Opinion Poll by Peil.nl, 24 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 20.7% 19.7–21.6% 19.5–21.9% 19.3–22.2% 18.8–22.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.7% 11.9–13.5% 11.7–13.7% 11.5–13.9% 11.2–14.3%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.0% 11.3–12.8% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.5–13.6%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 10.0–11.4% 9.8–11.6% 9.6–11.8% 9.3–12.2%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.3% 8.7–10.1% 8.5–10.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 8.0% 7.4–8.7% 7.2–8.9% 7.1–9.0% 6.8–9.4%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 7.3% 6.8–8.0% 6.6–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.2–8.6%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 5.3% 4.8–5.9% 4.7–6.1% 4.6–6.2% 4.4–6.5%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.6–4.5% 3.4–4.6% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.3% 2.9–3.8% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.3%
50Plus 3.1% 2.7% 2.3–3.1% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.3% 2.0–3.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
DENK 2.1% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 31 30–35 30–35 30–35 28–35
Democraten 66 19 19 18–20 18–21 17–22 17–22
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 17–21 15–21 15–21 15–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 15–17 15–17 15–17 14–17
GroenLinks 14 15 13–15 13–15 12–16 12–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 7 7–9 7–9 7–9 6–9
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
50Plus 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
DENK 3 3 2–3 2–4 1–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 2% 100%  
29 0.4% 98%  
30 32% 98%  
31 34% 66% Median
32 10% 31%  
33 3% 21% Last Result
34 9% 19%  
35 10% 10%  
36 0% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 4% 99.6%  
18 44% 95%  
19 29% 52% Last Result, Median
20 15% 23%  
21 5% 8%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 8% 100%  
16 0.8% 92%  
17 13% 92%  
18 35% 79% Median
19 19% 44%  
20 5% 25% Last Result
21 20% 20%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 16% 99.3%  
16 50% 83% Median
17 34% 34%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 4% 99.9%  
13 20% 96%  
14 12% 76% Last Result
15 59% 64% Median
16 3% 4%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100% Last Result
10 21% 99.8%  
11 18% 79%  
12 22% 61% Median
13 31% 39%  
14 7% 8%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 4% 100%  
10 32% 96%  
11 27% 64% Median
12 37% 38%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 60% 99.4% Median
8 13% 39%  
9 26% 26%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 15% 99.4% Last Result
6 80% 84% Median
7 4% 4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 31% 99.9%  
5 38% 69% Last Result, Median
6 30% 31%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 40% 99.9%  
4 33% 60% Last Result, Median
5 27% 28%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 37% 99.9%  
3 63% 63% Last Result, Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 24% 97%  
3 67% 73% Last Result, Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 100% 83–88 83–88 83–88 83–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 82 100% 81–86 81–86 81–87 79–88
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie 80 77 94% 76–79 75–79 75–79 73–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 62% 74–79 74–79 74–79 73–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 40% 71–76 71–76 71–76 70–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 72 0.2% 68–75 68–75 68–75 68–75
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 67 0% 64–69 64–69 64–70 63–71
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 66 0% 64–68 64–68 64–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 66 0% 64–69 63–69 63–69 63–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 61 0% 60–64 60–65 59–65 57–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 61 0% 61–64 60–64 60–64 59–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 58 0% 58–62 58–62 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 59 0% 58–62 58–62 57–62 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 58 0% 56–60 56–61 56–61 56–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 55 0% 53–58 53–58 53–58 53–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 46–50 46–51 45–51 45–52
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 47 0% 45–49 45–49 45–49 44–51
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 43 0% 41–46 41–46 41–46 39–47
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 34–36 33–37 33–38 33–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 33 0% 32–34 32–36 31–36 31–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 28 0% 27–29 27–30 27–30 25–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 25% 99.6%  
84 10% 75%  
85 7% 65%  
86 7% 59% Median
87 23% 52%  
88 27% 29%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 2% 100%  
80 0.3% 98%  
81 28% 98%  
82 21% 70%  
83 1.4% 49% Median
84 8% 48%  
85 18% 39% Last Result
86 17% 21%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.8% 0.9%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – Socialistische Partij – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.7% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.2%  
75 5% 99.0%  
76 34% 94% Majority
77 11% 60%  
78 30% 49% Median
79 17% 19%  
80 2% 2% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.3% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 31% 99.4%  
75 6% 68% Median
76 16% 62% Majority
77 6% 46% Last Result
78 15% 40%  
79 24% 25%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.5% 0.5%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.3% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 24% 99.4%  
72 9% 75% Median
73 14% 66%  
74 9% 52% Last Result
75 3% 43%  
76 38% 40% Majority
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.8% 0.8%  
79 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 25% 99.8%  
69 1.4% 74%  
70 4% 73%  
71 12% 69% Median
72 25% 57%  
73 11% 32%  
74 8% 21%  
75 13% 13%  
76 0.2% 0.2% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 2% 100%  
64 24% 98%  
65 12% 74%  
66 5% 62% Median
67 30% 57%  
68 11% 27%  
69 12% 16%  
70 4% 4%  
71 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.7% 99.8%  
64 9% 99.0%  
65 6% 90%  
66 56% 83% Last Result
67 5% 27% Median
68 18% 22%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.8% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 7% 99.7%  
64 34% 92%  
65 8% 58% Median
66 3% 50%  
67 13% 47%  
68 3% 34%  
69 30% 31%  
70 0.8% 1.0%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 2% 100%  
58 0% 98%  
59 3% 98%  
60 21% 95%  
61 25% 74% Last Result
62 2% 50% Median
63 12% 48%  
64 27% 36%  
65 6% 9%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.9% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 1.3% 99.9%  
60 5% 98.6%  
61 61% 93% Last Result, Median
62 5% 33%  
63 5% 28%  
64 21% 23%  
65 1.0% 2%  
66 0.8% 0.8%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 3% 99.4%  
58 48% 97% Last Result, Median
59 18% 49%  
60 6% 31%  
61 14% 25%  
62 10% 12%  
63 1.5% 2%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 2% 100%  
57 2% 98%  
58 21% 96%  
59 35% 75% Median
60 18% 40%  
61 10% 23% Last Result
62 10% 13%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 29% 99.6%  
57 15% 71% Last Result, Median
58 28% 56%  
59 5% 29%  
60 15% 24%  
61 8% 9%  
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.5% 0.5%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 25% 99.8%  
54 7% 75% Last Result, Median
55 35% 68%  
56 5% 33%  
57 9% 28%  
58 19% 20%  
59 0.1% 1.0%  
60 0.9% 0.9%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 3% 99.9%  
46 35% 97%  
47 3% 62% Median
48 38% 59%  
49 10% 21%  
50 1.3% 11%  
51 9% 10%  
52 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.8% 99.9%  
45 21% 99.2%  
46 23% 78%  
47 28% 56% Last Result, Median
48 10% 28%  
49 16% 18%  
50 0.2% 2%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 2% 100%  
40 0% 98%  
41 21% 98%  
42 8% 78% Last Result
43 28% 70% Median
44 18% 42%  
45 3% 23%  
46 19% 20%  
47 0.8% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 8% 99.6%  
34 38% 91%  
35 15% 53% Median
36 29% 38%  
37 4% 9%  
38 3% 5% Last Result
39 2% 2%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 4% 99.7%  
32 23% 96%  
33 53% 73% Last Result, Median
34 11% 19%  
35 1.4% 9%  
36 7% 7%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 0.9% 99.4%  
27 41% 98%  
28 17% 57% Last Result, Median
29 32% 40%  
30 8% 8%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations