Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 20 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.7% 19.7–21.6% 19.5–21.9% 19.3–22.2% 18.8–22.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 13.3% 12.6–14.2% 12.3–14.4% 12.2–14.6% 11.8–15.0%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 29–31 29–32 29–32 29–34
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 20–22 19–22 19–22 18–22
Democraten 66 19 18 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
GroenLinks 14 13 12–13 12–14 12–15 12–15
Socialistische Partij 14 13 12–13 11–13 11–13 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 7 7 6–8 6–8 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
50Plus 4 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.3% 100%  
29 21% 99.7%  
30 29% 79% Median
31 44% 49%  
32 4% 5%  
33 0.6% 2% Last Result
34 0.9% 1.4%  
35 0.3% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 1.3% 99.8%  
19 6% 98%  
20 61% 93% Last Result, Median
21 8% 32%  
22 24% 24%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.8%  
17 5% 99.6%  
18 70% 95% Median
19 3% 25% Last Result
20 22% 23%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.5%  
16 24% 99.4%  
17 56% 75% Median
18 11% 19%  
19 7% 8% Last Result
20 0.2% 0.4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 43% 99.5%  
13 49% 57% Median
14 5% 8% Last Result
15 3% 3%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 5% 99.4%  
12 29% 94%  
13 64% 65% Median
14 0.5% 1.4% Last Result
15 0.9% 0.9%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 3% 100% Last Result
10 44% 97%  
11 24% 52% Median
12 27% 28%  
13 0.8% 1.1%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 5% 99.5%  
7 89% 94% Median
8 4% 5%  
9 0.7% 0.7%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100%  
5 53% 99.5% Last Result, Median
6 44% 47%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 9% 99.9%  
5 30% 90% Last Result
6 59% 60% Median
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 59% 99.6% Median
4 38% 41% Last Result
5 2% 2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 47% 87% Last Result, Median
4 40% 40%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 87% 91% Last Result, Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 82–86 82–87 82–87 82–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 81–83 81–85 81–85 80–87
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 99.2% 76–79 76–79 76–80 75–82
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 97% 76–80 76–80 75–80 72–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 17% 73–76 73–77 73–77 72–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 0.3% 69–73 69–73 69–73 69–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 68 0% 66–69 66–69 66–70 66–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 66 0% 64–67 64–68 64–69 64–70
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 63–67 63–67 63–68 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 59–63 59–63 59–64 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 59–60 58–61 57–62 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 57–59 57–61 57–61 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–60 56–60 56–61 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–59 56–59 56–61 55–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–56 53–56 53–57 52–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 46–49 46–49 46–50 46–52
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 46 0% 45–48 45–48 45–48 43–50
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 41 0% 40–42 40–43 39–44 39–45
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 34–37 34–37 34–38 33–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 33–34 32–35 31–36 30–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 27–29 27–30 27–30 25–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 26% 99.9%  
83 2% 74%  
84 38% 72% Median
85 22% 34%  
86 6% 13%  
87 5% 6%  
88 0.8% 1.2%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 31% 99.3%  
82 40% 68% Median
83 22% 29%  
84 1.0% 7%  
85 4% 6% Last Result
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.5% 0.5%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.3% 100%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 18% 99.2% Majority
77 0.5% 81% Last Result, Median
78 34% 80%  
79 43% 46%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.7% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.4% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.5%  
73 0.2% 99.5%  
74 0.2% 99.3%  
75 2% 99.0%  
76 60% 97% Majority
77 11% 37%  
78 4% 26% Median
79 1.0% 23%  
80 21% 22% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 18% 99.3%  
74 4% 81% Last Result, Median
75 61% 78%  
76 11% 17% Majority
77 4% 6%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.9% 1.2%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 23% 99.6%  
70 4% 77%  
71 4% 73% Median
72 58% 69%  
73 9% 11%  
74 0.3% 2%  
75 1.2% 1.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 18% 99.7%  
67 2% 82% Median
68 63% 80%  
69 13% 17%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 23% 99.7%  
65 1.1% 77% Median
66 59% 76%  
67 9% 16%  
68 4% 7%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.6% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.5%  
61 0.1% 99.5%  
62 2% 99.3%  
63 37% 98%  
64 30% 61%  
65 3% 31% Median
66 5% 27% Last Result
67 18% 22%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0% 0.5%  
70 0.4% 0.4%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 18% 99.8%  
60 24% 82% Median
61 8% 58% Last Result
62 39% 50%  
63 7% 11%  
64 3% 4%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 2% 100%  
57 0.3% 98%  
58 4% 97%  
59 39% 94% Median
60 46% 55%  
61 5% 8% Last Result
62 1.3% 4%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.7% 0.7%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 18% 99.5%  
58 65% 81% Median
59 9% 17%  
60 1.0% 8%  
61 5% 7% Last Result
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.5% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 18% 99.8%  
57 23% 82% Median
58 36% 58% Last Result
59 10% 22%  
60 8% 12%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.7% 100%  
56 40% 99.2%  
57 5% 59% Last Result, Median
58 6% 53%  
59 43% 47%  
60 1.0% 4%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.7% 100%  
53 41% 99.3%  
54 0.8% 59% Last Result, Median
55 43% 58%  
56 11% 15%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 41% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 59% Median
48 44% 58%  
49 10% 14%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.4%  
45 40% 98%  
46 26% 58% Median
47 2% 33% Last Result
48 28% 30%  
49 1.5% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.8%  
51 0.5% 0.5%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 2% 99.9%  
40 24% 97%  
41 40% 73% Median
42 26% 33% Last Result
43 5% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.7%  
34 24% 98.9%  
35 38% 75% Median
36 10% 37%  
37 23% 28%  
38 5% 5% Last Result
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 0% 99.6%  
30 0.2% 99.5%  
31 2% 99.3%  
32 4% 97%  
33 62% 93% Last Result
34 25% 31% Median
35 0.8% 6%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.7% 0.7%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.5%  
26 0.5% 99.4%  
27 39% 98.9%  
28 49% 60% Last Result, Median
29 1.1% 11%  
30 8% 10%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.5% 0.5%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations