Opinion Poll by GfK for EenVandaag, 22–25 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 18.2–20.6% 17.8–20.9% 17.6–21.2% 17.0–21.8%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 15.4% 14.3–16.5% 14.0–16.8% 13.8–17.1% 13.3–17.6%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.3% 10.4–12.3% 10.2–12.6% 10.0–12.9% 9.5–13.4%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.7% 9.8–11.7% 9.5–11.9% 9.3–12.2% 8.9–12.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–11.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.8%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.6% 5.9–7.5% 5.7–7.7% 5.6–7.9% 5.3–8.3%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.1% 2.6–4.3% 2.4–4.6%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.7% 2.2–3.2% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.8%
DENK 2.1% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 29–32 28–34 26–34 26–34
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 23 21–25 21–26 21–26 20–27
Democraten 66 19 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 16 14–18 14–18 14–18 14–20
GroenLinks 14 14 14–17 14–18 13–18 13–18
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 5–7 4–7 4–7
Forum voor Democratie 2 6 5–7 5–7 4–7 3–8
50Plus 4 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 3–4 2–5 2–5 2–5
DENK 3 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 3% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 97%  
28 5% 96%  
29 17% 92%  
30 32% 75% Median
31 18% 43%  
32 16% 25%  
33 0.2% 9% Last Result
34 9% 9%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.7% 100% Last Result
21 22% 99.3%  
22 10% 77%  
23 22% 67% Median
24 22% 45%  
25 15% 22%  
26 6% 8%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.8%  
16 7% 98.6%  
17 29% 91%  
18 43% 62% Median
19 16% 19% Last Result
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 32% 99.6%  
15 5% 67%  
16 25% 62% Median
17 26% 37%  
18 9% 11%  
19 0.9% 1.4% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.8%  
14 53% 97% Last Result, Median
15 19% 43%  
16 6% 25%  
17 11% 18%  
18 7% 7%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 14% 99.6%  
11 37% 85% Median
12 25% 48%  
13 16% 24%  
14 6% 8% Last Result
15 1.5% 2%  
16 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.5% 100%  
9 48% 98.5% Last Result
10 32% 51% Median
11 3% 19%  
12 15% 16%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 47% 98% Last Result
6 33% 51% Median
7 16% 18%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 4% 100%  
5 21% 96% Last Result
6 68% 75% Median
7 7% 7%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0.7% 100%  
4 4% 99.3%  
5 18% 95%  
6 57% 77% Median
7 20% 21%  
8 0.6% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.2% 100%  
4 38% 98.8% Last Result
5 27% 61% Median
6 34% 34%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 51% 95% Last Result, Median
4 36% 44%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 43% 100%  
1 57% 57% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 83 100% 81–90 81–91 81–91 80–91
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 79 98.8% 77–83 76–83 76–83 75–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 78 97% 78–81 77–81 75–81 75–84
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 76 55% 73–79 73–81 73–81 73–82
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 75 36% 74–77 74–78 72–78 71–79
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 69 0% 67–73 67–74 66–74 65–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 69 0% 67–72 67–72 67–72 65–73
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 64 0% 61–67 60–70 60–70 60–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 64 0% 62–67 62–68 61–68 60–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 60 0% 59–64 58–64 57–64 56–64
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 55–60 55–60 55–60 53–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 54–59 54–60 54–60 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 55–60 54–60 53–60 52–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 54–59 53–60 52–60 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 52 0% 51–55 50–56 49–56 47–56
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 46 0% 44–49 44–51 44–51 41–51
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 43 0% 42–46 41–46 41–47 40–48
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 40 0% 38–43 38–43 36–43 36–43
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 34 0% 31–35 31–36 31–37 31–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 29–34 29–34 29–36 28–36
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 26 0% 24–28 24–28 24–30 23–30

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.7% 99.8%  
81 26% 99.0%  
82 1.3% 74%  
83 32% 72%  
84 2% 40% Median
85 2% 39%  
86 7% 36%  
87 0.4% 29%  
88 13% 29%  
89 1.4% 16%  
90 5% 14% Last Result
91 9% 9%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 7% 98.8% Majority
77 20% 92%  
78 18% 72%  
79 5% 54%  
80 3% 49% Median
81 15% 46%  
82 21% 31%  
83 10% 10%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.6%  
76 1.3% 97% Majority
77 2% 96% Last Result
78 53% 94% Median
79 9% 41%  
80 13% 32%  
81 17% 19%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0% 2%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 21% 99.7%  
74 10% 79%  
75 14% 69% Median
76 35% 55% Majority
77 5% 19%  
78 4% 15%  
79 3% 11%  
80 0.8% 8% Last Result
81 5% 7%  
82 1.3% 1.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 24% 95% Last Result
75 35% 71% Median
76 3% 36% Majority
77 25% 33%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.5%  
66 2% 98.7%  
67 24% 96%  
68 5% 72%  
69 29% 67%  
70 5% 38% Median
71 3% 32%  
72 6% 30%  
73 14% 24%  
74 10% 10%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0% Last Result, Majority

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.0% 99.4%  
67 21% 98%  
68 5% 77%  
69 28% 72% Median
70 9% 44%  
71 18% 35%  
72 15% 17% Last Result
73 2% 2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0% Majority

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 5% 99.8%  
61 19% 95%  
62 3% 76%  
63 16% 73%  
64 18% 57% Median
65 15% 39%  
66 10% 24% Last Result
67 7% 14%  
68 0.3% 6%  
69 0.7% 6%  
70 5% 6%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.7%  
60 2% 99.7%  
61 2% 98%  
62 39% 96%  
63 5% 56%  
64 15% 52% Median
65 7% 36%  
66 7% 29%  
67 13% 22%  
68 9% 9%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 99.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 35% 95%  
60 12% 60% Median
61 20% 48% Last Result
62 4% 28%  
63 13% 24%  
64 10% 10%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.5%  
54 1.4% 99.1%  
55 8% 98%  
56 16% 89%  
57 4% 73%  
58 30% 70% Median
59 3% 40%  
60 35% 36%  
61 2% 2% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 1.4% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 23% 98%  
55 21% 75%  
56 5% 54% Median
57 30% 49%  
58 8% 19%  
59 2% 11%  
60 9% 9%  
61 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.9% 99.7%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 3% 97%  
55 5% 94%  
56 32% 90%  
57 29% 58% Median
58 6% 29% Last Result
59 0.8% 23%  
60 22% 23%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.7%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 2% 97%  
54 16% 95%  
55 43% 78% Median
56 8% 36%  
57 15% 28% Last Result
58 2% 13%  
59 1.2% 10%  
60 9% 9%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.9% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 98.9%  
49 2% 98%  
50 6% 96%  
51 34% 90%  
52 20% 56% Median
53 13% 36%  
54 12% 23% Last Result
55 1.2% 10%  
56 9% 9%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.5% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.5%  
43 1.2% 99.2%  
44 23% 98%  
45 17% 75%  
46 22% 58% Median
47 6% 36%  
48 20% 30%  
49 0.7% 11%  
50 0.6% 10%  
51 9% 9%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 6% 99.5%  
42 23% 93%  
43 28% 70%  
44 27% 42% Median
45 2% 15%  
46 8% 13%  
47 4% 4% Last Result
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.4% 100%  
36 2% 99.6%  
37 2% 97%  
38 14% 95%  
39 10% 81%  
40 29% 70% Median
41 15% 41%  
42 4% 27% Last Result
43 22% 22%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 14% 99.6%  
32 26% 85%  
33 3% 59%  
34 21% 57% Median
35 25% 35%  
36 6% 10%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
39 0.3% 0.3%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.5% 100%  
29 19% 99.5%  
30 15% 81%  
31 25% 66%  
32 12% 41% Median
33 19% 29% Last Result
34 6% 10%  
35 1.2% 4%  
36 3% 3%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.9%  
24 19% 98.6%  
25 27% 79%  
26 37% 52% Median
27 3% 16%  
28 9% 13% Last Result
29 1.2% 4%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations