14 12–15
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–13 9–13 9–13
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Partij voor de Dieren 5 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 3 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 5% 99.9%  
31 3% 95%  
32 10% 92%  
33 24% 82% Last Result
34 52% 58% Median
35 2% 6%  
36 0.2% 4%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 7% 99.9%  
20 20% 93% Last Result
21 58% 73% Median
22 10% 15%  
23 4% 5%  
24 1.3% 1.5%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 1.1% 100%  
19 10% 98.9% Last Result
20 20% 89%  
21 57% 69% Median
22 10% 12%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 6% 100%  
15 30% 94%  
16 11% 64%  
17 49% 53% Median
18 0.5% 4%  
19 4% 4% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 47% 99.8%  
13 33% 52% Median
14 17% 19% Last Result
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 10% 96%  
11 67% 86% Median
12 13% 18%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100% Last Result
10 51% 97% Median
11 10% 45%  
12 30% 35%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 1.5% 100%  
5 20% 98.5%  
6 67% 78% Median
7 11% 11%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 43% 99.9%  
5 54% 57% Last Result, Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 64% 99.9% Median
5 18% 36% Last Result
6 18% 19%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 61% 97% Median
4 33% 36% Last Result
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 23% 99.8%  
3 49% 76% Last Result, Median
4 27% 28%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 27% 100%  
3 71% 73% Last Result, Median
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 85–89 85–89 84–90 82–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 87 100% 82–87 82–88 82–88 81–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 98% 76–81 76–81 76–84 75–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 77 54% 74–78 73–78 73–82 73–82
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 76 81% 74–78 74–80 72–80 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 76 52% 72–77 71–77 71–77 69–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 0% 69–72 68–72 68–75 67–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 71 0% 68–72 67–73 67–73 65–73
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 63–67 63–68 63–70 62–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 65 0% 63–67 63–67 62–67 61–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 60–63 58–64 57–67 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 57–60 55–61 55–65 54–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 58–62 58–63 57–64 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 56–60 54–60 53–63 53–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–57 52–57 51–61 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 48–51 46–51 46–54 45–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 48 0% 45–49 45–50 45–52 44–52
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 42–46 42–46 41–47 41–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 37 0% 35–38 35–38 34–41 33–41
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 32 0% 29–33 29–35 29–35 29–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 27 0% 25–29 25–30 25–30 25–30

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.7% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.3%  
84 2% 99.1%  
85 8% 97%  
86 17% 89%  
87 16% 72%  
88 8% 56%  
89 43% 48%  
90 4% 5% Last Result, Median
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 1.0% 99.8%  
82 14% 98.7%  
83 3% 85%  
84 1.1% 82%  
85 13% 81% Last Result
86 16% 68%  
87 47% 53% Median
88 6% 6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 2% 99.9%  
76 11% 98% Majority
77 6% 87% Last Result
78 3% 81%  
79 32% 78%  
80 6% 46%  
81 36% 40% Median
82 0.3% 4%  
83 0.1% 4%  
84 4% 4%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 6% 99.8%  
74 13% 94% Last Result
75 27% 81%  
76 2% 54% Majority
77 12% 52%  
78 35% 40% Median
79 0.6% 5%  
80 0.1% 4%  
81 0.1% 4%  
82 4% 4%  
83 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 5% 100%  
73 0.2% 95%  
74 11% 95%  
75 3% 84%  
76 58% 81% Majority
77 6% 23% Median
78 8% 17%  
79 2% 9%  
80 7% 7% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.7% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.2%  
71 5% 99.1%  
72 12% 94%  
73 10% 82%  
74 19% 72%  
75 0.4% 53%  
76 11% 52% Last Result, Majority
77 41% 41% Median
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.4% 100%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 8% 98.9%  
69 35% 91%  
70 9% 56%  
71 3% 47%  
72 39% 44% Last Result, Median
73 0.7% 5%  
74 0.1% 4%  
75 4% 4%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.7% 99.9%  
66 1.1% 99.2%  
67 7% 98%  
68 15% 91%  
69 8% 76%  
70 16% 68%  
71 11% 52% Last Result
72 35% 41% Median
73 6% 6%  
74 0.4% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 2% 99.9%  
63 15% 98%  
64 6% 84%  
65 58% 77%  
66 8% 19% Last Result, Median
67 2% 11%  
68 6% 10%  
69 0.4% 4%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
62 2% 98.8%  
63 16% 97%  
64 12% 81%  
65 43% 69% Median
66 7% 27%  
67 18% 20%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.3% 100%  
57 3% 99.7%  
58 3% 96%  
59 3% 93%  
60 13% 91%  
61 8% 78% Last Result
62 29% 70%  
63 35% 41% Median
64 3% 7%  
65 0.1% 4%  
66 0% 4%  
67 4% 4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 2% 100%  
55 5% 98%  
56 3% 94%  
57 5% 91%  
58 34% 86% Last Result
59 11% 52%  
60 35% 41% Median
61 2% 6%  
62 0.2% 4%  
63 0% 4%  
64 0.1% 4%  
65 4% 4%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 1.5% 99.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 17% 97%  
59 4% 80%  
60 9% 76%  
61 54% 67% Last Result, Median
62 6% 14%  
63 3% 8%  
64 4% 4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 3% 100%  
54 2% 97%  
55 4% 95%  
56 5% 91%  
57 9% 86% Last Result
58 21% 77%  
59 18% 57%  
60 35% 39% Median
61 0.1% 4%  
62 0% 4%  
63 4% 4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 1.3% 100%  
51 3% 98.7%  
52 4% 95%  
53 1.3% 91%  
54 16% 90% Last Result
55 29% 74%  
56 6% 45%  
57 34% 39% Median
58 0.2% 4%  
59 0% 4%  
60 0% 4%  
61 4% 4%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 2% 100%  
46 3% 98%  
47 3% 94%  
48 17% 91%  
49 26% 75%  
50 8% 49%  
51 37% 41% Median
52 0.2% 4% Last Result
53 0% 4%  
54 4% 4%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.8%  
45 11% 99.0%  
46 7% 88%  
47 8% 81% Last Result
48 54% 73% Median
49 12% 19%  
50 3% 6%  
51 0.5% 4%  
52 3% 3%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.7%  
41 4% 99.7%  
42 6% 96% Last Result
43 12% 89%  
44 46% 77% Median
45 4% 31%  
46 23% 27%  
47 4% 4%  
48 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.7% 100%  
34 3% 99.3%  
35 13% 96%  
36 29% 83%  
37 6% 54%  
38 44% 48% Last Result, Median
39 0.5% 4%  
40 0.1% 4%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 13% 99.9%  
30 7% 87%  
31 23% 81%  
32 37% 57% Median
33 11% 20% Last Result
34 2% 9%  
35 7% 7%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 16% 99.7%  
26 7% 84%  
27 57% 77% Median
28 6% 20% Last Result
29 7% 14%  
30 7% 7%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations