Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 5 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 21.9% 20.3–23.7% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.9% 11.6–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.0–15.1% 10.4–15.9%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
GroenLinks 9.1% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
DENK 2.1% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 34 29–36 29–37 29–37 29–38
Democraten 66 19 21 18–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 18 16–18 16–19 14–21 14–21
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 15 12–17 12–17 11–20 11–20
GroenLinks 14 14 11–15 11–16 11–17 11–17
Socialistische Partij 14 9 8–10 8–11 7–12 7–12
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 7–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–10
Partij voor de Dieren 5 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9
ChristenUnie 5 5 4–7 4–7 3–7 3–7
50Plus 4 5 4–5 4–7 3–7 3–8
DENK 3 4 3–6 3–7 3–7 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–3 2–3 1–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 22% 99.8%  
30 3% 78%  
31 5% 75%  
32 8% 70%  
33 7% 62% Last Result
34 25% 55% Median
35 5% 30%  
36 16% 25%  
37 8% 10%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 0.2% 99.8%  
17 1.0% 99.6%  
18 19% 98.6%  
19 19% 80% Last Result
20 6% 61%  
21 25% 55% Median
22 29% 30%  
23 0.6% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0% 0.2%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 1.2% 96%  
16 28% 95%  
17 16% 67%  
18 43% 51% Median
19 4% 8%  
20 0.4% 4% Last Result
21 3% 3%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 4% 100%  
12 6% 96%  
13 30% 90%  
14 8% 59%  
15 25% 51% Median
16 1.2% 26%  
17 20% 25%  
18 0.6% 5%  
19 0.1% 4% Last Result
20 4% 4%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 21% 99.8%  
12 8% 79%  
13 11% 71%  
14 26% 60% Last Result, Median
15 27% 34%  
16 4% 7%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 3% 99.8%  
8 16% 97%  
9 63% 81% Median
10 8% 18%  
11 6% 10%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
15 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 20% 99.8%  
8 8% 80%  
9 22% 72% Median
10 9% 49%  
11 38% 40%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.3%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.4% 100%  
5 3% 99.6%  
6 21% 96%  
7 40% 75% Median
8 23% 35%  
9 9% 12% Last Result
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
6 14% 99.0%  
7 50% 85% Median
8 12% 35%  
9 22% 23%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 4% 100%  
4 9% 96%  
5 49% 87% Last Result, Median
6 22% 37%  
7 15% 15%  
8 0.2% 0.4%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 5% 99.9%  
4 21% 95% Last Result
5 66% 75% Median
6 1.5% 8%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 24% 99.9% Last Result
4 31% 76% Median
5 35% 45%  
6 4% 10%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 63% 96% Median
3 29% 34% Last Result
4 4% 4%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 86 100% 83–92 83–92 82–93 81–93
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 81 99.5% 76–85 76–85 76–85 76–86
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 60% 73–83 73–83 71–83 69–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 74 38% 71–80 71–80 69–80 68–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 73 25% 69–77 69–77 69–78 67–78
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 70 0.9% 65–75 64–75 64–75 64–77
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 69 0% 64–72 64–72 63–72 63–72
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 65 0% 60–70 60–70 59–70 57–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 67 0% 60–69 60–69 60–69 59–70
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 63 0% 58–67 58–67 57–67 55–68
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 61 0% 56–66 54–66 54–66 54–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 60 0% 58–63 57–65 57–65 55–67
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 60 0% 55–65 55–65 54–65 53–65
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 58 0% 53–62 53–62 52–62 51–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 56 0% 49–59 49–59 49–60 48–61
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 48 0% 42–51 42–53 42–53 42–53
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 39–46 39–46 38–47 38–47
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 42 0% 36–43 36–44 36–44 36–46
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 35 0% 32–38 31–38 31–39 30–39
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 27 0% 24–30 24–30 24–32 24–32
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 21 0% 20–25 20–25 18–27 17–27

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 1.1% 99.6%  
82 1.2% 98.6%  
83 21% 97%  
84 6% 76%  
85 9% 70%  
86 22% 61%  
87 1.5% 39%  
88 5% 37%  
89 4% 32% Median
90 7% 28% Last Result
91 0.5% 21%  
92 16% 20%  
93 5% 5%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 23% 99.5% Majority
77 4% 76%  
78 3% 72%  
79 6% 69%  
80 7% 63%  
81 19% 56%  
82 7% 37% Median
83 0.3% 30%  
84 14% 30%  
85 16% 16% Last Result
86 0.6% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 2% 100%  
70 0.6% 98%  
71 0.3% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 22% 95%  
74 7% 73%  
75 6% 66%  
76 19% 60% Majority
77 3% 41% Last Result
78 5% 38% Median
79 9% 33%  
80 9% 24%  
81 0.2% 16%  
82 0.6% 15%  
83 14% 15%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 22% 95%  
72 9% 73%  
73 5% 64%  
74 18% 59% Last Result
75 3% 41%  
76 15% 38% Median, Majority
77 7% 23%  
78 0.4% 16%  
79 0.2% 15%  
80 15% 15%  
81 0% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 1.2% 99.4%  
69 23% 98%  
70 1.5% 75%  
71 4% 73%  
72 6% 69%  
73 14% 64%  
74 3% 50%  
75 21% 46% Median
76 0.8% 25% Last Result, Majority
77 21% 24%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 6% 99.9%  
65 15% 94%  
66 1.2% 79%  
67 0.3% 77%  
68 6% 77%  
69 6% 71%  
70 25% 65%  
71 2% 41% Median
72 14% 39%  
73 6% 25%  
74 0.8% 19%  
75 18% 18%  
76 0.2% 0.9% Majority
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.6%  
64 24% 97%  
65 2% 73%  
66 7% 71%  
67 2% 64%  
68 9% 62%  
69 27% 53%  
70 0.3% 26% Median
71 4% 25% Last Result
72 21% 21%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 2% 98%  
60 21% 96%  
61 8% 74% Last Result
62 5% 66%  
63 5% 62%  
64 2% 57%  
65 21% 54% Median
66 5% 33%  
67 2% 28%  
68 4% 26%  
69 7% 22%  
70 15% 15%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.8%  
60 23% 98%  
61 1.4% 75%  
62 2% 74%  
63 5% 72%  
64 12% 67%  
65 2% 55%  
66 1.1% 53%  
67 29% 52% Median
68 0.9% 23%  
69 22% 23%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0% 0.1% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.3%  
57 4% 99.1%  
58 22% 95% Last Result
59 8% 74%  
60 6% 66%  
61 4% 59%  
62 4% 56%  
63 23% 52% Median
64 1.3% 28%  
65 5% 27%  
66 6% 22%  
67 16% 17%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 5% 100%  
55 0.1% 95%  
56 17% 95%  
57 0.4% 78%  
58 5% 77%  
59 2% 73%  
60 5% 71%  
61 28% 66%  
62 1.0% 38% Median
63 2% 37%  
64 17% 35%  
65 1.0% 17%  
66 16% 16% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0.3% 0.3%  
69 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.5%  
56 0.7% 99.2%  
57 4% 98%  
58 23% 94%  
59 10% 72%  
60 20% 62%  
61 3% 42% Last Result
62 6% 39% Median
63 23% 33%  
64 5% 10%  
65 5% 5%  
66 0.1% 0.7%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 2% 99.9%  
54 2% 98%  
55 21% 95%  
56 0.6% 74%  
57 8% 74% Last Result
58 7% 66%  
59 5% 59%  
60 17% 54% Median
61 9% 37%  
62 7% 28%  
63 0.5% 21%  
64 6% 21%  
65 15% 15%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.7% 99.9%  
52 4% 99.2%  
53 21% 95%  
54 1.4% 74% Last Result
55 9% 73%  
56 6% 64%  
57 6% 58%  
58 18% 51% Median
59 12% 34%  
60 0.8% 22%  
61 4% 21%  
62 16% 17%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 2% 100%  
49 21% 98%  
50 2% 77%  
51 2% 75%  
52 0.9% 73%  
53 2% 72%  
54 2% 70%  
55 15% 68%  
56 5% 53% Median
57 22% 49%  
58 5% 26%  
59 16% 21%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 23% 99.9%  
43 2% 77%  
44 0.8% 75%  
45 0.4% 74%  
46 9% 73%  
47 10% 65%  
48 8% 55%  
49 0.5% 46% Median
50 6% 46%  
51 31% 40%  
52 4% 10% Last Result
53 5% 6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 26% 97%  
40 3% 71%  
41 4% 68%  
42 33% 64%  
43 5% 32% Median
44 4% 27%  
45 0.8% 23%  
46 19% 22%  
47 3% 3% Last Result
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 23% 99.7%  
37 5% 77%  
38 2% 72%  
39 2% 70%  
40 8% 69%  
41 8% 61% Median
42 36% 53% Last Result
43 8% 17%  
44 9% 9%  
45 0.2% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.6%  
47 0% 0.5%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.7%  
31 4% 98%  
32 6% 94%  
33 20% 88%  
34 10% 68%  
35 28% 58%  
36 6% 30% Median
37 3% 23%  
38 16% 20% Last Result
39 4% 4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 11% 99.6%  
25 27% 88%  
26 4% 62%  
27 18% 58% Median
28 9% 40%  
29 1.4% 31%  
30 25% 30%  
31 0.8% 5%  
32 4% 4%  
33 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
34 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 2% 100%  
18 2% 98%  
19 0.8% 96%  
20 32% 95%  
21 25% 63%  
22 2% 37% Median
23 11% 35%  
24 1.3% 24%  
25 18% 23%  
26 0.4% 5%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
29 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations