Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 3 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.7% 19.7–21.6% 19.5–21.9% 19.3–22.2% 18.8–22.6%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 11.3% 10.6–12.1% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.5% 9.9–12.9%
GroenLinks 9.1% 8.7% 8.0–9.4% 7.8–9.6% 7.7–9.7% 7.4–10.1%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.7% 4.2–5.2% 4.1–5.3% 4.0–5.5% 3.7–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 32 30–35 29–35 29–35 29–36
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 18–21 16–22 16–22 16–22
Democraten 66 19 18 17–20 17–22 16–22 15–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 16–18 16–18 15–19 15–20
GroenLinks 14 13 11–14 11–14 11–15 11–15
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–14 10–15 10–15 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
Forum voor Democratie 2 7 6–8 5–8 5–8 5–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
ChristenUnie 5 4 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 6% 99.5%  
30 19% 94%  
31 15% 75%  
32 29% 60% Median
33 18% 32% Last Result
34 1.2% 14%  
35 11% 13%  
36 1.3% 1.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 5% 100%  
17 3% 95%  
18 36% 92%  
19 20% 55% Median
20 7% 35% Last Result
21 21% 28%  
22 7% 7%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.1% 100%  
16 1.5% 98.9%  
17 33% 97%  
18 20% 65% Median
19 11% 44% Last Result
20 26% 33%  
21 1.2% 7%  
22 6% 6%  
23 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 3% 99.9%  
16 25% 97%  
17 25% 72% Median
18 42% 47%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 14% 99.7%  
12 21% 85%  
13 31% 65% Median
14 30% 33% Last Result
15 3% 4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 5% 99.8%  
11 35% 95%  
12 21% 60% Median
13 25% 38%  
14 5% 13% Last Result
15 8% 8%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100% Last Result
10 8% 99.9%  
11 33% 92%  
12 28% 59% Median
13 23% 31%  
14 8% 8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 6% 100%  
6 35% 94%  
7 43% 59% Median
8 16% 16%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.5% 100%  
5 42% 98.5% Last Result
6 42% 57% Median
7 14% 14%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 55% 99.7% Median
5 40% 45% Last Result
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 42% 99.7%  
4 49% 57% Last Result, Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 16% 99.1%  
3 58% 83% Last Result, Median
4 25% 25%  
5 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 33% 99.9%  
3 59% 67% Last Result, Median
4 8% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 84 100% 83–88 82–88 82–88 81–90
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 84 100% 82–88 82–88 81–88 80–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 91% 76–80 75–81 75–83 74–84
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 77 92% 76–80 75–81 73–81 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 39% 73–77 71–78 71–80 71–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 2% 70–75 69–75 69–75 67–76
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 68 0% 66–70 66–71 65–73 64–73
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 67 0% 65–71 65–71 65–71 63–71
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 62–68 61–68 61–68 61–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 62 0% 60–68 59–68 59–68 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 63 0% 60–65 59–65 58–66 58–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 58–64 58–64 57–64 57–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 56–62 56–62 55–62 55–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 59 0% 57–61 56–62 54–62 54–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 56 0% 53–58 53–58 51–58 51–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 49 0% 47–51 46–51 45–51 45–54
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 48 0% 46–50 46–50 46–50 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 44 0% 41–48 41–48 41–48 40–48
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–39 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–36 32–36 32–37 31–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 29 0% 28–31 28–31 27–32 26–32

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.6% 99.8%  
82 9% 99.2%  
83 14% 90%  
84 26% 76% Median
85 9% 50%  
86 13% 41%  
87 18% 28%  
88 9% 10%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 1.3% 1.3% Last Result
91 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 1.1% 99.9%  
81 3% 98.7%  
82 22% 96%  
83 19% 73% Median
84 24% 54%  
85 8% 30% Last Result
86 7% 22%  
87 3% 15%  
88 12% 12%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.3% 100%  
74 1.3% 99.7%  
75 7% 98%  
76 14% 91% Majority
77 16% 77% Last Result
78 23% 62% Median
79 25% 39%  
80 4% 14%  
81 7% 10%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0% 3%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 3% 99.7%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 32% 92% Median, Majority
77 27% 60%  
78 13% 33%  
79 10% 20%  
80 4% 11% Last Result
81 6% 6%  
82 0% 0.4%  
83 0.4% 0.4%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.3% 100%  
71 6% 99.7%  
72 2% 93%  
73 13% 92%  
74 22% 78% Last Result
75 17% 56% Median
76 19% 39% Majority
77 15% 20%  
78 1.2% 6%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 1.0% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.0%  
69 6% 98.6%  
70 27% 93%  
71 9% 66% Median
72 8% 57%  
73 22% 49%  
74 8% 28%  
75 18% 19%  
76 1.5% 2% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 2% 100%  
65 2% 98%  
66 18% 97%  
67 22% 78%  
68 7% 56% Median
69 20% 50%  
70 24% 30%  
71 0.8% 6%  
72 2% 5% Last Result
73 3% 3%  
74 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 1.1% 100%  
64 0.8% 98.9%  
65 16% 98%  
66 27% 83%  
67 6% 56% Median
68 6% 50%  
69 23% 44%  
70 7% 20%  
71 13% 13% Last Result
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 8% 99.8%  
62 3% 91%  
63 3% 88%  
64 25% 85% Median
65 20% 60%  
66 21% 40% Last Result
67 4% 19%  
68 14% 15%  
69 0.2% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.4% 0.4%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 9% 99.6%  
60 3% 91%  
61 37% 88% Last Result
62 15% 51% Median
63 20% 37%  
64 3% 16%  
65 0.9% 13%  
66 0.6% 12%  
67 0% 11%  
68 11% 11%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 4% 99.9%  
59 2% 96%  
60 8% 94%  
61 11% 86% Last Result
62 18% 75%  
63 29% 57% Median
64 15% 28%  
65 10% 13%  
66 1.5% 3%  
67 1.4% 1.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 4% 99.9%  
58 10% 96%  
59 1.5% 86%  
60 19% 84%  
61 30% 66% Last Result, Median
62 17% 35%  
63 3% 18%  
64 13% 15%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 4% 100%  
56 7% 96%  
57 1.2% 89%  
58 11% 87% Last Result
59 30% 76%  
60 16% 46% Median
61 13% 30%  
62 15% 17%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.2% 1.5%  
65 1.3% 1.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 4% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 96%  
56 4% 96%  
57 14% 92% Last Result
58 19% 78%  
59 13% 59% Median
60 33% 46%  
61 8% 13%  
62 4% 5%  
63 1.4% 1.4%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 4% 100%  
52 0.6% 96%  
53 8% 96%  
54 9% 88% Last Result
55 17% 79%  
56 26% 61% Median
57 15% 35%  
58 18% 20%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.3% 2%  
61 1.2% 1.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 5% 99.9%  
46 1.5% 95%  
47 10% 94%  
48 18% 84%  
49 30% 65% Median
50 4% 35%  
51 30% 32%  
52 0.8% 2% Last Result
53 0.1% 1.4%  
54 1.3% 1.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 1.4% 99.1%  
46 30% 98%  
47 17% 67% Last Result, Median
48 12% 50%  
49 28% 38%  
50 9% 11%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 1.2% 99.9%  
41 10% 98.8%  
42 19% 88% Last Result
43 18% 69%  
44 25% 51% Median
45 5% 26%  
46 8% 21%  
47 2% 13%  
48 12% 12%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 8% 99.6%  
34 17% 91%  
35 18% 74% Median
36 30% 57%  
37 9% 27%  
38 9% 17% Last Result
39 7% 8%  
40 0.4% 0.4%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 2% 99.9%  
32 10% 98%  
33 48% 88% Last Result, Median
34 18% 40%  
35 11% 22%  
36 8% 11%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.8% 0.8%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 2% 99.9%  
27 1.4% 98%  
28 22% 97% Last Result
29 48% 75% Median
30 13% 27%  
31 10% 13%  
32 3% 3%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations