Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 11–15 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 21.3% 19.3% 17.7–21.0% 17.3–21.4% 16.9–21.9% 16.2–22.7%
Partij voor de Vrijheid 13.1% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.1%
Democraten 66 12.2% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.5–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 12.4% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
GroenLinks 9.1% 10.0% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.3–12.1% 7.8–12.7%
Socialistische Partij 9.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Partij van de Arbeid 5.7% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Forum voor Democratie 1.8% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
ChristenUnie 3.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.8%
Partij voor de Dieren 3.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.8%
50Plus 3.1% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 2.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
DENK 2.1% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie 33 30 27–30 27–32 27–32 26–33
Partij voor de Vrijheid 20 20 20–23 20–24 20–24 18–25
Democraten 66 19 19 17–19 16–20 16–20 14–22
Christen-Democratisch Appèl 19 14 14–19 12–19 12–19 11–19
GroenLinks 14 16 13–17 12–17 12–17 11–18
Socialistische Partij 14 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–17
Partij van de Arbeid 9 9 8–10 8–10 8–12 8–13
Forum voor Democratie 2 9 7–9 7–10 7–10 6–11
ChristenUnie 5 8 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–8
Partij voor de Dieren 5 6 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–8
50Plus 4 4 4–5 4–6 3–6 3–7
Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 3 2 2–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
DENK 3 1 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 1.3% 99.7%  
27 19% 98%  
28 9% 79%  
29 13% 71%  
30 51% 58% Median
31 1.2% 7%  
32 5% 6%  
33 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Vrijheid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Vrijheid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 0.2% 99.6%  
19 1.1% 99.3%  
20 62% 98% Last Result, Median
21 2% 36%  
22 1.1% 34%  
23 27% 32%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.6% 0.8%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Democraten 66

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Democraten 66 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.8%  
15 0.5% 99.2%  
16 8% 98.7%  
17 2% 91%  
18 17% 89%  
19 63% 72% Last Result, Median
20 9% 9%  
21 0% 0.6%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christen-Democratisch Appèl page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.7% 100%  
12 4% 99.2%  
13 1.0% 95%  
14 44% 94% Median
15 14% 50%  
16 17% 35%  
17 7% 18%  
18 0.3% 11%  
19 11% 11% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the GroenLinks page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 1.2% 100%  
12 5% 98.8%  
13 6% 94%  
14 1.2% 88% Last Result
15 21% 87%  
16 17% 65% Median
17 48% 48%  
18 0.6% 0.9%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Socialistische Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Socialistische Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 31% 99.7%  
11 52% 68% Median
12 13% 16%  
13 1.2% 4%  
14 0.9% 2% Last Result
15 0.5% 1.5%  
16 0.4% 0.9%  
17 0.5% 0.5%  
18 0% 0%  

Partij van de Arbeid

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij van de Arbeid page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.4% 100%  
8 11% 99.6%  
9 64% 88% Last Result, Median
10 20% 25%  
11 0.5% 4%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Forum voor Democratie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forum voor Democratie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0% 100% Last Result
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.7% 100%  
7 16% 99.2%  
8 16% 83%  
9 60% 68% Median
10 7% 8%  
11 0.5% 0.9%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

ChristenUnie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the ChristenUnie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.9%  
5 18% 98.7% Last Result
6 7% 81%  
7 3% 74%  
8 71% 71% Median
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Partij voor de Dieren

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partij voor de Dieren page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100%  
5 7% 92% Last Result
6 83% 85% Median
7 2% 3%  
8 0.7% 1.0%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

50Plus

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the 50Plus page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 3% 100%  
4 56% 97% Last Result, Median
5 36% 41%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 65% 99.7% Median
3 19% 35% Last Result
4 4% 16%  
5 11% 12%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

DENK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the DENK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 72% 99.8% Median
2 24% 28%  
3 3% 4% Last Result
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie 90 87 99.8% 81–88 80–88 79–88 77–88
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 77 76 56% 75–80 75–80 75–83 73–83
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 85 80 98% 78–81 76–81 76–82 70–84
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 80 77 85% 74–78 71–78 71–80 70–81
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 74 73 18% 71–77 71–77 71–80 70–80
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie 76 71 0.1% 69–71 66–73 65–73 61–74
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 72 64 0% 64–69 64–69 64–70 62–70
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 66 67 0% 62–67 59–68 59–68 59–69
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 71 63 0% 61–65 59–68 58–68 57–68
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 61 59 0% 59–65 59–65 59–65 55–66
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus 58 57 0% 55–62 55–62 55–62 52–62
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid 61 58 0% 54–58 53–60 52–62 51–63
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij 57 55 0% 54–60 54–60 54–60 51–60
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 61 53 0% 52–57 52–57 52–57 49–58
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie 54 53 0% 51–57 51–57 51–57 47–57
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 52 44 0% 43–47 43–49 42–49 40–49
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 47 42 0% 42–46 41–46 40–46 37–49
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid 42 39 0% 36–40 36–42 36–42 35–42
Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl 38 33 0% 32–37 31–38 30–38 28–38
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie 33 31 0% 31–33 28–33 27–34 27–37
Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid 28 24 0% 23–27 22–27 22–28 21–31

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0% 99.8% Majority
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 1.3% 99.5%  
79 3% 98%  
80 0.7% 95%  
81 6% 95%  
82 4% 89%  
83 1.0% 85%  
84 0.7% 84%  
85 18% 84%  
86 11% 65%  
87 5% 55% Median
88 50% 50%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 0.7% 99.6%  
74 0.4% 99.0%  
75 43% 98.6% Median
76 12% 56% Majority
77 17% 43% Last Result
78 11% 26%  
79 4% 16%  
80 8% 12%  
81 0.7% 4%  
82 0.1% 3%  
83 3% 3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.5% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.1% 99.1%  
73 0.3% 99.0%  
74 0.2% 98.7%  
75 1.0% 98.5%  
76 4% 98% Majority
77 3% 94%  
78 16% 91%  
79 10% 74%  
80 42% 64% Median
81 19% 22%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0% 0.1% Last Result
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Socialistische Partij – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 5% 99.5%  
72 0.2% 95%  
73 2% 95%  
74 6% 93%  
75 2% 87%  
76 0.4% 85% Majority
77 35% 85% Median
78 46% 50%  
79 0.9% 3%  
80 0.8% 3% Last Result
81 2% 2%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 11% 99.5%  
72 1.2% 88%  
73 45% 87% Median
74 1.3% 43% Last Result
75 23% 41%  
76 6% 18% Majority
77 9% 12%  
78 0.4% 3%  
79 0.1% 3%  
80 3% 3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.5% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.4%  
63 0.2% 98.9%  
64 0.3% 98.6%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 0.3% 93%  
68 0.2% 93%  
69 25% 93%  
70 7% 68%  
71 52% 61% Median
72 0.1% 9%  
73 8% 9%  
74 0.6% 0.7%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1% Last Result, Majority
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij voor de Vrijheid – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.5%  
63 0.7% 99.1%  
64 54% 98% Median
65 6% 45%  
66 17% 39%  
67 0.3% 22%  
68 10% 21%  
69 9% 12%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
73 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – GroenLinks – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 5% 99.7%  
60 1.1% 95%  
61 0.4% 94%  
62 8% 93%  
63 1.2% 86%  
64 0.6% 85%  
65 0.7% 84%  
66 8% 83% Last Result, Median
67 68% 75%  
68 5% 7%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0% 99.7%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 4% 98.9%  
59 1.2% 95%  
60 0.5% 94%  
61 16% 94%  
62 1.1% 77%  
63 56% 76% Median
64 6% 20%  
65 5% 14%  
66 0.1% 9%  
67 0.5% 9%  
68 8% 8%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0% Last Result

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.3%  
57 0.2% 98.9%  
58 0.7% 98.8%  
59 61% 98% Median
60 20% 37%  
61 3% 17% Last Result
62 1.4% 14%  
63 0.4% 13%  
64 0.9% 12%  
65 11% 11%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – 50Plus

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.3%  
54 0.2% 99.0%  
55 11% 98.8%  
56 2% 87%  
57 67% 85% Median
58 5% 19% Last Result
59 0.5% 14%  
60 1.1% 13%  
61 0.7% 12%  
62 11% 11%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Democraten 66 – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.4% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.6%  
52 3% 99.3%  
53 3% 96%  
54 16% 93%  
55 0.5% 77%  
56 2% 77%  
57 14% 75%  
58 54% 61% Median
59 2% 7%  
60 0.3% 5%  
61 0.2% 5% Last Result
62 4% 5%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie – Staatkundig Gereformeerde Partij

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.6%  
52 0.2% 99.0%  
53 0.2% 98.8%  
54 20% 98.6%  
55 48% 78% Median
56 16% 30%  
57 1.2% 14% Last Result
58 0.5% 13%  
59 0.7% 12%  
60 11% 12%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 0% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0% 99.3%  
51 0.9% 99.3%  
52 19% 98%  
53 43% 79% Median
54 19% 36%  
55 4% 17%  
56 1.1% 13%  
57 12% 12%  
58 0.1% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Forum voor Democratie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.4%  
49 0.4% 99.2%  
50 0% 98.8%  
51 11% 98.7%  
52 28% 87%  
53 45% 59% Median
54 0.8% 14% Last Result
55 1.0% 13%  
56 0.9% 12%  
57 11% 11%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 0.9% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 19% 95%  
44 56% 77% Median
45 7% 21%  
46 0.3% 13%  
47 4% 13%  
48 0.4% 9%  
49 8% 8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0% Last Result

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 1.1% 98.7%  
40 0.4% 98%  
41 3% 97%  
42 47% 94% Median
43 21% 47%  
44 11% 26%  
45 0.7% 16%  
46 12% 15%  
47 0.3% 2% Last Result
48 2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.5%  
50 0% 0%  

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie – Partij van de Arbeid

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 19% 99.2%  
37 7% 80%  
38 9% 73%  
39 54% 64% Median
40 3% 11%  
41 1.1% 8%  
42 6% 7% Last Result
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Democraten 66 – Christen-Democratisch Appèl

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.7%  
29 0.7% 98.8%  
30 1.2% 98%  
31 4% 97%  
32 6% 93%  
33 43% 88% Median
34 26% 45%  
35 3% 18%  
36 2% 15%  
37 5% 13%  
38 8% 8% Last Result
39 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid – ChristenUnie

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 5% 99.7%  
28 1.3% 95%  
29 0.4% 94%  
30 2% 93%  
31 46% 91% Median
32 10% 45%  
33 32% 36% Last Result
34 1.4% 4%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.1% 0.6%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0% 0%  

Christen-Democratisch Appèl – Partij van de Arbeid

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 1.1% 99.9%  
22 5% 98.9%  
23 42% 94% Median
24 2% 52%  
25 29% 50%  
26 6% 21%  
27 12% 15%  
28 0.3% 3% Last Result
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.7%  
31 0.5% 0.5%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations