Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 11 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.5% 18.2–20.9% 17.8–21.4% 17.5–21.7% 16.8–22.4%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.8% 11.7–14.0% 11.4–14.4% 11.1–14.7% 10.6–15.3%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.4–13.9% 9.9–14.5%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.4% 9.4–11.5% 9.1–11.9% 8.9–12.1% 8.4–12.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.7% 8.7–10.8% 8.5–11.1% 8.2–11.4% 7.8–12.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.9% 7.0–8.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.6–9.5% 6.2–10.0%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.8%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.9% 5.2–6.8% 4.9–7.1% 4.8–7.3% 4.4–7.8%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.3% 3.7–5.1% 3.5–5.4% 3.4–5.6% 3.1–6.0%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 2.9–5.7%
50Plus 3.1% 2.8% 2.3–3.4% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.8–4.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.3–3.4%
DENK 2.1% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.0–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 31 28–31 28–32 27–32 24–34
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–22 17–22 17–22 16–22
Democraten 66 19 20 17–21 16–21 16–21 15–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–17 14–18 14–18 13–19
GroenLinks 14 14 14–16 14–17 13–17 11–18
Socialistische Partij 14 12 11–12 10–13 9–14 9–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–11
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 7–10 7–10 7–11 7–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–8 5–9 4–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 5–7 4–7 4–8 3–8
50Plus 4 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–5
DENK 3 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 0.9% 99.5%  
26 0.9% 98.5%  
27 1.4% 98%  
28 14% 96%  
29 18% 83%  
30 9% 65%  
31 49% 56% Median
32 6% 7%  
33 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
34 0.4% 0.8%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 1.5% 99.9%  
17 47% 98%  
18 3% 51% Median
19 11% 48%  
20 10% 37% Last Result
21 15% 27%  
22 12% 12%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.0%  
17 19% 94%  
18 6% 75%  
19 15% 69% Last Result
20 10% 54% Median
21 44% 44%  
22 0.3% 0.8%  
23 0.5% 0.5%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 51% 98% Median
15 9% 47%  
16 22% 38%  
17 8% 16%  
18 6% 7%  
19 2% 2% Last Result
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.1% 100%  
12 1.2% 98.9%  
13 2% 98%  
14 69% 95% Last Result, Median
15 15% 26%  
16 4% 11%  
17 5% 7%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 7% 97%  
11 21% 90%  
12 59% 69% Median
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3% Last Result
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.6% 99.8%  
7 7% 99.2%  
8 19% 92%  
9 16% 73% Last Result
10 50% 57% Median
11 6% 6%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 13% 99.7%  
8 10% 86%  
9 9% 76%  
10 64% 67% Median
11 1.4% 3%  
12 0.3% 1.3%  
13 1.0% 1.0%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 10% 99.4% Last Result
6 51% 89% Median
7 31% 38%  
8 3% 7%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 2% 100%  
4 4% 98%  
5 6% 95% Last Result
6 19% 89%  
7 67% 70% Median
8 3% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.9% 100%  
3 57% 99.1% Median
4 29% 42% Last Result
5 12% 14%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100%  
2 13% 99.0%  
3 65% 86% Last Result, Median
4 21% 22%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 79% 96% Median
3 15% 17% Last Result
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 86 100% 83–87 82–88 81–89 79–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 82 97% 77–82 76–82 75–83 74–84
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 40% 74–80 74–80 73–81 72–82
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 77 70% 73–78 73–80 72–80 70–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 24% 71–76 70–77 70–78 69–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 0.4% 68–72 66–74 66–74 65–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 63 0% 62–67 62–68 61–69 60–70
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 62–66 61–68 60–68 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 66 0% 62–66 61–66 60–67 59–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 58–63 58–64 57–65 57–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 54–62 54–62 54–62 51–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 56–61 55–61 53–62 53–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 54–59 54–60 54–61 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 55 0% 52–56 52–57 51–59 49–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 51–56 51–57 50–58 50–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 45 0% 44–46 43–48 43–50 41–51
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 45 0% 41–45 40–46 40–46 38–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 36–41 35–41 35–41 34–43
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 32–36 32–37 31–37 30–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 30 0% 30–33 28–34 28–34 27–35
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 23–27 23–27 22–28 21–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.3%  
81 3% 99.0%  
82 3% 96%  
83 18% 93%  
84 8% 75%  
85 6% 67% Median
86 45% 61%  
87 8% 16%  
88 5% 9%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 2% Last Result
91 1.2% 1.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 3% 97% Majority
77 19% 95%  
78 3% 76%  
79 12% 73%  
80 7% 61%  
81 3% 54% Median
82 47% 51%  
83 4% 5%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.9% 99.6%  
73 3% 98.7%  
74 6% 95%  
75 49% 89%  
76 7% 40% Median, Majority
77 7% 33% Last Result
78 3% 26%  
79 3% 23%  
80 17% 20%  
81 3% 3%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 0.4% 99.1%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 20% 97%  
74 4% 77%  
75 2% 72%  
76 5% 70% Median, Majority
77 46% 65%  
78 10% 19%  
79 4% 9%  
80 3% 5% Last Result
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.6% 0.6%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 1.0% 99.5%  
70 5% 98.5%  
71 6% 94%  
72 46% 87%  
73 7% 41% Median
74 4% 34% Last Result
75 7% 31%  
76 17% 24% Majority
77 4% 7%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.8% 99.9%  
66 5% 99.1%  
67 2% 94%  
68 5% 93%  
69 16% 88%  
70 9% 72%  
71 4% 63% Median
72 49% 59%  
73 3% 10%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.5% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4% Last Result, Majority
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 1.2% 99.8%  
61 3% 98.6%  
62 45% 96%  
63 7% 50% Median
64 6% 43%  
65 4% 37%  
66 20% 33%  
67 6% 14%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.7%  
60 3% 98.9%  
61 3% 96%  
62 15% 93%  
63 7% 78%  
64 3% 71% Median
65 48% 68%  
66 11% 20% Last Result
67 4% 10%  
68 4% 6%  
69 0.2% 2%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.4% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 2% 99.0%  
61 6% 97%  
62 16% 91%  
63 11% 76%  
64 3% 65%  
65 9% 61% Median
66 48% 52%  
67 1.4% 4%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 4% 99.5%  
58 7% 96%  
59 7% 89%  
60 9% 82%  
61 44% 73% Last Result, Median
62 3% 29%  
63 17% 26%  
64 4% 9%  
65 4% 5%  
66 0.5% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.7%  
52 0.1% 99.3%  
53 1.4% 99.2%  
54 15% 98%  
55 7% 83%  
56 6% 76%  
57 10% 69%  
58 10% 60%  
59 4% 50%  
60 1.4% 46%  
61 1.2% 44% Last Result, Median
62 43% 43%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 4% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 96%  
55 2% 95%  
56 12% 93%  
57 4% 81%  
58 48% 77% Last Result, Median
59 16% 29%  
60 3% 13%  
61 6% 11%  
62 4% 5%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.5%  
54 10% 99.3%  
55 7% 89%  
56 9% 82%  
57 2% 73% Last Result
58 45% 70% Median
59 19% 26%  
60 2% 7%  
61 3% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.5% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.4%  
51 2% 99.1%  
52 8% 97%  
53 20% 89%  
54 13% 69%  
55 45% 56% Median
56 4% 11%  
57 3% 8%  
58 1.4% 4%  
59 2% 3%  
60 1.4% 1.5%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 4% 99.6%  
51 6% 95%  
52 4% 89%  
53 8% 85%  
54 7% 77% Last Result
55 56% 70% Median
56 6% 14%  
57 3% 8%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 0.6% 99.0%  
43 6% 98%  
44 11% 92%  
45 66% 81% Median
46 5% 15%  
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 1.2% 4%  
50 2% 3%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0% 0.1% Last Result
53 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.7%  
39 1.2% 99.3%  
40 5% 98%  
41 15% 93%  
42 8% 78%  
43 5% 71%  
44 10% 66% Median
45 50% 56%  
46 4% 6%  
47 0.4% 2% Last Result
48 2% 2%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.4% 100%  
34 1.1% 99.6%  
35 7% 98%  
36 2% 92%  
37 15% 90%  
38 8% 75%  
39 12% 67%  
40 6% 56%  
41 47% 49% Median
42 1.4% 2% Last Result
43 0.6% 1.0%  
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.8%  
31 2% 98%  
32 6% 96%  
33 22% 90%  
34 4% 68% Median
35 48% 64%  
36 6% 16%  
37 7% 9%  
38 2% 2% Last Result
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.9%  
28 4% 98.8%  
29 2% 95%  
30 50% 93% Median
31 25% 43%  
32 4% 18%  
33 5% 14% Last Result
34 7% 9%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 2% 99.9%  
22 1.3% 98%  
23 12% 97%  
24 63% 85% Median
25 4% 22%  
26 8% 18%  
27 7% 10%  
28 3% 3% Last Result
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations