Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 31 August 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.6% 19.0–22.4% 18.6–22.9% 18.2–23.4% 17.5–24.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 12.9–16.7% 12.6–17.1% 11.9–17.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.9% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.5–14.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.8% 8.3–13.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.8% 8.3–13.5%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.2% 5.4–9.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.6–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
50Plus 3.1% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.3%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 28–35 28–35 27–35 26–37
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 23 20–24 20–24 19–24 18–26
Democraten 66 19 17 15–20 15–20 15–20 14–23
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–20 14–20 14–20 13–20
GroenLinks 14 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–19
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–14 8–14 7–14 7–14
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 6–12
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 6–9 6–9 6–10 6–12
ChristenUnie 5 5 3–7 3–7 3–7 3–7
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–7
50Plus 4 3 2–4 2–5 2–5 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 1–4 1–4 1–4 1–5
DENK 3 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 0.2% 99.7%  
27 3% 99.5%  
28 11% 96%  
29 10% 85%  
30 11% 75%  
31 12% 64%  
32 10% 52% Median
33 29% 41% Last Result
34 0.8% 12%  
35 10% 11%  
36 0.9% 2%  
37 0.6% 0.6%  
38 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.7% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.2%  
20 12% 96% Last Result
21 11% 85%  
22 6% 74%  
23 23% 68% Median
24 43% 45%  
25 0.8% 2%  
26 1.0% 1.3%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0.6% 99.8%  
15 11% 99.3%  
16 21% 89%  
17 32% 68% Median
18 10% 36%  
19 8% 26% Last Result
20 16% 18%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.8%  
23 0.7% 0.7%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 26% 98%  
15 6% 72%  
16 24% 66% Median
17 15% 42%  
18 2% 27%  
19 14% 25% Last Result
20 10% 11%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 10% 99.8% Last Result
15 27% 89%  
16 40% 63% Median
17 4% 23%  
18 16% 18%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 5% 100%  
8 0.7% 95%  
9 3% 95%  
10 3% 91%  
11 48% 89% Median
12 29% 40%  
13 0.9% 11%  
14 10% 11% Last Result
15 0.2% 0.3%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.8% 99.8%  
7 12% 99.0%  
8 21% 87%  
9 53% 66% Last Result, Median
10 2% 13%  
11 10% 11%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 20% 99.7%  
7 9% 80%  
8 5% 71%  
9 62% 66% Median
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 1.3%  
12 0% 0.5%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 11% 99.9%  
4 33% 89%  
5 15% 56% Last Result, Median
6 27% 41%  
7 13% 13%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 19% 99.9%  
4 16% 81%  
5 26% 66% Last Result, Median
6 38% 40%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 11% 99.9%  
3 53% 89% Median
4 29% 36% Last Result
5 6% 7%  
6 0.7% 0.8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 24% 100%  
2 31% 76% Median
3 24% 44% Last Result
4 19% 20%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 23% 98.6%  
2 29% 76% Median
3 47% 47% Last Result
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 86 100% 82–89 82–90 82–90 81–92
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 81 91% 76–85 75–88 75–88 75–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 80 83% 74–82 72–86 72–86 72–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 79 97% 76–83 76–83 75–83 73–83
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 74 39% 71–81 71–82 71–82 68–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 71 10% 66–75 66–77 65–77 62–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 71 0.4% 67–74 67–74 66–74 64–75
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 63 0% 60–68 60–68 60–69 58–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 65 0% 61–69 61–69 60–69 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 57–67 57–69 57–69 54–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 55–64 54–67 54–67 52–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 57 0% 54–64 54–65 54–65 50–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 54–60 53–60 53–63 53–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 51–60 51–63 51–63 48–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 54–61 52–61 52–61 50–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 45–52 44–54 43–54 42–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 40–46 40–47 40–47 37–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 37–42 37–42 35–43 35–45
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 34 0% 31–37 31–38 31–38 28–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 29 0% 27–35 27–36 27–36 23–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 25 0% 23–29 23–29 22–29 19–29

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.4% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.5%  
82 10% 99.1%  
83 0.8% 90%  
84 26% 89%  
85 1.3% 63%  
86 18% 61% Median
87 2% 43%  
88 22% 41%  
89 10% 18%  
90 7% 8% Last Result
91 0.2% 1.1%  
92 0.4% 0.9%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 9% 99.8%  
76 6% 91% Majority
77 1.2% 85% Last Result
78 2% 84%  
79 2% 82%  
80 18% 80%  
81 29% 61%  
82 0.8% 32% Median
83 12% 31%  
84 1.3% 19%  
85 8% 18%  
86 0.2% 10%  
87 0.2% 10%  
88 10% 10%  
89 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 8% 99.5%  
73 0.8% 91%  
74 7% 90% Last Result
75 0.6% 83%  
76 11% 83% Majority
77 2% 72%  
78 9% 70%  
79 5% 60%  
80 36% 55% Median
81 8% 19%  
82 0.7% 11%  
83 0.3% 10%  
84 0.1% 10%  
85 0% 10%  
86 10% 10%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.9% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.0%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 11% 97% Majority
77 25% 86%  
78 5% 61%  
79 25% 55% Median
80 2% 31%  
81 6% 29%  
82 11% 23%  
83 12% 13%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 1.0% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.0%  
70 0.7% 98.6%  
71 34% 98%  
72 2% 64%  
73 5% 63%  
74 8% 57% Median
75 10% 49%  
76 2% 39% Majority
77 13% 37%  
78 3% 24%  
79 6% 21%  
80 3% 15% Last Result
81 4% 12%  
82 8% 9%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.3% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.5%  
64 0.9% 99.3%  
65 3% 98%  
66 8% 96%  
67 1.2% 88%  
68 8% 86%  
69 10% 78%  
70 8% 68%  
71 34% 60% Median
72 14% 26% Last Result
73 1.4% 12%  
74 0.4% 10%  
75 0.2% 10%  
76 0.2% 10% Majority
77 10% 10%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.4% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.3% 99.2%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 11% 97%  
68 26% 86%  
69 1.1% 60%  
70 3% 59% Median
71 23% 56%  
72 17% 32%  
73 2% 15%  
74 13% 14%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.3% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 1.3% 100%  
59 0.3% 98.6%  
60 34% 98%  
61 0.7% 64%  
62 9% 64%  
63 11% 55% Median
64 1.1% 44%  
65 0.5% 43%  
66 20% 43% Last Result
67 8% 23%  
68 11% 14%  
69 2% 3%  
70 0.1% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.6%  
72 0.4% 0.5%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.9% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 9% 97%  
62 2% 88%  
63 2% 85%  
64 26% 84%  
65 11% 57% Median
66 13% 46%  
67 19% 33%  
68 2% 15%  
69 11% 12%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.7% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.3%  
56 0.1% 98.9%  
57 12% 98.7%  
58 0.5% 87%  
59 10% 86%  
60 34% 76%  
61 2% 43% Last Result
62 6% 41% Median
63 11% 35%  
64 2% 24%  
65 0.7% 22%  
66 0.7% 21%  
67 11% 21%  
68 0.1% 10%  
69 10% 10%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.7% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.2%  
54 8% 98%  
55 4% 90%  
56 6% 86%  
57 13% 80%  
58 2% 67% Last Result
59 35% 65%  
60 6% 29% Median
61 2% 24%  
62 0.7% 22%  
63 0.3% 21%  
64 11% 21%  
65 0.3% 10%  
66 0.1% 10%  
67 10% 10%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.7% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.3%  
52 0.1% 98.9%  
53 0.3% 98.8%  
54 12% 98.5%  
55 2% 86%  
56 12% 84%  
57 31% 72% Last Result
58 6% 41%  
59 2% 35% Median
60 1.0% 33%  
61 11% 32%  
62 1.0% 21%  
63 10% 20%  
64 0.4% 10%  
65 10% 10%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 9% 99.6%  
54 4% 90%  
55 3% 86%  
56 13% 83%  
57 13% 70%  
58 14% 57% Median
59 30% 43%  
60 9% 13%  
61 0.7% 4% Last Result
62 0.7% 3%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.8% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.2%  
50 0.4% 98.8%  
51 9% 98%  
52 6% 90%  
53 9% 84%  
54 10% 75% Last Result
55 0.9% 65%  
56 32% 64%  
57 11% 32% Median
58 0.3% 22%  
59 0.9% 21%  
60 11% 20%  
61 0.2% 10%  
62 0.1% 10%  
63 10% 10%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 2% 99.4%  
52 3% 98%  
53 1.0% 94%  
54 11% 93%  
55 8% 82%  
56 42% 74%  
57 4% 32% Median
58 7% 28%  
59 0.7% 21%  
60 10% 21%  
61 10% 10% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.9%  
43 3% 98%  
44 0.3% 95%  
45 19% 95%  
46 4% 76%  
47 32% 72%  
48 9% 40% Median
49 9% 31%  
50 1.1% 22%  
51 10% 21%  
52 0.5% 10% Last Result
53 0.1% 10%  
54 10% 10%  
55 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.5% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.5%  
39 0.2% 98%  
40 25% 98%  
41 14% 73%  
42 22% 59% Median
43 2% 37%  
44 3% 35%  
45 16% 32%  
46 6% 16%  
47 8% 10% Last Result
48 1.2% 1.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 97%  
37 13% 96%  
38 9% 83%  
39 3% 74%  
40 27% 71%  
41 0.6% 44% Median
42 39% 43% Last Result
43 2% 4%  
44 0.6% 2%  
45 0.9% 1.0%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.7% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.3%  
30 0.5% 99.1%  
31 25% 98.6%  
32 4% 74%  
33 14% 70% Median
34 21% 55%  
35 3% 34%  
36 20% 32%  
37 6% 12%  
38 5% 6% Last Result
39 0.8% 1.1%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.6% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.4%  
25 0% 99.1%  
26 0.3% 99.1%  
27 25% 98.7%  
28 3% 74%  
29 27% 71%  
30 0.9% 44% Median
31 10% 43%  
32 12% 34%  
33 11% 22% Last Result
34 0.5% 11%  
35 0.7% 11%  
36 10% 10%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.6% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.4%  
21 0.8% 99.3%  
22 3% 98.6%  
23 25% 95%  
24 10% 70%  
25 13% 60% Median
26 22% 47%  
27 13% 25%  
28 0.7% 11% Last Result
29 11% 11%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations