Opinion Poll by GfK for EenVandaag, 1–4 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.6% 18.3–21.9% 17.7–22.5%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.4% 14.3–16.5% 14.0–16.8% 13.8–17.1% 13.3–17.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.7% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–14.0% 11.2–14.3% 10.8–14.8%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.6% 9.8–11.6% 9.5–11.9% 9.3–12.1% 8.9–12.6%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.5–10.2% 8.3–10.5% 8.1–10.7% 7.7–11.2%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.4% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–9.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.7% 4.1–5.3% 3.9–5.5% 3.8–5.7% 3.5–6.1%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.5–4.7% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–3.0%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 29–31 29–33 29–34 26–34
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 23 20–24 20–24 20–26 20–26
Democraten 66 19 20 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 14–19
GroenLinks 14 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Socialistische Partij 14 11 9–12 9–13 9–13 8–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 8–10 8–12 8–12 7–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Forum voor Democratie 2 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
DENK 3 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.5%  
28 1.5% 99.4%  
29 47% 98%  
30 24% 51% Median
31 17% 27%  
32 5% 10%  
33 0.7% 5% Last Result
34 4% 4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 22% 100% Last Result
21 3% 78%  
22 12% 75%  
23 17% 63% Median
24 42% 47%  
25 1.3% 5%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 2% 100%  
17 5% 98%  
18 4% 93%  
19 28% 89% Last Result
20 49% 61% Median
21 11% 12%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.5%  
15 20% 98%  
16 13% 78%  
17 52% 64% Median
18 8% 12%  
19 4% 5% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 0.7% 99.6%  
13 13% 98.9%  
14 34% 86% Last Result
15 15% 51% Median
16 35% 36%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100%  
9 13% 98%  
10 14% 85%  
11 37% 71% Median
12 24% 34%  
13 9% 10%  
14 0% 0.8% Last Result
15 0.7% 0.7%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 0.7% 99.8%  
8 10% 99.1%  
9 53% 89% Last Result, Median
10 30% 37%  
11 2% 7%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 59% 98% Median
7 15% 39%  
8 9% 24%  
9 15% 15%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100%  
5 14% 92% Last Result
6 63% 78% Median
7 15% 16%  
8 0.4% 0.6%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 8% 100%  
4 48% 92% Last Result, Median
5 42% 45%  
6 2% 3%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.4% 100%  
4 51% 99.6% Median
5 21% 49%  
6 28% 28%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 31% 55% Last Result, Median
4 24% 24%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 44% 100%  
2 54% 56% Median
3 1.1% 1.1% Last Result
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 86–90 85–90 83–91 83–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 83 99.9% 80–84 80–85 79–87 76–87
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 78 92% 76–81 74–81 73–81 72–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 77 86% 73–79 73–79 73–80 73–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 19% 71–76 71–77 71–77 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 73 9% 71–75 71–76 69–76 68–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 70 0.1% 67–72 67–72 67–73 66–73
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 65–70 63–70 63–70 61–71
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 66 0% 64–68 64–69 62–69 62–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 57–60 55–61 55–66 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 59 0% 54–61 54–61 54–63 54–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 53–57 53–59 53–61 51–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie 58 56 0% 52–58 52–58 52–60 52–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 54 0% 50–57 50–57 50–58 50–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 52 0% 48–53 48–53 48–55 48–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 47 0% 44–48 44–49 44–50 43–51
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 44–47 42–47 41–47 40–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 38–41 38–43 38–46 35–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 36 0% 35–37 33–37 32–38 31–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–34 30–35 29–35 29–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 24–27 24–28 23–28 22–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 3% 99.9%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 95%  
86 5% 93%  
87 59% 88%  
88 2% 29% Median
89 10% 27%  
90 13% 18% Last Result
91 5% 5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.8% 99.9% Majority
77 0.4% 99.1%  
78 0.8% 98.7%  
79 2% 98%  
80 23% 96%  
81 7% 73%  
82 11% 66% Median
83 40% 55%  
84 6% 15%  
85 5% 9% Last Result
86 0.3% 4%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 2% 99.8%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 10% 92% Majority
77 10% 82%  
78 37% 73% Median
79 24% 36%  
80 1.2% 12% Last Result
81 11% 11%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 10% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 90%  
75 3% 89%  
76 29% 86% Majority
77 24% 58% Last Result, Median
78 23% 34%  
79 6% 11%  
80 2% 5%  
81 0.4% 2%  
82 2% 2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 10% 99.6%  
72 2% 89%  
73 30% 87%  
74 23% 57% Last Result, Median
75 15% 34%  
76 10% 19% Majority
77 6% 9%  
78 0.2% 2%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 1.1% 99.9%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 1.0% 97%  
71 23% 96%  
72 14% 73%  
73 26% 59% Median
74 19% 33%  
75 5% 14%  
76 9% 9% Last Result, Majority
77 0.4% 0.6%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.7%  
67 32% 99.1%  
68 3% 67%  
69 11% 64%  
70 29% 53% Median
71 11% 23%  
72 9% 12% Last Result
73 2% 3%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1% Majority
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.9%  
62 1.0% 99.2%  
63 4% 98%  
64 3% 94%  
65 9% 91%  
66 8% 82% Last Result
67 46% 74% Median
68 13% 29%  
69 4% 16%  
70 10% 11%  
71 0.7% 0.7%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 3% 99.6%  
63 1.0% 97%  
64 6% 96%  
65 39% 90%  
66 3% 50%  
67 30% 47% Median
68 10% 17%  
69 6% 6%  
70 0.1% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 6% 99.5%  
56 0.7% 94%  
57 24% 93%  
58 5% 69%  
59 24% 64% Median
60 35% 40%  
61 0.3% 5% Last Result
62 0.6% 5%  
63 0.7% 4%  
64 0% 4%  
65 0.2% 4%  
66 3% 3%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 10% 100%  
55 7% 90%  
56 2% 82%  
57 21% 81%  
58 8% 59% Median
59 10% 51%  
60 7% 41%  
61 30% 34% Last Result
62 1.0% 4%  
63 0.3% 3%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 98.8%  
53 11% 98%  
54 2% 87%  
55 34% 85%  
56 6% 51% Median
57 36% 45%  
58 2% 9%  
59 3% 7%  
60 0.5% 4%  
61 4% 4% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – 50Plus – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 17% 99.9%  
53 2% 83%  
54 0.9% 81%  
55 28% 80% Median
56 5% 53%  
57 32% 48%  
58 12% 16% Last Result
59 0.6% 4%  
60 0.8% 3%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 10% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 90%  
52 29% 89%  
53 4% 60%  
54 10% 56% Median
55 10% 46%  
56 12% 36%  
57 22% 24% Last Result
58 0.1% 3%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 11% 99.7%  
49 9% 89%  
50 23% 80%  
51 6% 57% Median
52 8% 51%  
53 39% 43%  
54 0.9% 3% Last Result
55 0.1% 3%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.6%  
44 11% 98%  
45 8% 87%  
46 24% 79%  
47 32% 55% Median
48 16% 23%  
49 4% 7%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 2% 97%  
43 3% 95%  
44 11% 92%  
45 32% 82%  
46 20% 50% Median
47 29% 30% Last Result
48 1.2% 1.5%  
49 0% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 1.2% 99.4%  
37 0.8% 98%  
38 40% 98%  
39 12% 58% Median
40 35% 46%  
41 4% 10%  
42 0.7% 7% Last Result
43 2% 6%  
44 0.3% 4%  
45 0.1% 3%  
46 3% 3%  
47 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 2% 100%  
32 1.0% 98%  
33 3% 97%  
34 3% 94%  
35 10% 92%  
36 42% 82%  
37 35% 40% Median
38 4% 5% Last Result
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.5%  
30 4% 97%  
31 0.5% 93%  
32 29% 92% Median
33 47% 64% Last Result
34 10% 16%  
35 5% 7%  
36 0.4% 1.2%  
37 0.1% 0.8%  
38 0.7% 0.7%  
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.7%  
23 3% 98.7%  
24 17% 95%  
25 1.3% 78%  
26 38% 77% Median
27 33% 39%  
28 4% 5% Last Result
29 0.4% 1.1%  
30 0.7% 0.7%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations