Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 10 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 22.2% 20.6–24.0% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Democraten 66 12.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
DENK 2.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
50Plus 3.1% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 30–37 30–38 30–38 30–41
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 19–21 18–23 17–23 17–25
Democraten 66 19 19 18–22 17–22 17–23 16–25
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–17 13–17 13–18 12–20
GroenLinks 14 12 11–15 10–15 10–15 9–17
Socialistische Partij 14 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 7–8 6–8 6–9 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–8 6–8 6–9 5–10
Forum voor Democratie 2 8 6–8 6–8 5–9 5–10
ChristenUnie 5 6 4–7 4–8 4–8 4–9
DENK 3 4 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–7
50Plus 4 4 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 13% 99.5%  
31 2% 86%  
32 3% 84%  
33 2% 82% Last Result
34 33% 79% Median
35 3% 46%  
36 7% 43%  
37 29% 37%  
38 5% 7%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.3% 2%  
41 1.2% 1.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 3% 99.8%  
18 4% 97%  
19 6% 94%  
20 48% 87% Last Result, Median
21 30% 39%  
22 3% 9%  
23 4% 6%  
24 0.9% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.9%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 7% 99.4%  
18 2% 92%  
19 55% 90% Last Result, Median
20 4% 35%  
21 7% 30%  
22 20% 23%  
23 1.3% 4%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 1.0% 1.0%  
26 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.6%  
13 30% 98.6%  
14 25% 69% Median
15 3% 44%  
16 8% 41%  
17 30% 33%  
18 1.3% 3%  
19 0.9% 2% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 4% 98%  
11 11% 94%  
12 44% 83% Median
13 6% 40%  
14 6% 33% Last Result
15 26% 27%  
16 0.9% 2%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 30% 96%  
8 26% 66% Median
9 15% 40%  
10 23% 25%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 1.2% 99.8%  
6 8% 98.7%  
7 64% 90% Median
8 23% 26%  
9 2% 3% Last Result
10 0.5% 0.8%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 2% 99.9% Last Result
6 14% 98%  
7 53% 84% Median
8 26% 31%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0.3% 100%  
5 4% 99.7%  
6 9% 96%  
7 33% 86%  
8 48% 53% Median
9 4% 5%  
10 0.5% 0.8%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 21% 100%  
5 19% 79% Last Result
6 46% 60% Median
7 9% 14%  
8 5% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 11% 99.7% Last Result
4 59% 88% Median
5 26% 30%  
6 2% 3%  
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 4% 99.9%  
3 19% 96%  
4 75% 77% Last Result, Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0.3% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 32% 99.7%  
2 55% 68% Median
3 7% 13% Last Result
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 88 100% 84–90 84–91 84–92 83–94
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 82 99.9% 80–86 80–86 79–87 76–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 79 84% 75–84 75–84 75–85 73–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 78 76% 73–82 73–82 73–83 72–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 75 27% 72–78 72–79 71–80 70–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 1.0% 65–74 65–75 65–75 65–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 69 0.5% 66–72 66–74 66–74 64–75
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 69 0.3% 67–71 66–73 65–74 63–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 58–67 58–68 58–69 56–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 62 0% 56–65 56–65 56–67 54–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 60–64 60–65 58–66 56–68
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 60 0% 58–63 58–64 57–66 55–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 54–63 54–65 54–66 52–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 52–61 52–62 52–64 50–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 52–62 52–62 52–62 51–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 50 0% 44–54 44–55 44–55 44–56
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 39–44 39–45 39–46 37–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 38–45 38–45 38–46 36–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 32–36 32–38 32–38 31–40
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 28 0% 26–30 26–32 26–32 24–33
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 22 0% 20–24 20–25 20–26 18–28

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.6%  
84 14% 99.1%  
85 9% 85% Median
86 22% 77%  
87 3% 55%  
88 4% 52%  
89 3% 47%  
90 35% 44% Last Result
91 5% 9%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.9% Majority
77 0.5% 99.4%  
78 0.6% 98.9%  
79 2% 98%  
80 14% 97% Median
81 28% 83%  
82 27% 55%  
83 8% 28%  
84 5% 20%  
85 1.2% 15% Last Result
86 10% 14%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.2%  
75 15% 98.7%  
76 3% 84% Majority
77 6% 81% Last Result
78 5% 76% Median
79 25% 70%  
80 21% 45%  
81 10% 24%  
82 2% 14%  
83 2% 13%  
84 7% 11%  
85 3% 4%  
86 0.7% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.5%  
73 15% 99.0%  
74 5% 85% Last Result
75 4% 79%  
76 2% 76% Median, Majority
77 11% 74%  
78 44% 63%  
79 3% 18%  
80 3% 15%  
81 1.3% 12%  
82 7% 11%  
83 4% 4%  
84 0.3% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.2%  
72 13% 97%  
73 1.3% 84% Median
74 28% 83%  
75 27% 55%  
76 6% 27% Last Result, Majority
77 5% 21%  
78 9% 16%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.5% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 14% 99.6%  
66 1.3% 85%  
67 2% 84%  
68 5% 82% Median
69 8% 77%  
70 30% 70%  
71 22% 40%  
72 1.2% 18% Last Result
73 3% 17%  
74 7% 13%  
75 6% 7%  
76 0.7% 1.0% Majority
77 0.3% 0.3%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.6%  
65 1.1% 99.0%  
66 14% 98%  
67 2% 84% Median
68 5% 82%  
69 31% 77%  
70 24% 46%  
71 8% 22% Last Result
72 7% 14%  
73 1.4% 7%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.5% Majority
77 0% 0.4%  
78 0.3% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 1.3% 99.9%  
64 1.0% 98.6%  
65 0.6% 98%  
66 4% 97% Median
67 33% 93%  
68 7% 60%  
69 26% 53%  
70 16% 27%  
71 4% 11%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 5%  
74 0.9% 3%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.1% 0.3% Majority
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.4% 100%  
56 0.7% 99.5%  
57 1.1% 98.8%  
58 14% 98%  
59 1.0% 84%  
60 3% 83%  
61 7% 80% Last Result
62 4% 73% Median
63 34% 69%  
64 21% 34%  
65 1.1% 13%  
66 1.1% 12%  
67 6% 11%  
68 2% 5%  
69 3% 3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.4% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.5%  
55 0.7% 99.3%  
56 15% 98.6%  
57 2% 84%  
58 3% 83% Last Result
59 9% 80%  
60 10% 70% Median
61 2% 60%  
62 46% 58%  
63 0.8% 13%  
64 0.7% 12%  
65 6% 11%  
66 2% 5%  
67 3% 3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 1.2% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 98.5%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 0.9% 96%  
60 35% 95% Median
61 4% 60% Last Result
62 19% 56%  
63 24% 37%  
64 8% 13%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.0% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 98%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 10% 97% Median
59 28% 87%  
60 24% 59%  
61 9% 35%  
62 16% 26%  
63 4% 10%  
64 2% 6%  
65 0.9% 4%  
66 2% 3% Last Result
67 0.7% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.8% 99.9%  
53 1.2% 99.1%  
54 13% 98%  
55 1.3% 85%  
56 1.1% 84%  
57 8% 82% Last Result
58 4% 74% Median
59 28% 70%  
60 27% 42%  
61 3% 15%  
62 1.0% 13%  
63 6% 12%  
64 0.3% 6%  
65 2% 5%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 14% 98.9%  
53 1.5% 85%  
54 1.3% 84% Last Result
55 4% 82%  
56 17% 78% Median
57 2% 61%  
58 45% 59%  
59 2% 15%  
60 2% 13%  
61 6% 11%  
62 0.8% 6%  
63 2% 5%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 14% 99.3%  
53 1.4% 86%  
54 2% 84%  
55 8% 83% Median
56 11% 75%  
57 26% 63%  
58 22% 37%  
59 1.0% 15%  
60 2% 14%  
61 0.3% 12% Last Result
62 11% 11%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 13% 99.8%  
45 1.5% 87%  
46 2% 85%  
47 0.7% 83%  
48 9% 83% Median
49 6% 73%  
50 31% 67%  
51 22% 36%  
52 1.1% 14% Last Result
53 0.6% 13%  
54 7% 12%  
55 5% 6%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 98.8%  
39 29% 98%  
40 2% 69% Median
41 2% 67%  
42 14% 66%  
43 28% 51%  
44 17% 23%  
45 1.5% 6%  
46 3% 5%  
47 2% 2% Last Result
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.8%  
37 1.0% 99.5%  
38 14% 98.5%  
39 2% 84%  
40 5% 82%  
41 30% 78% Median
42 5% 48% Last Result
43 5% 43%  
44 26% 38%  
45 10% 13%  
46 1.2% 3%  
47 1.1% 1.5%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 1.3% 99.6%  
32 29% 98%  
33 2% 69% Median
34 8% 67%  
35 8% 60%  
36 42% 51%  
37 1.2% 9%  
38 6% 8% Last Result
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 1.4% 99.8%  
25 0.8% 98%  
26 32% 98%  
27 6% 65% Median
28 41% 59%  
29 5% 18%  
30 4% 13%  
31 0.9% 9%  
32 7% 8%  
33 1.0% 1.2% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 1.4% 99.2%  
20 30% 98%  
21 9% 68% Median
22 19% 58%  
23 5% 39%  
24 26% 34%  
25 6% 8%  
26 1.1% 3%  
27 0.8% 1.4%  
28 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations