Opinion Poll by I&O Research, 11 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 17.9–20.7% 17.6–21.1% 17.2–21.5% 16.6–22.2%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 12.3% 11.2–13.5% 10.9–13.9% 10.7–14.2% 10.2–14.8%
Democraten 66 12.2% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.4–13.9% 9.9–14.5%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.5% 9.5–11.7% 9.2–12.0% 9.0–12.3% 8.5–12.9%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 9.6% 8.7–10.7% 8.4–11.1% 8.2–11.3% 7.7–11.9%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 6.6% 5.8–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.4–8.0% 5.0–8.5%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.6% 5.8–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.4–8.0% 5.0–8.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.4% 5.6–7.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.2–7.9% 4.9–8.4%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.4% 3.8–5.2% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.1–6.1%
50Plus 3.1% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 2.9–5.7%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 3.9% 3.3–4.6% 3.1–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.7–5.5%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.2% 1.7–2.8% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.3–3.4%
DENK 2.1% 1.6% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 29 27–32 27–32 26–32 26–33
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 19 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–22
Democraten 66 19 18 16–20 16–21 16–21 14–22
GroenLinks 14 17 16–18 15–18 14–19 13–19
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–17
Socialistische Partij 14 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–12
Partij van de Arbeid 9 10 8–12 8–12 8–12 7–12
ChristenUnie 5 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–8
50Plus 4 6 5–7 5–7 5–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 3–8
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 1–5
DENK 3 2 1–3 1–4 1–4 1–4

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 5% 99.7%  
27 29% 95%  
28 3% 66%  
29 22% 63% Median
30 20% 41%  
31 11% 21%  
32 10% 10%  
33 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 27% 98%  
18 17% 71%  
19 26% 54% Median
20 20% 28% Last Result
21 7% 8%  
22 1.4% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.5% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.5%  
16 21% 98.6%  
17 15% 78%  
18 15% 63% Median
19 37% 49% Last Result
20 5% 12%  
21 5% 7%  
22 1.2% 1.2%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.9% 99.9%  
14 3% 99.0% Last Result
15 4% 97%  
16 34% 93%  
17 39% 59% Median
18 17% 20%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 7% 99.3%  
13 4% 92%  
14 52% 88% Median
15 18% 37%  
16 9% 19%  
17 9% 9%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 4% 99.8%  
9 28% 96%  
10 43% 69% Median
11 22% 26%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0% Last Result

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 27% 99.8%  
9 20% 73%  
10 5% 52% Median
11 31% 48%  
12 17% 17%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 1.1% 99.9%  
8 18% 98.8%  
9 30% 81% Last Result
10 32% 51% Median
11 7% 19%  
12 11% 12%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 20% 99.4% Last Result
6 35% 80% Median
7 27% 45%  
8 17% 18%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.4% 100% Last Result
5 24% 98.6%  
6 46% 74% Median
7 25% 28%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 1.0% 100%  
4 7% 99.0%  
5 45% 92% Last Result, Median
6 29% 46%  
7 16% 17%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 20% 98.8%  
3 57% 79% Last Result, Median
4 20% 22%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 10% 99.9%  
2 65% 90% Median
3 20% 25% Last Result
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 90 85 100% 82–88 81–88 81–88 79–89
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 77 87% 75–81 75–81 75–81 73–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 75 35% 73–77 72–78 72–78 70–81
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 75 48% 72–78 69–78 69–78 69–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 72 2% 70–74 70–75 70–75 67–78
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 68 0.1% 66–71 64–71 64–71 63–74
Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 65 0% 63–68 60–68 60–68 60–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 62 0% 59–65 59–65 59–66 58–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 62 0% 61–65 61–65 61–65 58–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 62 0% 59–65 59–65 59–65 58–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 59 0% 58–61 58–62 58–62 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 57 0% 54–59 52–59 52–60 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 56 0% 55–58 55–58 54–59 52–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 52–55 49–56 49–57 48–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 53 0% 52–55 51–55 51–56 49–59
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 41–46 40–46 40–46 40–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 39–45 39–45 39–46 37–46
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 36–41 35–41 35–41 35–44
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 33 0% 30–35 30–35 30–36 28–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 28–32 26–34 26–34 26–34
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.3%  
81 5% 98.9%  
82 6% 94%  
83 35% 88%  
84 3% 53% Median
85 13% 51%  
86 14% 38%  
87 9% 24%  
88 14% 15%  
89 0.7% 1.2%  
90 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.8% 99.4%  
75 11% 98.6%  
76 18% 87% Majority
77 21% 69% Median
78 22% 48%  
79 15% 26%  
80 1.1% 11%  
81 9% 10%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
86 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.9% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.1%  
72 6% 98.6%  
73 12% 92%  
74 16% 80%  
75 29% 64% Median
76 24% 35% Majority
77 1.0% 11% Last Result
78 8% 10%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.2%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 5% 100%  
70 0.2% 95%  
71 0.8% 95%  
72 6% 94%  
73 2% 88%  
74 27% 86%  
75 11% 59% Median
76 9% 48% Majority
77 23% 38%  
78 15% 16%  
79 0.2% 1.4%  
80 0.2% 1.2% Last Result
81 0.9% 1.0%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.9% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.1%  
69 1.1% 98.8%  
70 25% 98%  
71 8% 73%  
72 32% 65% Median
73 17% 32%  
74 7% 15% Last Result
75 6% 8%  
76 1.3% 2% Majority
77 0.2% 0.9%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0% 0.2%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 5% 99.4%  
65 1.3% 94%  
66 27% 93%  
67 14% 67% Median
68 16% 52%  
69 8% 36%  
70 13% 29%  
71 13% 16%  
72 0.4% 2%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.9% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – GroenLinks – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 5% 99.6%  
61 1.4% 94%  
62 2% 93%  
63 8% 91%  
64 23% 83%  
65 13% 60% Median
66 13% 47% Last Result
67 12% 34%  
68 20% 22%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 21% 99.0%  
60 20% 78%  
61 3% 58% Median
62 28% 55%  
63 8% 27%  
64 9% 19%  
65 8% 10%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.2%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.8%  
59 0.9% 98.9%  
60 0.3% 98%  
61 33% 98% Last Result
62 18% 65% Median
63 32% 47%  
64 3% 15%  
65 9% 11%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.2% 1.0%  
68 0.1% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.7%  
70 0.5% 0.5%  
71 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.3% 100%  
58 0.7% 99.6%  
59 12% 99.0%  
60 22% 87%  
61 3% 64%  
62 14% 61% Median
63 15% 47%  
64 21% 31%  
65 8% 10%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0% 0.2%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 98.9%  
57 0.4% 98%  
58 28% 98% Last Result
59 29% 70% Median
60 23% 40%  
61 8% 17%  
62 7% 9%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.2% 1.0%  
65 0.1% 0.8%  
66 0.4% 0.7%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.3% 100%  
52 7% 99.7%  
53 0.5% 92%  
54 5% 92%  
55 23% 87%  
56 12% 65%  
57 6% 53% Median
58 26% 47%  
59 17% 21%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.4% 1.5% Last Result
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0% 99.9%  
52 1.0% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 98.9%  
54 2% 98.5%  
55 37% 96%  
56 12% 59% Median
57 22% 47% Last Result
58 19% 24%  
59 3% 5%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 0.2% 1.3%  
62 0.4% 1.0%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 6% 99.4%  
50 0.6% 93%  
51 2% 93%  
52 18% 91%  
53 53% 74% Median
54 3% 21%  
55 9% 18%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.5% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 1.0% 99.9%  
50 0.6% 98.9%  
51 6% 98%  
52 24% 92%  
53 25% 68% Median
54 20% 43% Last Result
55 20% 23%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.2% 1.2%  
59 0.6% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 5% 99.7%  
41 14% 95%  
42 6% 81%  
43 24% 75% Median
44 25% 51%  
45 13% 25%  
46 10% 12%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 1.1% 99.2%  
39 10% 98%  
40 19% 88%  
41 4% 69%  
42 19% 65% Median
43 17% 46%  
44 15% 30%  
45 12% 15%  
46 3% 3%  
47 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 6% 99.7%  
36 13% 94%  
37 3% 81%  
38 18% 78%  
39 34% 60% Median
40 10% 25%  
41 13% 15%  
42 1.1% 2% Last Result
43 0.8% 1.4%  
44 0.2% 0.6%  
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.7%  
29 0.9% 99.5%  
30 20% 98.5%  
31 6% 79%  
32 18% 73% Median
33 30% 56%  
34 8% 25%  
35 14% 17%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.4% 1.2%  
38 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 5% 100%  
27 2% 95%  
28 8% 92%  
29 12% 84%  
30 16% 72% Median
31 26% 56%  
32 20% 30%  
33 2% 10% Last Result
34 8% 8%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.8%  
21 7% 99.1%  
22 17% 92%  
23 9% 75%  
24 21% 66% Median
25 18% 45%  
26 24% 27%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations